/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\ DAILY SUMMARY OF SOLAR GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY 17 SEPTEMBER, 1995 /\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\ (Based In-Part On SESC Observational Data) SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY INDICES FOR 17 SEPTEMBER, 1995 ------------------------------------------------------------- NOTE: The greater than 2 MeV electron fluence was moderate today. !!BEGIN!! (1.0) S.T.D. Solar Geophysical Data Broadcast for DAY 260, 09/17/95 10.7 FLUX=069.8 90-AVG=073 SSN=000 BKI=2212 1100 BAI=003 BGND-XRAY=A1.7 FLU1=7.3E+04 FLU10=1.7E+04 PKI=3212 2121 PAI=006 BOU-DEV=010,010,006,014,009,006,003,004 DEV-AVG=007 NT SWF=00:000 XRAY-MAX= B5.6 @ 1750UT XRAY-MIN= A1.4 @ 0633UT XRAY-AVG= A4.4 NEUTN-MAX= +003% @ 0355UT NEUTN-MIN= -002% @ 2100UT NEUTN-AVG= +0.4% PCA-MAX= +0.1DB @ 1750UT PCA-MIN= -0.2DB @ 0955UT PCA-AVG= -0.0DB BOUTF-MAX=55310NT @ 2341UT BOUTF-MIN=55237NT @ 0052UT BOUTF-AVG=55262NT GOES7-MAX=P:+000NT@ 0000UT GOES7-MIN=N:+000NT@ 0000UT G7-AVG=+071,+000,+000 GOES6-MAX=P:+000NT@ 0000UT GOES6-MIN=N:+000NT@ 0000UT G6-AVG=+000,+000,+000 FLUXFCST=STD:070,070,072;SESC:070,070,072 BAI/PAI-FCST=005,010,010/008,010,010 KFCST=2133 3111 2134 4111 27DAY-AP=004,007 27DAY-KP=1112 1221 1010 2224 WARNINGS= ALERTS= !!END-DATA!! NOTE: The Effective Sunspot Number for 16 SEP 95 was 15.9. The Full Kp Indices for 17 SEP 95 are: 3- 2- 1+ 2o 2- 1o 2+ 1o The 3-Hr Ap Indices for 17 SEP 95 are: 11 6 5 7 6 4 9 4 Greater than 2 MeV Electron Fluence for 17 SEP is: 7.7E+07 DRAO 10.7 cm Solar Radio Flux at 18Z, 20Z, 22Z: 69.0, 69.8, 70.3 sfu. SYNOPSIS OF ACTIVITY -------------------- Solar activity was very low. There are no sunspot Regions currently on the visible solar disk. An eruptive prominence on the northeast limb near N17 was associated with a B5 x-ray flare at 17/1749Z. Solar activity forecast: solar activity is expected to be very low. STD: There was no solar WIND data today as the spacecraft continues to transit the magnetosphere. Some data should become available tommorrow. Recent Yohkoh x-ray imagery shows a small to moderate region of enhanced x-ray emissions on the northeast limb. A few interesting larger loop structures are also visible a fair distance north of the unnumbered region as well. The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled. Geophysical activity forecast: the geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled. Event probabilities 18 sep-20 sep Class M 01/01/01 Class X 01/01/01 Proton 01/01/01 PCAF Green Geomagnetic activity probabilities 18 sep-20 sep A. Middle Latitudes Active 15/15/15 Minor Storm 10/10/10 Major-Severe Storm 05/05/05 B. High Latitudes Active 15/15/15 Minor Storm 10/10/10 Major-Severe Storm 05/05/05 HF propagation conditions were normal over all regions. Normal propagation should continue through 20 September inclusive. ENERGETIC ELECTRON FLUENCE 60-DAY HISTORY AT GREATER THAN 2 MEV ------!-----+--------------------!---------+---------------- 3.75E+09|......+... ......................+....... ...... ... ......|V. HIGH 2.16E+09|......+... ................V.....+....... ...... ..V ..V...|V. HIGH 1.25E+09|......+... ...............VV.....+....... ...... ..V ..V...|V. HIGH 7.18E+08|......+... ...............VVH....+....... ...... ..V .HV...|High 4.14E+08|HHHH..+... ...............VVH....+....... ...... HHV HHV...|Moderate 2.38E+08|HHHH..+... .........M.MM..VVH....+....... ...... HHV HHVM..| 1.37E+08|HHHH..+... .........MMMM..VVH....+....... ...... HHV HHVM..| 7.92E+07|HHHH..+... .........MMMMMMVVH....+....... ...... HHV HHVMM.| 4.56E+07|HHHH..+... .........MMMMMMVVH....+....... ...... HHV HHVMMM|Normal 2.63E+07|HHHHN.+... .........MMMMMMVVH.N..n...NN.. ...... HHV HHVMMM| 1.52E+07|HHHHN.+... .........MMMMMMVVHNNNNn...NNN. ...... HHV HHVMMM| 8.74E+06|HHHHN.nNN. .........MMMMMMVVHNNNNn...NNN. ...... HHV HHVMMM| 5.04E+06|HHHHNNnNNN .........MMMMMMVVHNNNNn...NNNN NNN... HHV HHVMMM| 2.91E+06|HHHHNNnNNN NNN......MMMMMMVVHNNNNnNNNNNNN NNN... HHV HHVMMM| 1.68E+06|HHHHNNnNNN NNNNNNNNNMMMMMMVVHNNNNnNNNNNNN NNNNNN HHV HHVMMM| 9.73E+05|HHHHNNnNNN NNNNNNNNNMMMMMMVVHNNNNnNNNNNNN NNNNNN HHV HHVMMM| ------!-----+--------------------!---------+---------------- Aug Sep NOTES: "V" = Very High Fluence, "H" = High Fluence, etc, " " = No Data, "!" = Solar rotational boundary periods from current date. Electron fluence is flux integrated over time in units of cm^-2 day^-1 sr^-1 as measured by GOES-8. Fluence values that are moderate or higher have been correlated with satellite anomalies. Sustained high to very high fluence has been correlated with serious malfunctions. COPIES OF JOINT USAF/NOAA SESC SOLAR GEOPHYSICAL REPORTS ======================================================== REGIONS WITH SUNSPOTS. LOCATIONS VALID AT 17/2400Z SEPTEMBER ------------------------------------------------------------ NMBR LOCATION LO AREA Z LL NN MAG TYPE NONE REGIONS DUE TO RETURN 18 SEPTEMBER TO 20 SEPTEMBER NMBR LAT LO 7904 N05 052 LISTING OF SOLAR ENERGETIC EVENTS FOR 17 SEPTEMBER, 1995 -------------------------------------------------------- BEGIN MAX END RGN LOC XRAY OP 245MHZ 10CM SWEEP NONE POSSIBLE CORONAL MASS EJECTION EVENTS FOR 17 SEPTEMBER, 1995 ------------------------------------------------------------ BEGIN MAX END LOCATION TYPE SIZE DUR II IV 17/B1808 1815 N17E90 EPL B5.6 14 INFERRED CORONAL HOLES. LOCATIONS VALID AT 17/2400Z --------------------------------------------------- ISOLATED HOLES AND POLAR EXTENSIONS EAST SOUTH WEST NORTH CAR TYPE POL AREA OBSN NONE VISIBLE SUMMARY OF FLARE EVENTS FOR THE PREVIOUS UTC DAY ------------------------------------------------ Date Begin Max End Xray Op Region Locn 2695 MHz 8800 MHz 15.4 GHz ------ ---- ---- ---- ---- -- ------ ------ --------- --------- --------- 16 Sep: 1430 1437 1443 B2.4 1650 1656 1726 B3.4 REGION FLARE STATISTICS FOR THE PREVIOUS UTC DAY ------------------------------------------------ C M X S 1 2 3 4 Total (%) -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- --- ------ Uncorrellated: 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 002 (100.0) Total Events: 002 optical and x-ray. EVENTS WITH SWEEPS AND/OR OPTICAL PHENOMENA FOR THE LAST UTC DAY ---------------------------------------------------------------- Date Begin Max End Xray Op Region Locn Sweeps/Optical Observations ------ ---- ---- ---- ---- -- ------ ------ --------------------------- NO EVENTS OBSERVED. NOTES: All times are in Universal Time (UT). Characters preceding begin, max, and end times are defined as: B = Before, U = Uncertain, A = After. All times associated with x-ray flares (ex. flares which produce associated x-ray bursts) refer to the begin, max, and end times of the x-rays. Flares which are not associated with x-ray signatures use the optical observations to determine the begin, max, and end times. Acronyms used to identify sweeps and optical phenomena include: II = Type II Sweep Frequency Event III = Type III Sweep IV = Type IV Sweep V = Type V Sweep Continuum = Continuum Radio Event Loop = Loop Prominence System, Spray = Limb Spray, Surge = Bright Limb Surge, EPL = Eruptive Prominence on the Limb. ** End of Daily Report ** /\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\ DAILY SUMMARY OF SOLAR GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY 18 SEPTEMBER, 1995 /\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\ (Based In-Part On SESC Observational Data) SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY INDICES FOR 18 SEPTEMBER, 1995 ------------------------------------------------------------- NOTE: The greater than 2 MeV electron fluence was moderate today. !!BEGIN!! (1.0) S.T.D. Solar Geophysical Data Broadcast for DAY 261, 09/18/95 10.7 FLUX=071.6 90-AVG=073 SSN=000 BKI=1101 1001 BAI=001 BGND-XRAY=A2.9 FLU1=8.3E+04 FLU10=1.7E+04 PKI=1111 1122 PAI=004 BOU-DEV=005,006,003,008,008,003,003,007 DEV-AVG=005 NT SWF=00:000 XRAY-MAX= B4.3 @ 0944UT XRAY-MIN= A2.8 @ 0047UT XRAY-AVG= A6.3 NEUTN-MAX= +003% @ 0345UT NEUTN-MIN= -001% @ 0810UT NEUTN-AVG= +0.6% PCA-MAX= +0.1DB @ 1410UT PCA-MIN= -0.3DB @ 1200UT PCA-AVG= -0.0DB BOUTF-MAX=55401NT @ 0319UT BOUTF-MIN=55270NT @ 1617UT BOUTF-AVG=55304NT GOES7-MAX=P:+000NT@ 0000UT GOES7-MIN=N:+000NT@ 0000UT G7-AVG=+073,+000,+000 GOES6-MAX=P:+000NT@ 0000UT GOES6-MIN=N:+000NT@ 0000UT G6-AVG=+000,+000,+000 FLUXFCST=STD:074,076,076;SESC:074,076,076 BAI/PAI-FCST=005,010,010/008,008,010 KFCST=*133 3111 2134 4111 27DAY-AP=007,015 27DAY-KP=1010 2224 4444 1122 WARNINGS= ALERTS= !!END-DATA!! NOTE: The Effective Sunspot Number for 17 SEP 95 was 13.0. The Full Kp Indices for 18 SEP 95 are: 1o 1+ 1o 1+ 1o 1- 2o 2- The 3-Hr Ap Indices for 18 SEP 95 are: 4 5 4 5 4 3 9 6 Greater than 2 MeV Electron Fluence for 18 SEP is: 2.2E+08 DRAO 10.7 cm Solar Radio Flux at 18Z, 20Z, 22Z: 71.0, 71.6, 72.0 sfu. SYNOPSIS OF ACTIVITY -------------------- Solar activity was very low. No sunspot regions are currently on the visible disk. Several B-class flares occurred. The largest was a B4 at 18/0943Z. No optical flare was observed but a likely candidate location is near NE10 where H-alpha and x-ray imagery suggests a new region may be rotating around the northeast limb. STD: Frequent surging continued to be observed on the northeast limb between N04 and N13. The most frequent surges were reported near N04 to N07. A moderately large eruptive prominence was observed from N04E90 from 20:27 to 20:55 UTC and was correlated with a class B1.1 x-ray burst. There was no solar WIND observations available today. Data is expected to return on 19 September. Solar activity forecast: solar activity is expected to be very low. The geomagnetic field was quiet. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at GOES-8 was moderate to high. Geophysical activity forecast: the geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled. Event probabilities 19 sep-21 sep Class M 01/01/01 Class X 01/01/01 Proton 01/01/01 PCAF Green Geomagnetic activity probabilities 19 sep-21 sep A. Middle Latitudes Active 10/10/10 Minor Storm 05/05/05 Major-Severe Storm 01/01/01 B. High Latitudes Active 10/10/10 Minor Storm 05/05/05 Major-Severe Storm 01/01/01 HF propagation conditions were normal over all regions. Normal conditions should continue through 21 September inclusive. ENERGETIC ELECTRON FLUENCE 60-DAY HISTORY AT GREATER THAN 2 MEV ------!----+---------------------!--------+----------------- 3.75E+09|......+.. .......................+...... ...... ... .......|V. HIGH 2.16E+09|......+.. ................V......+...... ...... ..V ..V....|V. HIGH 1.25E+09|......+.. ...............VV......+...... ...... ..V ..V....|V. HIGH 7.18E+08|......+.. ...............VVH.....+...... ...... ..V .HV....|High 4.14E+08|HHH...+.. ...............VVH.....+...... ...... HHV HHV....|Moderate 2.38E+08|HHH...+.. .........M.MM..VVH.....+...... ...... HHV HHVM...| 1.37E+08|HHH...+.. .........MMMM..VVH.....+...... ...... HHV HHVM..M| 7.92E+07|HHH...+.. .........MMMMMMVVH.....+...... ...... HHV HHVMM.M| 4.56E+07|HHH...+.. .........MMMMMMVVH.....+...... ...... HHV HHVMMMM|Normal 2.63E+07|HHHN..+.. .........MMMMMMVVH.N..N+..NN.. ...... HHV HHVMMMM| 1.52E+07|HHHN..+.. .........MMMMMMVVHNNNNN+..NNN. ...... HHV HHVMMMM| 8.74E+06|HHHN.NnN. .........MMMMMMVVHNNNNN+..NNN. ...... HHV HHVMMMM| 5.04E+06|HHHNNNnNN .........MMMMMMVVHNNNNN+..NNNN NNN... HHV HHVMMMM| 2.91E+06|HHHNNNnNN NNN......MMMMMMVVHNNNNNnNNNNNN NNN... HHV HHVMMMM| 1.68E+06|HHHNNNnNN NNNNNNNNNMMMMMMVVHNNNNNnNNNNNN NNNNNN HHV HHVMMMM| 9.73E+05|HHHNNNnNN NNNNNNNNNMMMMMMVVHNNNNNnNNNNNN NNNNNN HHV HHVMMMM| ------!----+---------------------!--------+----------------- Aug Sep NOTES: "V" = Very High Fluence, "H" = High Fluence, etc, " " = No Data, "!" = Solar rotational boundary periods from current date. Electron fluence is flux integrated over time in units of cm^-2 day^-1 sr^-1 as measured by GOES-8. Fluence values that are moderate or higher have been correlated with satellite anomalies. Sustained high to very high fluence has been correlated with serious malfunctions. COPIES OF JOINT USAF/NOAA SESC SOLAR GEOPHYSICAL REPORTS ======================================================== REGIONS WITH SUNSPOTS. LOCATIONS VALID AT 18/2400Z SEPTEMBER ------------------------------------------------------------ NMBR LOCATION LO AREA Z LL NN MAG TYPE NONE REGIONS DUE TO RETURN 19 SEPTEMBER TO 21 SEPTEMBER NMBR LAT LO 7904 N05 052 7903 N03 025 LISTING OF SOLAR ENERGETIC EVENTS FOR 18 SEPTEMBER, 1995 -------------------------------------------------------- BEGIN MAX END RGN LOC XRAY OP 245MHZ 10CM SWEEP NONE POSSIBLE CORONAL MASS EJECTION EVENTS FOR 18 SEPTEMBER, 1995 ------------------------------------------------------------ BEGIN MAX END LOCATION TYPE SIZE DUR II IV 18/ 2027 B2055 N04E90 EPL B1.1 9 INFERRED CORONAL HOLES. LOCATIONS VALID AT 18/2400Z --------------------------------------------------- ISOLATED HOLES AND POLAR EXTENSIONS EAST SOUTH WEST NORTH CAR TYPE POL AREA OBSN NONE VISIBLE SUMMARY OF FLARE EVENTS FOR THE PREVIOUS UTC DAY ------------------------------------------------ Date Begin Max End Xray Op Region Locn 2695 MHz 8800 MHz 15.4 GHz ------ ---- ---- ---- ---- -- ------ ------ --------- --------- --------- 16 Sep: 1430 1437 1443 B2.4 1650 1656 1726 B3.4 17 Sep: 1252 1302 1315 B4.6 1744 1749 1758 B5.6 REGION FLARE STATISTICS FOR THE PREVIOUS UTC DAY ------------------------------------------------ C M X S 1 2 3 4 Total (%) -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- --- ------ Uncorrellated: 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 004 (100.0) Total Events: 004 optical and x-ray. EVENTS WITH SWEEPS AND/OR OPTICAL PHENOMENA FOR THE LAST UTC DAY ---------------------------------------------------------------- Date Begin Max End Xray Op Region Locn Sweeps/Optical Observations ------ ---- ---- ---- ---- -- ------ ------ --------------------------- 17 Sep: 1252 1302 1315 B4.6 V 1744 1749 1758 B5.6 Surge NOTES: All times are in Universal Time (UT). Characters preceding begin, max, and end times are defined as: B = Before, U = Uncertain, A = After. All times associated with x-ray flares (ex. flares which produce associated x-ray bursts) refer to the begin, max, and end times of the x-rays. Flares which are not associated with x-ray signatures use the optical observations to determine the begin, max, and end times. Acronyms used to identify sweeps and optical phenomena include: II = Type II Sweep Frequency Event III = Type III Sweep IV = Type IV Sweep V = Type V Sweep Continuum = Continuum Radio Event Loop = Loop Prominence System, Spray = Limb Spray, Surge = Bright Limb Surge, EPL = Eruptive Prominence on the Limb. ** End of Daily Report ** /\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\ DAILY SUMMARY OF SOLAR GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY 19 SEPTEMBER, 1995 /\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\ (Based In-Part On SESC Observational Data) SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY INDICES FOR 19 SEPTEMBER, 1995 ------------------------------------------------------------- NOTE: The greater than 2 MeV electron fluence was moderate today. !!BEGIN!! (1.0) S.T.D. Solar Geophysical Data Broadcast for DAY 262, 09/19/95 10.7 FLUX=073.6 90-AVG=073 SSN=018 BKI=1111 1011 BAI=002 BGND-XRAY=A7.0 FLU1=1.2E+05 FLU10=1.7E+04 PKI=1111 1111 PAI=004 BOU-DEV=005,007,009,006,005,003,005,005 DEV-AVG=005 NT SWF=00:000 XRAY-MAX= B1.9 @ 2356UT XRAY-MIN= A2.0 @ 1329UT XRAY-AVG= A3.5 NEUTN-MAX= +001% @ 1420UT NEUTN-MIN= -002% @ 2330UT NEUTN-AVG= -0.1% PCA-MAX= +0.1DB @ 1545UT PCA-MIN= -0.1DB @ 2340UT PCA-AVG= -0.0DB BOUTF-MAX=55281NT @ 1324UT BOUTF-MIN=55214NT @ 2359UT BOUTF-AVG=55273NT GOES7-MAX=P:+000NT@ 0000UT GOES7-MIN=N:+000NT@ 0000UT G7-AVG=+069,+000,+000 GOES6-MAX=P:+000NT@ 0000UT GOES6-MIN=N:+000NT@ 0000UT G6-AVG=+000,+000,+000 FLUXFCST=STD:076,078,080;SESC:076,078,080 BAI/PAI-FCST=005,005,010/005,005,005 KFCST=2122 2111 2133 3111 27DAY-AP=015,007 27DAY-KP=4444 1122 2111 2223 WARNINGS= ALERTS= !!END-DATA!! NOTE: The Effective Sunspot Number for 18 SEP 95 is not available. The Full Kp Indices for 19 SEP 95 are: 1+ 1+ 1+ 1o 1o 1+ 1o 1o The 3-Hr Ap Indices for 19 SEP 95 are: 5 5 5 4 4 5 4 4 Greater than 2 MeV Electron Fluence for 19 SEP is: 1.4E+08 DRAO 10.7 cm Solar Radio Flux at 18Z, 20Z, 22Z: N/A, 73.6, 74.1 sfu. SYNOPSIS OF ACTIVITY -------------------- Solar activity was very low. The largest flare since yesterday was a B7 at 18/2358Z. Although this flare had no reported optical correlation, a likely source is new Region 7907 (N09E71). This region is rotating into view as a C or D-class sunspot group. All of the region should be visible by tomorrow. Solar activity forecast: solar activity is expected to be very low to low. Region 7907 may produce small C-class flares. STD: Solar WIND data was received from 01:05 to 03:46 UTC and again from 12:09 to 15:43 UTC. Observations during these periods indicated a solar wind velocity of about 310 km/sec, a density of about 12 p/cm^3 and a Bz IMF component that was mostly northward near +2 nT. A 10-degree filament disappeared sometime between 00:18 and 13:41 from S27E19. Surging and prominence activity continued to be observed on and near the northeast limb near N04. The geomagnetic field was quiet. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux measured at GOES-8 was moderate to high. Geophysical activity forecast: the geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled for the next three days. Event probabilities 20 sep-22 sep Class M 01/01/01 Class X 01/01/01 Proton 01/01/01 PCAF Green Geomagnetic activity probabilities 20 sep-22 sep A. Middle Latitudes Active 05/05/10 Minor Storm 05/05/05 Major-Severe Storm 01/01/01 B. High Latitudes Active 05/05/10 Minor Storm 05/05/05 Major-Severe Storm 01/01/01 HF propagation conditions were normal over all regions. Normal conditions should continue through 22 September inclusive. ENERGETIC ELECTRON FLUENCE 60-DAY HISTORY AT GREATER THAN 2 MEV ------!---+----------------------!-------+------------------ 3.75E+09|......+. ........................+..... ...... ... ........|V. HIGH 2.16E+09|......+. ................V.......+..... ...... ..V ..V.....|V. HIGH 1.25E+09|......+. ...............VV.......+..... ...... ..V ..V.....|V. HIGH 7.18E+08|......+. ...............VVH......+..... ...... ..V .HV.....|High 4.14E+08|HH....+. ...............VVH......+..... ...... HHV HHV.....|Moderate 2.38E+08|HH....+. .........M.MM..VVH......+..... ...... HHV HHVM....| 1.37E+08|HH....+. .........MMMM..VVH......+..... ...... HHV HHVM..MM| 7.92E+07|HH....+. .........MMMMMMVVH......+..... ...... HHV HHVMM.MM| 4.56E+07|HH....+. .........MMMMMMVVH......+..... ...... HHV HHVMMMMM|Normal 2.63E+07|HHN...+. .........MMMMMMVVH.N..N.+.NN.. ...... HHV HHVMMMMM| 1.52E+07|HHN...+. .........MMMMMMVVHNNNNN.+.NNN. ...... HHV HHVMMMMM| 8.74E+06|HHN.NNn. .........MMMMMMVVHNNNNN.+.NNN. ...... HHV HHVMMMMM| 5.04E+06|HHNNNNnN .........MMMMMMVVHNNNNN.+.NNNN NNN... HHV HHVMMMMM| 2.91E+06|HHNNNNnN NNN......MMMMMMVVHNNNNNNnNNNNN NNN... HHV HHVMMMMM| 1.68E+06|HHNNNNnN NNNNNNNNNMMMMMMVVHNNNNNNnNNNNN NNNNNN HHV HHVMMMMM| 9.73E+05|HHNNNNnN NNNNNNNNNMMMMMMVVHNNNNNNnNNNNN NNNNNN HHV HHVMMMMM| ------!---+----------------------!-------+------------------ Aug Sep NOTES: "V" = Very High Fluence, "H" = High Fluence, etc, " " = No Data, "!" = Solar rotational boundary periods from current date. Electron fluence is flux integrated over time in units of cm^-2 day^-1 sr^-1 as measured by GOES-8. Fluence values that are moderate or higher have been correlated with satellite anomalies. Sustained high to very high fluence has been correlated with serious malfunctions. COPIES OF JOINT USAF/NOAA SESC SOLAR GEOPHYSICAL REPORTS ======================================================== REGIONS WITH SUNSPOTS. LOCATIONS VALID AT 19/2400Z SEPTEMBER ------------------------------------------------------------ NMBR LOCATION LO AREA Z LL NN MAG TYPE 7907 N09E71 059 0100 CSO 04 008 BETA REGIONS DUE TO RETURN 20 SEPTEMBER TO 22 SEPTEMBER NMBR LAT LO 7903 N03 025 LISTING OF SOLAR ENERGETIC EVENTS FOR 19 SEPTEMBER, 1995 -------------------------------------------------------- BEGIN MAX END RGN LOC XRAY OP 245MHZ 10CM SWEEP NONE POSSIBLE CORONAL MASS EJECTION EVENTS FOR 19 SEPTEMBER, 1995 ------------------------------------------------------------ BEGIN MAX END LOCATION TYPE SIZE DUR II IV 19/A0018 B1341 S27E19 DSF INFERRED CORONAL HOLES. LOCATIONS VALID AT 19/2400Z --------------------------------------------------- ISOLATED HOLES AND POLAR EXTENSIONS EAST SOUTH WEST NORTH CAR TYPE POL AREA OBSN NO DATA SUMMARY OF FLARE EVENTS FOR THE PREVIOUS UTC DAY ------------------------------------------------ Date Begin Max End Xray Op Region Locn 2695 MHz 8800 MHz 15.4 GHz ------ ---- ---- ---- ---- -- ------ ------ --------- --------- --------- 16 Sep: 1430 1437 1443 B2.4 1650 1656 1726 B3.4 17 Sep: 1252 1302 1315 B4.6 1744 1749 1758 B5.6 18 Sep: 0714 0725 0740 B1.4 0933 0943 0950 B4.3 1150 1159 1212 B4.1 1838 1847 1902 B1.3 2007 2012 2016 B1.1 2343 2358 0019 B7.6 REGION FLARE STATISTICS FOR THE PREVIOUS UTC DAY ------------------------------------------------ C M X S 1 2 3 4 Total (%) -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- --- ------ Uncorrellated: 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 010 (100.0) Total Events: 010 optical and x-ray. EVENTS WITH SWEEPS AND/OR OPTICAL PHENOMENA FOR THE LAST UTC DAY ---------------------------------------------------------------- Date Begin Max End Xray Op Region Locn Sweeps/Optical Observations ------ ---- ---- ---- ---- -- ------ ------ --------------------------- 17 Sep: 1252 1302 1315 B4.6 V 1744 1749 1758 B5.6 Surge 18 Sep: 1150 1159 1212 B4.1 V 1838 1847 1902 B1.3 V 2007 2012 2016 B1.1 Surge 2343 2358 0019 B7.6 III,V NOTES: All times are in Universal Time (UT). Characters preceding begin, max, and end times are defined as: B = Before, U = Uncertain, A = After. All times associated with x-ray flares (ex. flares which produce associated x-ray bursts) refer to the begin, max, and end times of the x-rays. Flares which are not associated with x-ray signatures use the optical observations to determine the begin, max, and end times. Acronyms used to identify sweeps and optical phenomena include: II = Type II Sweep Frequency Event III = Type III Sweep IV = Type IV Sweep V = Type V Sweep Continuum = Continuum Radio Event Loop = Loop Prominence System, Spray = Limb Spray, Surge = Bright Limb Surge, EPL = Eruptive Prominence on the Limb. ** End of Daily Report ** /\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\ DAILY SUMMARY OF SOLAR GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY 20 SEPTEMBER, 1995 /\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\ (Based In-Part On SESC Observational Data) SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY INDICES FOR 20 SEPTEMBER, 1995 ------------------------------------------------------------- !!BEGIN!! (1.0) S.T.D. Solar Geophysical Data Broadcast for DAY 263, 09/20/95 10.7 FLUX=075.5 90-AVG=073 SSN=020 BKI=1222 2223 BAI=007 BGND-XRAY=A5.4 FLU1=2.0E+05 FLU10=1.8E+04 PKI=2232 2213 PAI=008 BOU-DEV=005,012,014,014,013,016,013,020 DEV-AVG=013 NT SWF=00:000 XRAY-MAX= C3.0 @ 1056UT XRAY-MIN= A3.0 @ 2200UT XRAY-AVG= A6.7 NEUTN-MAX= +001% @ 2350UT NEUTN-MIN= -002% @ 2330UT NEUTN-AVG= -0.1% PCA-MAX= +0.0DB @ 2355UT PCA-MIN= -0.1DB @ 2325UT PCA-AVG= -0.0DB BOUTF-MAX=55224NT @ 2216UT BOUTF-MIN=55202NT @ 1946UT BOUTF-AVG=55213NT GOES7-MAX=P:+000NT@ 0000UT GOES7-MIN=N:+000NT@ 0000UT G7-AVG=+102,+000,+000 GOES6-MAX=P:+000NT@ 0000UT GOES6-MIN=N:+000NT@ 0000UT G6-AVG=+000,+000,+000 FLUXFCST=STD:078,080,080;SESC:078,080,080 BAI/PAI-FCST=010,010,010/010,012,010 KFCST=2134 4111 2134 4111 27DAY-AP=007,020 27DAY-KP=2111 2223 4445 2233 WARNINGS= ALERTS= !!END-DATA!! NOTE: The Effective Sunspot Number for 19 SEP 95 was 13.0. The Full Kp Indices for 20 SEP 95 are: 2- 2+ 3+ 2- 2+ 2- 1+ 3- The 3-Hr Ap Indices for 20 SEP 95 are: 6 10 19 6 9 6 5 13 Greater than 2 MeV Electron Fluence for 20 SEP is: 2.0E+07 DRAO 10.7 cm Solar Radio Flux at 18Z, 20Z, 22Z: 74.8, 75.5, 75.1 sfu. SYNOPSIS OF ACTIVITY -------------------- Solar activity was low. Region 7907 (N05E61) produced a C3/SN flare at 20/1056Z. Several small B-class flares also occurred. These flares may have originated in 7907 as well, although no optical flares were reported. Solar activity forecast: solar activity is expected to be very low to low. Additional C-class activity in Region 7907 is possible. The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled at most locations. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at GOES-8 ranged from normal background to moderate levels. Geophysical activity forecast: the geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled. Event probabilities 21 sep-23 sep Class M 01/01/01 Class X 01/01/01 Proton 01/01/01 PCAF Green Geomagnetic activity probabilities 21 sep-23 sep A. Middle Latitudes Active 10/10/15 Minor Storm 05/05/10 Major-Severe Storm 01/01/05 B. High Latitudes Active 10/10/15 Minor Storm 05/05/10 Major-Severe Storm 01/01/05 HF propagation conditions were normal over all regions. Normal propagation is expected to continue through 23 September inclusive. ENERGETIC ELECTRON FLUENCE 60-DAY HISTORY AT GREATER THAN 2 MEV ------!--+-----------------------!------+------------------- 3.75E+09|......+ .........................+.... ...... ... .........|V. HIGH 2.16E+09|......+ ................V........+.... ...... ..V ..V......|V. HIGH 1.25E+09|......+ ...............VV........+.... ...... ..V ..V......|V. HIGH 7.18E+08|......+ ...............VVH.......+.... ...... ..V .HV......|High 4.14E+08|H.....+ ...............VVH.......+.... ...... HHV HHV......|Moderate 2.38E+08|H.....+ .........M.MM..VVH.......+.... ...... HHV HHVM.....| 1.37E+08|H.....+ .........MMMM..VVH.......+.... ...... HHV HHVM..MM.| 7.92E+07|H.....+ .........MMMMMMVVH.......+.... ...... HHV HHVMM.MM.| 4.56E+07|H.....+ .........MMMMMMVVH.......+.... ...... HHV HHVMMMMM.|Normal 2.63E+07|HN....+ .........MMMMMMVVH.N..N..+NN.. ...... HHV HHVMMMMM.| 1.52E+07|HN....+ .........MMMMMMVVHNNNNN..+NNN. ...... HHV HHVMMMMMN| 8.74E+06|HN.NNN+ .........MMMMMMVVHNNNNN..+NNN. ...... HHV HHVMMMMMN| 5.04E+06|HNNNNNn .........MMMMMMVVHNNNNN..+NNNN NNN... HHV HHVMMMMMN| 2.91E+06|HNNNNNn NNN......MMMMMMVVHNNNNNNNnNNNN NNN... HHV HHVMMMMMN| 1.68E+06|HNNNNNn NNNNNNNNNMMMMMMVVHNNNNNNNnNNNN NNNNNN HHV HHVMMMMMN| 9.73E+05|HNNNNNn NNNNNNNNNMMMMMMVVHNNNNNNNnNNNN NNNNNN HHV HHVMMMMMN| ------!--+-----------------------!------+------------------- Aug Sep NOTES: "V" = Very High Fluence, "H" = High Fluence, etc, " " = No Data, "!" = Solar rotational boundary periods from current date. Electron fluence is flux integrated over time in units of cm^-2 day^-1 sr^-1 as measured by GOES-8. Fluence values that are moderate or higher have been correlated with satellite anomalies. Sustained high to very high fluence has been correlated with serious malfunctions. COPIES OF JOINT USAF/NOAA SESC SOLAR GEOPHYSICAL REPORTS ======================================================== REGIONS WITH SUNSPOTS. LOCATIONS VALID AT 20/2400Z SEPTEMBER ------------------------------------------------------------ NMBR LOCATION LO AREA Z LL NN MAG TYPE 7907 N05E61 055 0120 EAO 12 010 BETA REGIONS DUE TO RETURN 21 SEPTEMBER TO 23 SEPTEMBER NMBR LAT LO 7903 N03 025 LISTING OF SOLAR ENERGETIC EVENTS FOR 20 SEPTEMBER, 1995 -------------------------------------------------------- BEGIN MAX END RGN LOC XRAY OP 245MHZ 10CM SWEEP NONE POSSIBLE CORONAL MASS EJECTION EVENTS FOR 20 SEPTEMBER, 1995 ------------------------------------------------------------ BEGIN MAX END LOCATION TYPE SIZE DUR II IV NO DATA INFERRED CORONAL HOLES. LOCATIONS VALID AT 20/2400Z --------------------------------------------------- ISOLATED HOLES AND POLAR EXTENSIONS EAST SOUTH WEST NORTH CAR TYPE POL AREA OBSN NO DATA SUMMARY OF FLARE EVENTS FOR THE PREVIOUS UTC DAY ------------------------------------------------ Date Begin Max End Xray Op Region Locn 2695 MHz 8800 MHz 15.4 GHz ------ ---- ---- ---- ---- -- ------ ------ --------- --------- --------- 16 Sep: 1430 1437 1443 B2.4 1650 1656 1726 B3.4 17 Sep: 1252 1302 1315 B4.6 1744 1749 1758 B5.6 18 Sep: 0714 0725 0740 B1.4 0933 0943 0950 B4.3 1150 1159 1212 B4.1 1838 1847 1902 B1.3 2007 2012 2016 B1.1 2343 2358 0019 B7.6 19 Sep: 1523 1523 1526 SF 7907 N08E80 2056 2101 2107 B1.3 2351 2355 0000 B1.9 REGION FLARE STATISTICS FOR THE PREVIOUS UTC DAY ------------------------------------------------ C M X S 1 2 3 4 Total (%) -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- --- ------ Region 7907: 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 001 ( 7.7) Uncorrellated: 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 012 (92.3) Total Events: 013 optical and x-ray. EVENTS WITH SWEEPS AND/OR OPTICAL PHENOMENA FOR THE LAST UTC DAY ---------------------------------------------------------------- Date Begin Max End Xray Op Region Locn Sweeps/Optical Observations ------ ---- ---- ---- ---- -- ------ ------ --------------------------- 17 Sep: 1252 1302 1315 B4.6 V 1744 1749 1758 B5.6 Surge 18 Sep: 1150 1159 1212 B4.1 V 1838 1847 1902 B1.3 V 2007 2012 2016 B1.1 Surge 2343 2358 0019 B7.6 III,V NOTES: All times are in Universal Time (UT). Characters preceding begin, max, and end times are defined as: B = Before, U = Uncertain, A = After. All times associated with x-ray flares (ex. flares which produce associated x-ray bursts) refer to the begin, max, and end times of the x-rays. Flares which are not associated with x-ray signatures use the optical observations to determine the begin, max, and end times. Acronyms used to identify sweeps and optical phenomena include: II = Type II Sweep Frequency Event III = Type III Sweep IV = Type IV Sweep V = Type V Sweep Continuum = Continuum Radio Event Loop = Loop Prominence System, Spray = Limb Spray, Surge = Bright Limb Surge, EPL = Eruptive Prominence on the Limb. ** End of Daily Report ** /\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\ DAILY SUMMARY OF SOLAR GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY 21 SEPTEMBER, 1995 /\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\ (Based In-Part On SESC Observational Data) SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY INDICES FOR 21 SEPTEMBER, 1995 ------------------------------------------------------------- NOTE: A serious power outage affecting the Boulder area has resulted in numerous data outages which have affected the generation of these reports. We apologies for the delays. The background x-ray flux and sunspot numbers are estimated. Magnetic A and K-indices are not yet fully available and will therefore be in error. !!BEGIN!! (1.0) S.T.D. Solar Geophysical Data Broadcast for DAY 264, 09/21/95 10.7 FLUX=073.9 90-AVG=073 SSN=020 BKI=2*01 ***2 BAI=004 BGND-XRAY=A3.0 FLU1=*.*E+** FLU10=*.*E+** PKI=3*** **3* PAI=010 BOU-DEV=017,***,002,006,***,***,***,011 DEV-AVG=009 NT SWF=00:000 XRAY-MAX= B2.8 @ 2353UT XRAY-MIN= A1.5 @ 2224UT XRAY-AVG= A3.2 NEUTN-MAX= +001% @ 0955UT NEUTN-MIN= -001% @ 1230UT NEUTN-AVG= -0.1% PCA-MAX= +0.0DB @ 1230UT PCA-MIN= -0.1DB @ 1005UT PCA-AVG= -0.0DB BOUTF-MAX=55221NT @ 1005UT BOUTF-MIN=55210NT @ 0029UT BOUTF-AVG=55216NT GOES7-MAX=P:+000NT@ 0000UT GOES7-MIN=N:+000NT@ 0000UT G7-AVG=+078,+000,+000 GOES6-MAX=P:+000NT@ 0000UT GOES6-MIN=N:+000NT@ 0000UT G6-AVG=+000,+000,+000 FLUXFCST=STD:075,075,075;SESC:N/A,N/A,N/A BAI/PAI-FCST=010,010,010/010,010,010 KFCST=**** **** **** **** 27DAY-AP=020,009 27DAY-KP=4445 2233 2332 2212 WARNINGS= ALERTS= !!END-DATA!! NOTE: The Effective Sunspot Number for 20 SEP 95 is not available. The Full Kp Indices for 20 SEP 95 are not available. The 3-Hr Ap Indices for 20 SEP 95 are not available. Greater than 2 MeV Electron Fluence value is not available. DRAO 10.7 cm Solar Radio Flux at 18Z, 20Z, 22Z: 73.7, 73.9, 74.3 sfu. SYNOPSIS OF ACTIVITY -------------------- Solar activity was very low. No significant activity was noted this period. New Region 7908 (N01E53) emerged this period as an HSX group and new Region 7909 N00E75) rotated onto the disk as AXX group. Solar activity forecast: solar activity is expected to be very low to low. C-class activity in Region 7907 is possible. The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled at most locations. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at GOES-8 was unavailable due to power/computer problems. Geophysical activity forecast: the geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled for the next three days. Event probabilities 22 sep-24 sep Class M 01/01/01 Class X 01/01/01 Proton 01/01/01 PCAF Green Geomagnetic activity probabilities 22 sep-24 sep A. Middle Latitudes Active 10/10/10 Minor Storm 05/05/05 Major-Severe Storm 01/01/01 B. High Latitudes Active 10/10/10 Minor Storm 05/05/05 Major-Severe Storm 01/01/01 HF propagation conditions have been normal over all regions. Normal conditions should continue over the next 72 hours, through 24 September inclusive. ENERGETIC ELECTRON FLUENCE 60-DAY HISTORY AT GREATER THAN 2 MEV ------!-+------------------------!-----+-------------------- 3.75E+09|...... ..........................+... ...... ... ......... |V. HIGH 2.16E+09|...... ................V.........+... ...... ..V ..V...... |V. HIGH 1.25E+09|...... ...............VV.........+... ...... ..V ..V...... |V. HIGH 7.18E+08|...... ...............VVH........+... ...... ..V .HV...... |High 4.14E+08|...... ...............VVH........+... ...... HHV HHV...... |Moderate 2.38E+08|...... .........M.MM..VVH........+... ...... HHV HHVM..... | 1.37E+08|...... .........MMMM..VVH........+... ...... HHV HHVM..MM. | 7.92E+07|...... .........MMMMMMVVH........+... ...... HHV HHVMM.MM. | 4.56E+07|...... .........MMMMMMVVH........+... ...... HHV HHVMMMMM. |Normal 2.63E+07|N..... .........MMMMMMVVH.N..N...nN.. ...... HHV HHVMMMMM. | 1.52E+07|N..... .........MMMMMMVVHNNNNN...nNN. ...... HHV HHVMMMMMN | 8.74E+06|N.NNN. .........MMMMMMVVHNNNNN...nNN. ...... HHV HHVMMMMMN | 5.04E+06|NNNNNN .........MMMMMMVVHNNNNN...nNNN NNN... HHV HHVMMMMMN | 2.91E+06|NNNNNN NNN......MMMMMMVVHNNNNNNNNnNNN NNN... HHV HHVMMMMMN | 1.68E+06|NNNNNN NNNNNNNNNMMMMMMVVHNNNNNNNNnNNN NNNNNN HHV HHVMMMMMN | 9.73E+05|NNNNNN NNNNNNNNNMMMMMMVVHNNNNNNNNnNNN NNNNNN HHV HHVMMMMMN | ------!-+------------------------!-----+-------------------- Aug Sep NOTES: "V" = Very High Fluence, "H" = High Fluence, etc, " " = No Data, "!" = Solar rotational boundary periods from current date. Electron fluence is flux integrated over time in units of cm^-2 day^-1 sr^-1 as measured by GOES-8. Fluence values that are moderate or higher have been correlated with satellite anomalies. Sustained high to very high fluence has been correlated with serious malfunctions. COPIES OF JOINT USAF/NOAA SESC SOLAR GEOPHYSICAL REPORTS ======================================================== REGIONS WITH SUNSPOTS. LOCATIONS VALID AT 21/2400Z SEPTEMBER ------------------------------------------------------------ NMBR LOCATION LO AREA Z LL NM MAG TYPE 7907 N07E39 055 0070 DSO 12 010 BETA 7908 N01E53 050 0020 HSX 02 001 ALPHA 7909 S07E66 045 0000 AXX 01 001 ALPHA REGIONS DUE TO RETURN 22 SEPTEMBER TO 24 SEPTEMBER NMBR LAT LO NONE LISTING OF SOLAR ENERGETIC EVENTS FOR 21 SEPTEMBER, 1995 -------------------------------------------------------- BEGIN MAX END RGN LOC XRAY OP 245MHZ 10CM SWEEP NONE POSSIBLE CORONAL MASS EJECTION EVENTS FOR 21 SEPTEMBER, 1995 ------------------------------------------------------------ BEGIN MAX END LOCATION TYPE SIZE DUR II IV NO DATA INFERRED CORONAL HOLES. LOCATIONS VALID AT 20/2400Z --------------------------------------------------- ISOLATED HOLES AND POLAR EXTENSIONS EAST SOUTH WEST NORTH CAR TYPE POL AREA OBSN NO DATA SUMMARY OF FLARE EVENTS FOR THE PREVIOUS UTC DAY ------------------------------------------------ Date Begin Max End Xray Op Region Locn 2695 MHz 8800 MHz 15.4 GHz ------ ---- ---- ---- ---- -- ------ ------ --------- --------- --------- 19 Sep: 1523 1523 1526 SF 7907 N08E80 2056 2101 2107 B1.3 2351 2355 0000 B1.9 REGION FLARE STATISTICS FOR THE PREVIOUS UTC DAY ------------------------------------------------ C M X S 1 2 3 4 Total (%) -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- --- ------ Region 7907: 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 001 (33.3) Uncorrellated: 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 002 (66.7) Total Events: 003 optical and x-ray. EVENTS WITH SWEEPS AND/OR OPTICAL PHENOMENA FOR THE LAST UTC DAY ---------------------------------------------------------------- Date Begin Max End Xray Op Region Locn Sweeps/Optical Observations ------ ---- ---- ---- ---- -- ------ ------ --------------------------- NO EVENTS OBSERVED. NOTES: All times are in Universal Time (UT). Characters preceding begin, max, and end times are defined as: B = Before, U = Uncertain, A = After. All times associated with x-ray flares (ex. flares which produce associated x-ray bursts) refer to the begin, max, and end times of the x-rays. Flares which are not associated with x-ray signatures use the optical observations to determine the begin, max, and end times. Acronyms used to identify sweeps and optical phenomena include: II = Type II Sweep Frequency Event III = Type III Sweep IV = Type IV Sweep V = Type V Sweep Continuum = Continuum Radio Event Loop = Loop Prominence System, Spray = Limb Spray, Surge = Bright Limb Surge, EPL = Eruptive Prominence on the Limb. ** End of Daily Report ** /\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\ DAILY SUMMARY OF SOLAR GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY 22 SEPTEMBER, 1995 /\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\ (Based In-Part On SESC Observational Data) SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY INDICES FOR 22 SEPTEMBER, 1995 ------------------------------------------------------------- !!BEGIN!! (1.0) S.T.D. Solar Geophysical Data Broadcast for DAY 265, 09/22/95 10.7 FLUX=074.5 90-AVG=073 SSN=042 BKI=1000 1111 BAI=005 BGND-XRAY=A2.0 FLU1=*.*E+** FLU10=*.*E+** PKI=1001 2222 PAI=004 BOU-DEV=006,002,002,002,006,007,007,006 DEV-AVG=004 NT SWF=00:000 XRAY-MAX= B4.3 @ 0220UT XRAY-MIN= A1.3 @ 1209UT XRAY-AVG= A3.6 NEUTN-MAX= +000% @ 0000UT NEUTN-MIN= +000% @ 0000UT NEUTN-AVG= +0.0% PCA-MAX= +0.0DB @ 0000UT PCA-MIN= +0.0DB @ 0000UT PCA-AVG= +0.0DB BOUTF-MAX=55195NT @ 2311UT BOUTF-MIN=55187NT @ 2359UT BOUTF-AVG=55190NT GOES7-MAX=P:+000NT@ 0000UT GOES7-MIN=N:+000NT@ 0000UT G7-AVG=+092,+000,+000 GOES6-MAX=P:+000NT@ 0000UT GOES6-MIN=N:+000NT@ 0000UT G6-AVG=+000,+000,+000 FLUXFCST=STD:075,075,075;SESC:N/A,N/A,N/A BAI/PAI-FCST=010,010,010/010,010,010 KFCST=**** **** **** **** 27DAY-AP=009,006 27DAY-KP=2332 2212 2212 1223 WARNINGS= ALERTS= !!END-DATA!! NOTE: The Effective Sunspot Number for 21 SEP 95 is not available. The Full Kp Indices for 21 SEP 95 are not available. The 3-Hr Ap Indices for 21 SEP 95 are not available. Greater than 2 MeV Electron Fluence value is not available. DRAO 10.7 cm Solar Radio Flux at 18Z, 20Z, 22Z: 74.0, 74.5, 75.3 sfu. SYNOPSIS OF ACTIVITY -------------------- Solar activity was very low. Five weak B-class x-ray events were observed this period with associated subfaint flare characteristics, all from Region 7907 (N10E31). Weak lower frequency (30-410 MHz) radio emission was also observed during this period. Solar activity forecast: solar activity is expected to be very low to low. C-class activity in Region 7907 is possible. The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at normal to moderate levels. Geophysical activity forecast: the geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled for the next three days. Event probabilities 23 sep-25 sep Class M 01/01/01 Class X 01/01/01 Proton 01/01/01 PCAF Green Geomagnetic activity probabilities 22 sep-25 sep A. Middle Latitudes Active 10/10/10 Minor Storm 05/05/05 Major-Severe Storm 01/01/01 B. High Latitudes Active 10/10/10 Minor Storm 05/05/05 Major-Severe Storm 01/01/01 HF propagation conditions remained normal over all regions. Normal propagation will continue over the next 72 hours through 25 September inclusive. ENERGETIC ELECTRON FLUENCE 60-DAY HISTORY AT GREATER THAN 2 MEV ------!+-------------------------!----+--------------------- 3.75E+09|..... +..........................+.. ...... ... ......... |V. HIGH 2.16E+09|..... +...............V..........+.. ...... ..V ..V...... |V. HIGH 1.25E+09|..... +..............VV..........+.. ...... ..V ..V...... |V. HIGH 7.18E+08|..... +..............VVH.........+.. ...... ..V .HV...... |High 4.14E+08|..... +..............VVH.........+.. ...... HHV HHV...... |Moderate 2.38E+08|..... +........M.MM..VVH.........+.. ...... HHV HHVM..... | 1.37E+08|..... +........MMMM..VVH.........+.. ...... HHV HHVM..MM. | 7.92E+07|..... +........MMMMMMVVH.........+.. ...... HHV HHVMM.MM. | 4.56E+07|..... +........MMMMMMVVH.........+.. ...... HHV HHVMMMMM. |Normal 2.63E+07|..... +........MMMMMMVVH.N..N...Nn.. ...... HHV HHVMMMMM. | 1.52E+07|..... +........MMMMMMVVHNNNNN...NnN. ...... HHV HHVMMMMMN | 8.74E+06|.NNN. +........MMMMMMVVHNNNNN...NnN. ...... HHV HHVMMMMMN | 5.04E+06|NNNNN +........MMMMMMVVHNNNNN...NnNN NNN... HHV HHVMMMMMN | 2.91E+06|NNNNN nNN......MMMMMMVVHNNNNNNNNNnNN NNN... HHV HHVMMMMMN | 1.68E+06|NNNNN nNNNNNNNNMMMMMMVVHNNNNNNNNNnNN NNNNNN HHV HHVMMMMMN | 9.73E+05|NNNNN nNNNNNNNNMMMMMMVVHNNNNNNNNNnNN NNNNNN HHV HHVMMMMMN | ------!+-------------------------!----+--------------------- Aug Sep NOTES: "V" = Very High Fluence, "H" = High Fluence, etc, " " = No Data, "!" = Solar rotational boundary periods from current date. Electron fluence is flux integrated over time in units of cm^-2 day^-1 sr^-1 as measured by GOES-8. Fluence values that are moderate or higher have been correlated with satellite anomalies. Sustained high to very high fluence has been correlated with serious malfunctions. COPIES OF JOINT USAF/NOAA SESC SOLAR GEOPHYSICAL REPORTS ======================================================== REGIONS WITH SUNSPOTS. LOCATIONS VALID AT 22/2400Z SEPTEMBER ------------------------------------------------------------ NMBR LOCATION LO AREA Z LL NM MAG TYPE 7907 N10E31 055 0080 DAO 07 010 BETA 7908 N06E41 050 0030 HSX 02 001 ALPHA 7909 S01E61 045 0000 AXX 01 001 ALPHA REGIONS DUE TO RETURN 23 SEPTEMBER TO 25 SEPTEMBER NMBR LAT LO NONE LISTING OF SOLAR ENERGETIC EVENTS FOR 22 SEPTEMBER, 1995 -------------------------------------------------------- BEGIN MAX END RGN LOC XRAY OP 245MHZ 10CM SWEEP NONE POSSIBLE CORONAL MASS EJECTION EVENTS FOR 22 SEPTEMBER, 1995 ------------------------------------------------------------ BEGIN MAX END LOCATION TYPE SIZE DUR II IV NO DATA INFERRED CORONAL HOLES. LOCATIONS VALID AT 22/2400Z --------------------------------------------------- ISOLATED HOLES AND POLAR EXTENSIONS EAST SOUTH WEST NORTH CAR TYPE POL AREA OBSN NO DATA SUMMARY OF FLARE EVENTS FOR THE PREVIOUS UTC DAY ------------------------------------------------ Date Begin Max End Xray Op Region Locn 2695 MHz 8800 MHz 15.4 GHz ------ ---- ---- ---- ---- -- ------ ------ --------- --------- --------- NO EVENTS OBSERVED. REGION FLARE STATISTICS FOR THE PREVIOUS UTC DAY ------------------------------------------------ C M X S 1 2 3 4 Total (%) -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- --- ------ Uncorrellated: 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 000 ( 0.0) Total Events: 000 optical and x-ray. EVENTS WITH SWEEPS AND/OR OPTICAL PHENOMENA FOR THE LAST UTC DAY ---------------------------------------------------------------- Date Begin Max End Xray Op Region Locn Sweeps/Optical Observations ------ ---- ---- ---- ---- -- ------ ------ --------------------------- NO EVENTS OBSERVED. NOTES: All times are in Universal Time (UT). Characters preceding begin, max, and end times are defined as: B = Before, U = Uncertain, A = After. All times associated with x-ray flares (ex. flares which produce associated x-ray bursts) refer to the begin, max, and end times of the x-rays. Flares which are not associated with x-ray signatures use the optical observations to determine the begin, max, and end times. Acronyms used to identify sweeps and optical phenomena include: II = Type II Sweep Frequency Event III = Type III Sweep IV = Type IV Sweep V = Type V Sweep Continuum = Continuum Radio Event Loop = Loop Prominence System, Spray = Limb Spray, Surge = Bright Limb Surge, EPL = Eruptive Prominence on the Limb. ** End of Daily Report ** /\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\ DAILY SUMMARY OF SOLAR GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY 23 SEPTEMBER, 1995 /\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\ (Based In-Part On SESC Observational Data) SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY INDICES FOR 23 SEPTEMBER, 1995 ------------------------------------------------------------- NOTE: Communication problems combined with a serious power outage in the area of Boulder continues to hamper the generation and dissemination of this material. We are working on the problem and apologize for the delays. The background x-ray flux is estimated. !!BEGIN!! (1.0) S.T.D. Solar Geophysical Data Broadcast for DAY 266, 09/23/95 10.7 FLUX=075.0 90-AVG=073 SSN=050 BKI=2113 4222 BAI=006 BGND-XRAY=A1.6 FLU1=*.*E+** FLU10=*.*E+** PKI=4202 4332 PAI=012 BOU-DEV=012,007,008,020,***,015,012,011 DEV-AVG=012 NT SWF=00:000 XRAY-MAX= B7.0 @ 1109UT XRAY-MIN= A1.5 @ 2144UT XRAY-AVG= A4.1 NEUTN-MAX= +002% @ 1355UT NEUTN-MIN= -003% @ 1740UT NEUTN-AVG= -0.3% PCA-MAX= +0.1DB @ 0815UT PCA-MIN= -0.4DB @ 0855UT PCA-AVG= -0.0DB BOUTF-MAX=55196NT @ 0010UT BOUTF-MIN=55168NT @ 1855UT BOUTF-AVG=55184NT GOES7-MAX=P:+000NT@ 0000UT GOES7-MIN=N:+000NT@ 0000UT G7-AVG=+062,+000,+000 GOES6-MAX=P:+000NT@ 0000UT GOES6-MIN=N:+000NT@ 0000UT G6-AVG=+000,+000,+000 FLUXFCST=STD:075,075,075;SESC:N/A,N/A,N/A BAI/PAI-FCST=010,010,010/010,010,010 KFCST=1122 2111 1122 2111 27DAY-AP=006,005 27DAY-KP=2212 1223 1112 2221 WARNINGS= ALERTS= !!END-DATA!! NOTE: The Effective Sunspot Number for 22 SEP 95 is not available. The Full Kp Indices for 22 SEP 95 are: 1- 0o 0+ 1+ 2- 2+ 2- 2+ The 3-Hr Ap Indices for 22 SEP 95 are: 3 1 2 5 7 9 7 9 Greater than 2 MeV Electron Fluence for 23 SEP is not available DRAO 10.7 cm Solar Radio Flux at 18Z, 20Z, 22Z: 75.0, 75.0, 75.3 sfu. SYNOPSIS OF ACTIVITY -------------------- Solar activity was very low. No significant activity or changes noted this period. Solar activity forecast: solar activity is expected to be very low to low. C-class activity in Region 7907 is possible. The geomagnetic field was quiet to active. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was normal. Geophysical activity forecast: the geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled for the next three days. Event probabilities 24 sep-26 sep Class M 01/01/01 Class X 01/01/01 Proton 01/01/01 PCAF Green Geomagnetic activity probabilities 23 sep-26 sep A. Middle Latitudes Active 10/10/10 Minor Storm 05/05/05 Major-Severe Storm 01/01/01 B. High Latitudes Active 10/10/10 Minor Storm 05/05/05 Major-Severe Storm 01/01/01 HF propagation conditions were normal over all regions. Normal propagation should continue over the next 72 hours, through 26 September inclusive. ENERGETIC ELECTRON FLUENCE 60-DAY HISTORY AT GREATER THAN 2 MEV ------!--------------------------!---+---------------------- 3.75E+09|.... .+..........................+. ...... ... ......... |V. HIGH 2.16E+09|.... .+..............V...........+. ...... ..V ..V...... |V. HIGH 1.25E+09|.... .+.............VV...........+. ...... ..V ..V...... |V. HIGH 7.18E+08|.... .+.............VVH..........+. ...... ..V .HV...... |High 4.14E+08|.... .+.............VVH..........+. ...... HHV HHV...... |Moderate 2.38E+08|.... .+.......M.MM..VVH..........+. ...... HHV HHVM..... | 1.37E+08|.... .+.......MMMM..VVH..........+. ...... HHV HHVM..MM. | 7.92E+07|.... .+.......MMMMMMVVH..........+. ...... HHV HHVMM.MM. | 4.56E+07|.... .+.......MMMMMMVVH..........+. ...... HHV HHVMMMMM. |Normal 2.63E+07|.... .+.......MMMMMMVVH.N..N...NN+. ...... HHV HHVMMMMM. | 1.52E+07|.... .+.......MMMMMMVVHNNNNN...NNn. ...... HHV HHVMMMMMN | 8.74E+06|NNN. .+.......MMMMMMVVHNNNNN...NNn. ...... HHV HHVMMMMMN | 5.04E+06|NNNN .+.......MMMMMMVVHNNNNN...NNnN NNN... HHV HHVMMMMMN | 2.91E+06|NNNN NnN......MMMMMMVVHNNNNNNNNNNnN NNN... HHV HHVMMMMMN | 1.68E+06|NNNN NnNNNNNNNMMMMMMVVHNNNNNNNNNNnN NNNNNN HHV HHVMMMMMN | 9.73E+05|NNNN NnNNNNNNNMMMMMMVVHNNNNNNNNNNnN NNNNNN HHV HHVMMMMMN | ------!--------------------------!---+---------------------- Aug Sep NOTES: "V" = Very High Fluence, "H" = High Fluence, etc, " " = No Data, "!" = Solar rotational boundary periods from current date. Electron fluence is flux integrated over time in units of cm^-2 day^-1 sr^-1 as measured by GOES-8. Fluence values that are moderate or higher have been correlated with satellite anomalies. Sustained high to very high fluence has been correlated with serious malfunctions. COPIES OF JOINT USAF/NOAA SESC SOLAR GEOPHYSICAL REPORTS ======================================================== SOLAR REGION LISTING IS NOT AVAILABLE LISTING OF SOLAR ENERGETIC EVENTS FOR 23 SEPTEMBER, 1995 -------------------------------------------------------- BEGIN MAX END RGN LOC XRAY OP 245MHZ 10CM SWEEP NONE POSSIBLE CORONAL MASS EJECTION EVENTS FOR 23 SEPTEMBER, 1995 ------------------------------------------------------------ BEGIN MAX END LOCATION TYPE SIZE DUR II IV NO DATA INFERRED CORONAL HOLES. LOCATIONS VALID AT 22/2400Z --------------------------------------------------- ISOLATED HOLES AND POLAR EXTENSIONS EAST SOUTH WEST NORTH CAR TYPE POL AREA OBSN NO DATA SUMMARY OF FLARE EVENTS FOR THE PREVIOUS UTC DAY ------------------------------------------------ Date Begin Max End Xray Op Region Locn 2695 MHz 8800 MHz 15.4 GHz ------ ---- ---- ---- ---- -- ------ ------ --------- --------- --------- NO EVENTS OBSERVED. REGION FLARE STATISTICS FOR THE PREVIOUS UTC DAY ------------------------------------------------ C M X S 1 2 3 4 Total (%) -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- --- ------ Uncorrellated: 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 000 ( 0.0) Total Events: 000 optical and x-ray. EVENTS WITH SWEEPS AND/OR OPTICAL PHENOMENA FOR THE LAST UTC DAY ---------------------------------------------------------------- Date Begin Max End Xray Op Region Locn Sweeps/Optical Observations ------ ---- ---- ---- ---- -- ------ ------ --------------------------- NO EVENTS OBSERVED. NOTES: All times are in Universal Time (UT). Characters preceding begin, max, and end times are defined as: B = Before, U = Uncertain, A = After. All times associated with x-ray flares (ex. flares which produce associated x-ray bursts) refer to the begin, max, and end times of the x-rays. Flares which are not associated with x-ray signatures use the optical observations to determine the begin, max, and end times. Acronyms used to identify sweeps and optical phenomena include: II = Type II Sweep Frequency Event III = Type III Sweep IV = Type IV Sweep V = Type V Sweep Continuum = Continuum Radio Event Loop = Loop Prominence System, Spray = Limb Spray, Surge = Bright Limb Surge, EPL = Eruptive Prominence on the Limb. ** End of Daily Report ** /\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\ DAILY SUMMARY OF SOLAR GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY 24 SEPTEMBER, 1995 /\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\ (Based In-Part On SESC Observational Data) SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY INDICES FOR 24 SEPTEMBER, 1995 ------------------------------------------------------------- NOTE: The background x-ray flux is estimated. We are currently experiencing a communications problem with our mail server that will not be repaired until at least the 18th or 19th. Again, we apologize for the delays. !!BEGIN!! (1.0) S.T.D. Solar Geophysical Data Broadcast for DAY 267, 09/24/95 10.7 FLUX=073.7 90-AVG=073 SSN=000 BKI=1433 1001 BAI=008 BGND-XRAY=A1.5 FLU1=2.0E+05 FLU10=1.8E+04 PKI=2333 1221 PAI=009 BOU-DEV=007,***,***,***,***,***,002,005 DEV-AVG=005 NT SWF=00:000 XRAY-MAX= A1.8 @ 0001UT XRAY-MIN= A1.3 @ 0355UT XRAY-AVG= A1.5 NEUTN-MAX= +001% @ 2340UT NEUTN-MIN= -001% @ 0450UT NEUTN-AVG= -0.2% PCA-MAX= +0.1DB @ 0335UT PCA-MIN= -0.3DB @ 0345UT PCA-AVG= -0.0DB BOUTF-MAX=55192NT @ 0432UT BOUTF-MIN=55184NT @ 0014UT BOUTF-AVG=55188NT GOES7-MAX=P:+000NT@ 0000UT GOES7-MIN=N:+000NT@ 0000UT G7-AVG=+084,+000,+000 GOES6-MAX=P:+000NT@ 0000UT GOES6-MIN=N:+000NT@ 0000UT G6-AVG=+000,+000,+000 FLUXFCST=STD:075,075,070;SESC:075,075,070 BAI/PAI-FCST=005,005,005/008,008,008 KFCST=1122 2111 1122 2111 27DAY-AP=005,014 27DAY-KP=1112 2221 3344 2232 WARNINGS= ALERTS= !!END-DATA!! NOTE: The Effective Sunspot Number for 23 SEP 95 is not available. The Full Kp Indices for 23 SEP 95 are: 4- 3- 0+ 2+ 4- 3- 3o 2+ The 3-Hr Ap Indices for 23 SEP 95 are: 22 11 2 10 23 13 15 10 Greater than 2 MeV Electron Fluence for 24 SEP is not available DRAO 10.7 cm Solar Radio Flux at 18Z, 20Z, 22Z: 73.9, 73.7, 74.1 sfu. SYNOPSIS OF ACTIVITY -------------------- Solar activity was very low. No significant activity or changes noted this period. Solar activity forecast: solar activity is expected to be very low. STD: Solar WIND data from 15:00 to 17:45 UTC indicated a decreasing solar wind velocity from 390 to 360 km/sec. Density was steady at 6 p/cm^3 and the Bz IMF component was steady at zero nT. The geomagnetic field has been at mostly quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at normal to moderate levels. Geophysical activity forecast: the geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled for the next three days. Event probabilities 25 sep-27 sep Class M 01/01/01 Class X 01/01/01 Proton 01/01/01 PCAF Green Geomagnetic activity probabilities 25 sep-27 sep A. Middle Latitudes Active 10/10/10 Minor Storm 05/05/05 Major-Severe Storm 01/01/01 B. High Latitudes Active 10/10/10 Minor Storm 05/05/05 Major-Severe Storm 01/01/01 HF propagation conditions were normal over all regions. Normal propagation will continue through 27 September inclusive. ENERGETIC ELECTRON FLUENCE 60-DAY HISTORY AT GREATER THAN 2 MEV -----+!--------------------------!--+----------------------- 3.75E+09|... ..+..........................+ ...... ... ......... |V. HIGH 2.16E+09|... ..+.............V............+ ...... ..V ..V...... |V. HIGH 1.25E+09|... ..+............VV............+ ...... ..V ..V...... |V. HIGH 7.18E+08|... ..+............VVH...........+ ...... ..V .HV...... |High 4.14E+08|... ..+............VVH...........+ ...... HHV HHV...... |Moderate 2.38E+08|... ..+......M.MM..VVH...........+ ...... HHV HHVM..... | 1.37E+08|... ..+......MMMM..VVH...........+ ...... HHV HHVM..MM. | 7.92E+07|... ..+......MMMMMMVVH...........+ ...... HHV HHVMM.MM. | 4.56E+07|... ..+......MMMMMMVVH...........+ ...... HHV HHVMMMMM. |Normal 2.63E+07|... ..+......MMMMMMVVH.N..N...NN.+ ...... HHV HHVMMMMM. | 1.52E+07|... ..+......MMMMMMVVHNNNNN...NNN+ ...... HHV HHVMMMMMN | 8.73E+06|NN. ..+......MMMMMMVVHNNNNN...NNN+ ...... HHV HHVMMMMMN | 5.03E+06|NNN ..+......MMMMMMVVHNNNNN...NNNn NNN... HHV HHVMMMMMN | 2.90E+06|NNN NNn......MMMMMMVVHNNNNNNNNNNNn NNN... HHV HHVMMMMMN | 1.67E+06|NNN NNnNNNNNNMMMMMMVVHNNNNNNNNNNNn NNNNNN HHV HHVMMMMMN | 9.63E+05|NNN NNnNNNNNNMMMMMMVVHNNNNNNNNNNNn NNNNNN HHV HHVMMMMMN | -----+!--------------------------!--+----------------------- Aug Sep NOTES: "V" = Very High Fluence, "H" = High Fluence, etc, " " = No Data, "!" = Solar rotational boundary periods from current date. Electron fluence is flux integrated over time in units of cm^-2 day^-1 sr^-1 as measured by GOES-8. Fluence values that are moderate or higher have been correlated with satellite anomalies. Sustained high to very high fluence has been correlated with serious malfunctions. COPIES OF JOINT USAF/NOAA SESC SOLAR GEOPHYSICAL REPORTS ======================================================== SOLAR REGION LISTING IS NOT AVAILABLE LISTING OF SOLAR ENERGETIC EVENTS FOR 24 SEPTEMBER, 1995 -------------------------------------------------------- BEGIN MAX END RGN LOC XRAY OP 245MHZ 10CM SWEEP NONE POSSIBLE CORONAL MASS EJECTION EVENTS FOR 24 SEPTEMBER, 1995 ------------------------------------------------------------ BEGIN MAX END LOCATION TYPE SIZE DUR II IV NO DATA INFERRED CORONAL HOLES. LOCATIONS VALID AT 24/2400Z --------------------------------------------------- ISOLATED HOLES AND POLAR EXTENSIONS EAST SOUTH WEST NORTH CAR TYPE POL AREA OBSN NO DATA SUMMARY OF FLARE EVENTS FOR THE PREVIOUS UTC DAY ------------------------------------------------ Date Begin Max End Xray Op Region Locn 2695 MHz 8800 MHz 15.4 GHz ------ ---- ---- ---- ---- -- ------ ------ --------- --------- --------- NO EVENTS OBSERVED. REGION FLARE STATISTICS FOR THE PREVIOUS UTC DAY ------------------------------------------------ C M X S 1 2 3 4 Total (%) -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- --- ------ Uncorrellated: 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 000 ( 0.0) Total Events: 000 optical and x-ray. EVENTS WITH SWEEPS AND/OR OPTICAL PHENOMENA FOR THE LAST UTC DAY ---------------------------------------------------------------- Date Begin Max End Xray Op Region Locn Sweeps/Optical Observations ------ ---- ---- ---- ---- -- ------ ------ --------------------------- NO EVENTS OBSERVED. NOTES: All times are in Universal Time (UT). Characters preceding begin, max, and end times are defined as: B = Before, U = Uncertain, A = After. All times associated with x-ray flares (ex. flares which produce associated x-ray bursts) refer to the begin, max, and end times of the x-rays. Flares which are not associated with x-ray signatures use the optical observations to determine the begin, max, and end times. Acronyms used to identify sweeps and optical phenomena include: II = Type II Sweep Frequency Event III = Type III Sweep IV = Type IV Sweep V = Type V Sweep Continuum = Continuum Radio Event Loop = Loop Prominence System, Spray = Limb Spray, Surge = Bright Limb Surge, EPL = Eruptive Prominence on the Limb. ** End of Daily Report ** /\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\ DAILY SUMMARY OF SOLAR GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY 25 SEPTEMBER, 1995 /\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\ (Based In-Part On SESC Observational Data) SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY INDICES FOR 25 SEPTEMBER, 1995 ------------------------------------------------------------- NOTE: The background x-ray flux is correct. !!BEGIN!! (1.0) S.T.D. Solar Geophysical Data Broadcast for DAY 268, 09/25/95 10.7 FLUX=074.0 90-AVG=073 SSN=038 BKI=2332 1101 BAI=006 BGND-XRAY=A1.6 FLU1=8.9E+04 FLU10=1.7E+04 PKI=2331 2211 PAI=007 BOU-DEV=013,026,028,013,008,006,004,008 DEV-AVG=013 NT SWF=00:000 XRAY-MAX= B9.3 @ 0359UT XRAY-MIN= A1.1 @ 2323UT XRAY-AVG= A2.9 NEUTN-MAX= +002% @ 1325UT NEUTN-MIN= -002% @ 2310UT NEUTN-AVG= +0.2% PCA-MAX= +0.1DB @ 1635UT PCA-MIN= -0.4DB @ 1715UT PCA-AVG= -0.0DB BOUTF-MAX=55194NT @ 1307UT BOUTF-MIN=55177NT @ 1746UT BOUTF-AVG=55187NT GOES7-MAX=P:+000NT@ 0000UT GOES7-MIN=N:+000NT@ 0000UT G7-AVG=+065,+000,+000 GOES6-MAX=P:+000NT@ 0000UT GOES6-MIN=N:+000NT@ 0000UT G6-AVG=+000,+000,+000 FLUXFCST=STD:075,072,072;SESC:075,072,072 BAI/PAI-FCST=005,005,005/008,008,005 KFCST=1122 2111 1122 2111 27DAY-AP=014,007 27DAY-KP=3344 2232 1331 2121 WARNINGS= ALERTS= !!END-DATA!! NOTE: The Effective Sunspot Number for 24 SEP 95 was 21.0. The Full Kp Indices for 25 SEP 95 are: 2- 3- 3- 1+ 2- 2- 1+ 1o The 3-Hr Ap Indices for 25 SEP 95 are: 6 13 11 5 6 6 5 4 Greater than 2 MeV Electron Fluence for 25 SEP is: 1.4E+07 DRAO 10.7 cm Solar Radio Flux at 18Z, 20Z, 22Z: 73.8, 74.0, 74.5 sfu. SYNOPSIS OF ACTIVITY -------------------- Solar activity was very low. A single uncorrelated B9 x-ray burst was detected at 25/0358Z. All regions currently on the visible disk remained relatively stable and quiet. Solar activity forecast: solar activity is expected to be very low. STD: Solar WIND data was received from 13:00 to 15:30 UTC and indicated a solar wind velocity of about 315 km/sec. Density was steady near 9.2 p/cm^3 and the Bz IMF component hovered near zero nT. At the end of the observing period, the Bz component was slightly northward at +0.3 nT. The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Geophysical activity forecast: the geomagnetic field is expected to be mostly quiet for the entire forecast period. Event probabilities 26 sep-28 sep Class M 01/01/01 Class X 01/01/01 Proton 01/01/01 PCAF Green Geomagnetic activity probabilities 26 sep-28 sep A. Middle Latitudes Active 05/05/05 Minor Storm 05/05/05 Major-Severe Storm 01/01/01 B. High Latitudes Active 10/10/10 Minor Storm 05/05/05 Major-Severe Storm 01/01/01 HF propagation conditions were normal over all regions. Normal conditions will persist through 28 September inclusive. ENERGETIC ELECTRON FLUENCE 60-DAY HISTORY AT GREATER THAN 2 MEV ----+-!--------------------------!-+------------------------ 3.75E+09|.. ...+.......................... ...... ... ......... .|V. HIGH 2.16E+09|.. ...+............V............. ...... ..V ..V...... .|V. HIGH 1.25E+09|.. ...+...........VV............. ...... ..V ..V...... .|V. HIGH 7.18E+08|.. ...+...........VVH............ ...... ..V .HV...... .|High 4.14E+08|.. ...+...........VVH............ ...... HHV HHV...... .|Moderate 2.38E+08|.. ...+.....M.MM..VVH............ ...... HHV HHVM..... .| 1.37E+08|.. ...+.....MMMM..VVH............ ...... HHV HHVM..MM. .| 7.92E+07|.. ...+.....MMMMMMVVH............ ...... HHV HHVMM.MM. .| 4.56E+07|.. ...+.....MMMMMMVVH............ ...... HHV HHVMMMMM. .|Normal 2.63E+07|.. ...+.....MMMMMMVVH.N..N...NN.. ...... HHV HHVMMMMM. .| 1.52E+07|.. ...+.....MMMMMMVVHNNNNN...NNN. ...... HHV HHVMMMMMN .| 8.74E+06|N. ...+.....MMMMMMVVHNNNNN...NNN. ...... HHV HHVMMMMMN N| 5.04E+06|NN ...+.....MMMMMMVVHNNNNN...NNNN NNN... HHV HHVMMMMMN N| 2.91E+06|NN NNN+.....MMMMMMVVHNNNNNNNNNNNN NNN... HHV HHVMMMMMN N| 1.68E+06|NN NNNnNNNNNMMMMMMVVHNNNNNNNNNNNN NNNNNN HHV HHVMMMMMN N| 9.73E+05|NN NNNnNNNNNMMMMMMVVHNNNNNNNNNNNN NNNNNN HHV HHVMMMMMN N| ----+-!--------------------------!-+------------------------ Aug Sep NOTES: "V" = Very High Fluence, "H" = High Fluence, etc, " " = No Data, "!" = Solar rotational boundary periods from current date. Electron fluence is flux integrated over time in units of cm^-2 day^-1 sr^-1 as measured by GOES-8. Fluence values that are moderate or higher have been correlated with satellite anomalies. Sustained high to very high fluence has been correlated with serious malfunctions. COPIES OF JOINT USAF/NOAA SESC SOLAR GEOPHYSICAL REPORTS ======================================================== REGIONS WITH SUNSPOTS. LOCATIONS VALID AT 25/2400Z SEPTEMBER ------------------------------------------------------------ NMBR LOCATION LO AREA Z LL NN MAG TYPE 7907 N08W13 063 0020 CSO 07 004 BETA 7908 N05E01 049 0010 BXO 04 003 BETA 7909 S04E20 030 0000 AXX 00 001 ALPHA REGIONS DUE TO RETURN 26 SEPTEMBER TO 28 SEPTEMBER NMBR LAT LO 7905 N11 289 LISTING OF SOLAR ENERGETIC EVENTS FOR 25 SEPTEMBER, 1995 -------------------------------------------------------- BEGIN MAX END RGN LOC XRAY OP 245MHZ 10CM SWEEP NONE POSSIBLE CORONAL MASS EJECTION EVENTS FOR 25 SEPTEMBER, 1995 ------------------------------------------------------------ BEGIN MAX END LOCATION TYPE SIZE DUR II IV NO EVENTS OBSERVED INFERRED CORONAL HOLES. LOCATIONS VALID AT 25/2400Z --------------------------------------------------- ISOLATED HOLES AND POLAR EXTENSIONS EAST SOUTH WEST NORTH CAR TYPE POL AREA OBSN NONE VISIBLE SUMMARY OF FLARE EVENTS FOR THE PREVIOUS UTC DAY ------------------------------------------------ Date Begin Max End Xray Op Region Locn 2695 MHz 8800 MHz 15.4 GHz ------ ---- ---- ---- ---- -- ------ ------ --------- --------- --------- 23 Sep: 1045 1108 1127 B7.0 REGION FLARE STATISTICS FOR THE PREVIOUS UTC DAY ------------------------------------------------ C M X S 1 2 3 4 Total (%) -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- --- ------ Uncorrellated: 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 001 (100.0) Total Events: 001 optical and x-ray. EVENTS WITH SWEEPS AND/OR OPTICAL PHENOMENA FOR THE LAST UTC DAY ---------------------------------------------------------------- Date Begin Max End Xray Op Region Locn Sweeps/Optical Observations ------ ---- ---- ---- ---- -- ------ ------ --------------------------- 23 Sep: 1045 1108 1127 B7.0 III NOTES: All times are in Universal Time (UT). Characters preceding begin, max, and end times are defined as: B = Before, U = Uncertain, A = After. All times associated with x-ray flares (ex. flares which produce associated x-ray bursts) refer to the begin, max, and end times of the x-rays. Flares which are not associated with x-ray signatures use the optical observations to determine the begin, max, and end times. Acronyms used to identify sweeps and optical phenomena include: II = Type II Sweep Frequency Event III = Type III Sweep IV = Type IV Sweep V = Type V Sweep Continuum = Continuum Radio Event Loop = Loop Prominence System, Spray = Limb Spray, Surge = Bright Limb Surge, EPL = Eruptive Prominence on the Limb. ** End of Daily Report ** /\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\ DAILY SUMMARY OF SOLAR GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY 26 SEPTEMBER, 1995 /\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\ (Based In-Part On SESC Observational Data) SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY INDICES FOR 26 SEPTEMBER, 1995 ------------------------------------------------------------- !!BEGIN!! (1.0) S.T.D. Solar Geophysical Data Broadcast for DAY 269, 09/26/95 10.7 FLUX=073.5 90-AVG=073 SSN=040 BKI=1223 1101 BAI=005 BGND-XRAY=A1.1 FLU1=1.2E+05 FLU10=1.8E+04 PKI=1223 1121 PAI=005 BOU-DEV=005,015,018,032,006,008,003,005 DEV-AVG=011 NT SWF=00:000 XRAY-MAX= A9.7 @ 0925UT XRAY-MIN= A1.0 @ 2357UT XRAY-AVG= A1.4 NEUTN-MAX= +002% @ 2345UT NEUTN-MIN= -001% @ 2025UT NEUTN-AVG= +0.3% PCA-MAX= +0.2DB @ 1530UT PCA-MIN= -0.3DB @ 1600UT PCA-AVG= +0.0DB BOUTF-MAX=55192NT @ 1335UT BOUTF-MIN=55175NT @ 1627UT BOUTF-AVG=55187NT GOES7-MAX=P:+000NT@ 0000UT GOES7-MIN=N:+000NT@ 0000UT G7-AVG=+070,+000,+000 GOES6-MAX=P:+000NT@ 0000UT GOES6-MIN=N:+000NT@ 0000UT G6-AVG=+000,+000,+000 FLUXFCST=STD:072,072,072;SESC:072,072,072 BAI/PAI-FCST=005,005,005/005,005,005 KFCST=1122 2111 1112 3222 27DAY-AP=007,005 27DAY-KP=1331 2121 1011 2232 WARNINGS= ALERTS= !!END-DATA!! NOTE: The Effective Sunspot Number for 25 SEP 95 is not available. The Full Kp Indices for 26 SEP 95 are: 1+ 2- 2- 3- 1+ 1- 2- 1o The 3-Hr Ap Indices for 26 SEP 95 are: 5 7 7 12 5 3 7 4 Greater than 2 MeV Electron Fluence for 26 SEP is: 1.0E+07 DRAO 10.7 cm Solar Radio Flux at 18Z, 20Z, 22Z: 71.9, 73.5, 73.5 sfu. SYNOPSIS OF ACTIVITY -------------------- Solar activity was very low. There was no activity of note. The three spotted regions on the visible disk remained stable and quiet. All three showed slight decay. Solar activity forecast: solar activity is expected to be very low. STD: Solar WIND data from 12:30 to 15:00 UTC indicated a solar wind velocity of about 330 km/sec. Density was about 11 p/cm^3 and the Bz IMF component was mainly northward from +1 to +6 nT. Some southward excursions were noted at the beginning of the period. The geomagnetic field has been at mostly quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Geophysical activity forecast: the geomagnetic field is expected to be mostly quiet for the entire forecast period. Event probabilities 27 sep-29 sep Class M 01/01/01 Class X 01/01/01 Proton 01/01/01 PCAF Green Geomagnetic activity probabilities 27 sep-29 sep A. Middle Latitudes Active 05/05/05 Minor Storm 05/05/05 Major-Severe Storm 01/01/01 B. High Latitudes Active 10/05/05 Minor Storm 05/05/05 Major-Severe Storm 01/01/01 HF propagation conditions were normal over all regions. Normal propagation should continue through 29 September inclusive. Observations just prior to the issue of this report indicated some elevated levels of high-latitude geomagnetic activity that might cause some minor signal degradation on high latitude circuits that transit the auroral zones. ENERGETIC ELECTRON FLUENCE 60-DAY HISTORY AT GREATER THAN 2 MEV ---+--!--------------------------!+------------------------- 3.75E+09|. ....+......................... +..... ... ......... ..|V. HIGH 2.16E+09|. ....+...........V............. +..... ..V ..V...... ..|V. HIGH 1.25E+09|. ....+..........VV............. +..... ..V ..V...... ..|V. HIGH 7.18E+08|. ....+..........VVH............ +..... ..V .HV...... ..|High 4.14E+08|. ....+..........VVH............ +..... HHV HHV...... ..|Moderate 2.38E+08|. ....+....M.MM..VVH............ +..... HHV HHVM..... ..| 1.37E+08|. ....+....MMMM..VVH............ +..... HHV HHVM..MM. ..| 7.92E+07|. ....+....MMMMMMVVH............ +..... HHV HHVMM.MM. ..| 4.56E+07|. ....+....MMMMMMVVH............ +..... HHV HHVMMMMM. ..|Normal 2.63E+07|. ....+....MMMMMMVVH.N..N...NN.. +..... HHV HHVMMMMM. ..| 1.52E+07|. ....+....MMMMMMVVHNNNNN...NNN. +..... HHV HHVMMMMMN ..| 8.74E+06|. ....+....MMMMMMVVHNNNNN...NNN. +..... HHV HHVMMMMMN NN| 5.04E+06|N ....+....MMMMMMVVHNNNNN...NNNN nNN... HHV HHVMMMMMN NN| 2.91E+06|N NNN.+....MMMMMMVVHNNNNNNNNNNNN nNN... HHV HHVMMMMMN NN| 1.68E+06|N NNNNnNNNNMMMMMMVVHNNNNNNNNNNNN nNNNNN HHV HHVMMMMMN NN| 9.73E+05|N NNNNnNNNNMMMMMMVVHNNNNNNNNNNNN nNNNNN HHV HHVMMMMMN NN| ---+--!--------------------------!+------------------------- Aug Sep NOTES: "V" = Very High Fluence, "H" = High Fluence, etc, " " = No Data, "!" = Solar rotational boundary periods from current date. Electron fluence is flux integrated over time in units of cm^-2 day^-1 sr^-1 as measured by GOES-8. Fluence values that are moderate or higher have been correlated with satellite anomalies. Sustained high to very high fluence has been correlated with serious malfunctions. COPIES OF JOINT USAF/NOAA SESC SOLAR GEOPHYSICAL REPORTS ======================================================== REGIONS WITH SUNSPOTS. LOCATIONS VALID AT 26/2400Z SEPTEMBER ------------------------------------------------------------ NMBR LOCATION LO AREA Z LL NN MAG TYPE 7907 N08W28 065 0020 CRO 06 004 BETA 7908 N06W13 050 0010 BXO 04 004 BETA 7909 S03E07 030 0000 AXX 01 002 ALPHA REGIONS DUE TO RETURN 27 SEPTEMBER TO 29 SEPTEMBER NMBR LAT LO 7905 N11 289 LISTING OF SOLAR ENERGETIC EVENTS FOR 26 SEPTEMBER, 1995 -------------------------------------------------------- BEGIN MAX END RGN LOC XRAY OP 245MHZ 10CM SWEEP NONE POSSIBLE CORONAL MASS EJECTION EVENTS FOR 26 SEPTEMBER, 1995 ------------------------------------------------------------ BEGIN MAX END LOCATION TYPE SIZE DUR II IV NO EVENTS OBSERVED INFERRED CORONAL HOLES. LOCATIONS VALID AT 26/2400Z --------------------------------------------------- ISOLATED HOLES AND POLAR EXTENSIONS EAST SOUTH WEST NORTH CAR TYPE POL AREA OBSN 77 N30E66 N20E56 N35E45 N42E55 343 ISO POS 007 10830A SUMMARY OF FLARE EVENTS FOR THE PREVIOUS UTC DAY ------------------------------------------------ Date Begin Max End Xray Op Region Locn 2695 MHz 8800 MHz 15.4 GHz ------ ---- ---- ---- ---- -- ------ ------ --------- --------- --------- 25 Sep: 0351 0358 0406 B9.3 REGION FLARE STATISTICS FOR THE PREVIOUS UTC DAY ------------------------------------------------ C M X S 1 2 3 4 Total (%) -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- --- ------ Uncorrellated: 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 001 (100.0) Total Events: 001 optical and x-ray. EVENTS WITH SWEEPS AND/OR OPTICAL PHENOMENA FOR THE LAST UTC DAY ---------------------------------------------------------------- Date Begin Max End Xray Op Region Locn Sweeps/Optical Observations ------ ---- ---- ---- ---- -- ------ ------ --------------------------- 25 Sep: 0351 0358 0406 B9.3 III NOTES: All times are in Universal Time (UT). Characters preceding begin, max, and end times are defined as: B = Before, U = Uncertain, A = After. All times associated with x-ray flares (ex. flares which produce associated x-ray bursts) refer to the begin, max, and end times of the x-rays. Flares which are not associated with x-ray signatures use the optical observations to determine the begin, max, and end times. Acronyms used to identify sweeps and optical phenomena include: II = Type II Sweep Frequency Event III = Type III Sweep IV = Type IV Sweep V = Type V Sweep Continuum = Continuum Radio Event Loop = Loop Prominence System, Spray = Limb Spray, Surge = Bright Limb Surge, EPL = Eruptive Prominence on the Limb. ** End of Daily Report ** /\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\ DAILY SUMMARY OF SOLAR GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY 27 SEPTEMBER, 1995 /\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\ (Based In-Part On SESC Observational Data) SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY INDICES FOR 27 SEPTEMBER, 1995 ------------------------------------------------------------- !!BEGIN!! (1.0) S.T.D. Solar Geophysical Data Broadcast for DAY 270, 09/27/95 10.7 FLUX=072.3 90-AVG=073 SSN=041 BKI=1335 4545 BAI=028 BGND-XRAY=A1.1 FLU1=1.0E+06 FLU10=1.8E+04 PKI=2334 4555 PAI=027 BOU-DEV=008,020,025,072,054,071,033,084 DEV-AVG=045 NT SWF=00:000 XRAY-MAX= A4.9 @ 1201UT XRAY-MIN= A1.0 @ 2358UT XRAY-AVG= A1.5 NEUTN-MAX= +003% @ 0630UT NEUTN-MIN= -001% @ 2325UT NEUTN-AVG= +0.5% PCA-MAX= +0.2DB @ 1550UT PCA-MIN= -0.3DB @ 1440UT PCA-AVG= +0.0DB BOUTF-MAX=55190NT @ 2248UT BOUTF-MIN=55130NT @ 1915UT BOUTF-AVG=55171NT GOES7-MAX=P:+000NT@ 0000UT GOES7-MIN=N:+000NT@ 0000UT G7-AVG=+057,+000,+000 GOES6-MAX=P:+000NT@ 0000UT GOES6-MIN=N:+000NT@ 0000UT G6-AVG=+000,+000,+000 FLUXFCST=STD:072,072,070;SESC:072,072,070 BAI/PAI-FCST=005,005,005/013,005,005 KFCST=1122 2111 1112 2222 27DAY-AP=005,005 27DAY-KP=1011 2232 2011 1131 WARNINGS= ALERTS= !!END-DATA!! NOTE: The Effective Sunspot Number for 26 SEP 95 was 25.5. The Full Kp Indices for 27 SEP 95 are: 2- 3- 3o 4+ 4+ 5- 5o 5- The 3-Hr Ap Indices for 27 SEP 95 are: 7 13 15 34 31 38 48 36 Greater than 2 MeV Electron Fluence for 27 SEP is: 6.2E+06 DRAO 10.7 cm Solar Radio Flux at 18Z, 20Z, 22Z: 72.9, 72.3, 73.2 sfu. SYNOPSIS OF ACTIVITY -------------------- Solar activity was very low. There was no activity of note. Solar activity forecast: solar activity is expected to be very low. STD: Solar WIND data from 12:15 to 15:45 UTC showed an increasing solar wind velocity from 350 to 430 km/sec. Density was steady with fluctuations from 10 to 20 p/cm^3. The Bz IMF component began the period at a southward -5 nT and intensified to -13 nT by the end of the period. All regions were stable or in slow decline. The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to minor storm levels for the past 24 hours. High latitude stations saw periods of major storming. Activity began shortly before 27/1200Z and is most likely the result of a previously undetected transient shock. Geophysical activity forecast: the geomagnetic field is expected to be mostly quiet for the next three days. Event probabilities 28 sep-30 sep Class M 01/01/01 Class X 01/01/01 Proton 01/01/01 PCAF Green Geomagnetic activity probabilities 28 sep-30 sep A. Middle Latitudes Active 05/05/05 Minor Storm 05/05/05 Major-Severe Storm 01/01/01 B. High Latitudes Active 10/05/05 Minor Storm 05/05/05 Major-Severe Storm 01/01/01 HF propagation conditions were near-normal over all but the high latitude regions today. High latitude paths (particularly transauroral circuits) experienced below-normal propagation on night-sector paths due to the increase in geomagnetic and auroral activity. Conditions remained below-normal on these paths through most of the day but were beginning to improve slightly by the end of the UTC day. Between 00:00 and 06:00 UTC, transauroral daytime paths reported MUF enhancements of about 20 percent above normal. After 15:00 UTC, the MUFs dropped to depressions of about 20 percent below normal. Propagation is expected to improve over the next 6 to 12 hours and should be near-normal over all regions by the mid to late part of 28 September. ENERGETIC ELECTRON FLUENCE 60-DAY HISTORY AT GREATER THAN 2 MEV --+---!--------------------------!-------------------------- 3.75E+09| .....+........................ .+.... ... ......... ...|V. HIGH 2.16E+09| .....+..........V............. .+.... ..V ..V...... ...|V. HIGH 1.25E+09| .....+.........VV............. .+.... ..V ..V...... ...|V. HIGH 7.18E+08| .....+.........VVH............ .+.... ..V .HV...... ...|High 4.14E+08| .....+.........VVH............ .+.... HHV HHV...... ...|Moderate 2.38E+08| .....+...M.MM..VVH............ .+.... HHV HHVM..... ...| 1.37E+08| .....+...MMMM..VVH............ .+.... HHV HHVM..MM. ...| 7.92E+07| .....+...MMMMMMVVH............ .+.... HHV HHVMM.MM. ...| 4.56E+07| .....+...MMMMMMVVH............ .+.... HHV HHVMMMMM. ...|Normal 2.63E+07| .....+...MMMMMMVVH.N..N...NN.. .+.... HHV HHVMMMMM. ...| 1.52E+07| .....+...MMMMMMVVHNNNNN...NNN. .+.... HHV HHVMMMMMN ...| 8.74E+06| .....+...MMMMMMVVHNNNNN...NNN. .+.... HHV HHVMMMMMN NN.| 5.04E+06| .....+...MMMMMMVVHNNNNN...NNNN NnN... HHV HHVMMMMMN NNN| 2.91E+06| NNN..+...MMMMMMVVHNNNNNNNNNNNN NnN... HHV HHVMMMMMN NNN| 1.68E+06| NNNNNnNNNMMMMMMVVHNNNNNNNNNNNN NnNNNN HHV HHVMMMMMN NNN| 9.73E+05| NNNNNnNNNMMMMMMVVHNNNNNNNNNNNN NnNNNN HHV HHVMMMMMN NNN| --+---!--------------------------!-------------------------- Aug Sep NOTES: "V" = Very High Fluence, "H" = High Fluence, etc, " " = No Data, "!" = Solar rotational boundary periods from current date. Electron fluence is flux integrated over time in units of cm^-2 day^-1 sr^-1 as measured by GOES-8. Fluence values that are moderate or higher have been correlated with satellite anomalies. Sustained high to very high fluence has been correlated with serious malfunctions. COPIES OF JOINT USAF/NOAA SESC SOLAR GEOPHYSICAL REPORTS ======================================================== REGIONS WITH SUNSPOTS. LOCATIONS VALID AT 27/2400Z SEPTEMBER ------------------------------------------------------------ NMBR LOCATION LO AREA Z LL NN MAG TYPE 7907 N07W42 066 0010 BXO 06 003 BETA 7908 N06W25 049 0010 AXX 02 005 ALPHA 7909 S04W05 029 0010 BXO 05 003 BETA REGIONS DUE TO RETURN 28 SEPTEMBER TO 30 SEPTEMBER NMBR LAT LO 7905 N11 289 LISTING OF SOLAR ENERGETIC EVENTS FOR 27 SEPTEMBER, 1995 -------------------------------------------------------- BEGIN MAX END RGN LOC XRAY OP 245MHZ 10CM SWEEP NONE POSSIBLE CORONAL MASS EJECTION EVENTS FOR 27 SEPTEMBER, 1995 ------------------------------------------------------------ BEGIN MAX END LOCATION TYPE SIZE DUR II IV NO EVENTS OBSERVED INFERRED CORONAL HOLES. LOCATIONS VALID AT 27/2400Z --------------------------------------------------- ISOLATED HOLES AND POLAR EXTENSIONS EAST SOUTH WEST NORTH CAR TYPE POL AREA OBSN NONE VISIBLE SUMMARY OF FLARE EVENTS FOR THE PREVIOUS UTC DAY ------------------------------------------------ Date Begin Max End Xray Op Region Locn 2695 MHz 8800 MHz 15.4 GHz ------ ---- ---- ---- ---- -- ------ ------ --------- --------- --------- 25 Sep: 0351 0358 0406 B9.3 26 Sep: 0909 0924 0944 A9.7 REGION FLARE STATISTICS FOR THE PREVIOUS UTC DAY ------------------------------------------------ C M X S 1 2 3 4 Total (%) -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- --- ------ Uncorrellated: 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 002 (100.0) Total Events: 002 optical and x-ray. EVENTS WITH SWEEPS AND/OR OPTICAL PHENOMENA FOR THE LAST UTC DAY ---------------------------------------------------------------- Date Begin Max End Xray Op Region Locn Sweeps/Optical Observations ------ ---- ---- ---- ---- -- ------ ------ --------------------------- 25 Sep: 0351 0358 0406 B9.3 III NOTES: All times are in Universal Time (UT). Characters preceding begin, max, and end times are defined as: B = Before, U = Uncertain, A = After. All times associated with x-ray flares (ex. flares which produce associated x-ray bursts) refer to the begin, max, and end times of the x-rays. Flares which are not associated with x-ray signatures use the optical observations to determine the begin, max, and end times. Acronyms used to identify sweeps and optical phenomena include: II = Type II Sweep Frequency Event III = Type III Sweep IV = Type IV Sweep V = Type V Sweep Continuum = Continuum Radio Event Loop = Loop Prominence System, Spray = Limb Spray, Surge = Bright Limb Surge, EPL = Eruptive Prominence on the Limb. ** End of Daily Report ** /\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\ DAILY SUMMARY OF SOLAR GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY 28 SEPTEMBER, 1995 /\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\ (Based In-Part On SESC Observational Data) SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY INDICES FOR 28 SEPTEMBER, 1995 ------------------------------------------------------------- CORRECTION: The given sunspot numbers (SSN) listed in the reports for 21 and 24 September were incorrect. The correct values are: 42 and 43 respectively. Todays background x-ray flux is correct at A1.0. !!BEGIN!! (1.0) S.T.D. Solar Geophysical Data Broadcast for DAY 271, 09/28/95 10.7 FLUX=072.7 90-AVG=073 SSN=011 BKI=2255 3211 BAI=017 BGND-XRAY=A1.0 FLU1=9.1E+04 FLU10=1.8E+04 PKI=3356 3231 PAI=023 BOU-DEV=010,018,108,101,025,010,005,008 DEV-AVG=035 NT SWF=00:000 XRAY-MAX= A2.2 @ 0616UT XRAY-MIN= A1.0 @ 2358UT XRAY-AVG= A1.1 NEUTN-MAX= +002% @ 1430UT NEUTN-MIN= -002% @ 1155UT NEUTN-AVG= +0.0% PCA-MAX= +0.1DB @ 1440UT PCA-MIN= -0.3DB @ 1510UT PCA-AVG= -0.0DB BOUTF-MAX=55194NT @ 0609UT BOUTF-MIN=55152NT @ 0929UT BOUTF-AVG=55176NT GOES7-MAX=P:+000NT@ 0000UT GOES7-MIN=N:+000NT@ 0000UT G7-AVG=+054,+000,+000 GOES6-MAX=P:+000NT@ 0000UT GOES6-MIN=N:+000NT@ 0000UT G6-AVG=+000,+000,+000 FLUXFCST=STD:072,070,070;SESC:072,070,070 BAI/PAI-FCST=005,005,010/010,010,015 KFCST=1123 3111 1111 1111 27DAY-AP=005,005 27DAY-KP=2011 1131 1101 1231 WARNINGS= ALERTS= !!END-DATA!! NOTE: The Effective Sunspot Number for 27 SEP 95 was 19.7. The Full Kp Indices for 28 SEP 95 are: 3- 3o 5+ 6- 3o 2o 3- 1+ The 3-Hr Ap Indices for 28 SEP 95 are: 12 15 58 63 16 8 12 5 Greater than 2 MeV Electron Fluence for 28 SEP is: 3.9E+06 DRAO 10.7 cm Solar Radio Flux at 18Z, 20Z, 22Z: 72.4, 72.7, 73.5 sfu. SYNOPSIS OF ACTIVITY -------------------- Solar activity was very low. There was no activity of note. Solar activity forecast: solar activity is expected to be very low. STD: Solar WIND data was received from 15:45 to 18:15 UTC. The measured solar wind velocity was slowly decreasing from 400 to 350 km/sec. Density was steady at about 4 p/cm^3 and the Bz IMF component was also steady and northward at about 1.3 nT. A coronal hole exists in Yohkoh x-rays in the northeast quadrant and a weak patch of enhanced emission is visible beyond the northeast limb. No other activity of interest was reported. The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to minor storm levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind data yesterday showed a high density, low velocity stream with a strong southward Bz indicative of a transient shock most likely produced by an undetected coronal mass ejection. Today's data indicates the disturbance has ended. Geophysical activity forecast: the geomagnetic field is expected to become mostly quiet to unsettled until 01 October when a favorably positioned recurrent coronal hole is expected to begin affecting the field. Event probabilities 29 sep-01 oct Class M 01/01/01 Class X 01/01/01 Proton 01/01/01 PCAF Green Geomagnetic activity probabilities 29 sep-01 oct A. Middle Latitudes Active 05/05/20 Minor Storm 05/05/10 Major-Severe Storm 01/01/05 B. High Latitudes Active 10/05/20 Minor Storm 05/05/10 Major-Severe Storm 01/01/05 HF propagation conditions were below-normal on high latitude paths (poor to very poor), particularly on transauroral circuits where fading, absorption and multipathing plagued signals for most of the day. MUFs over these regions were depressed by about 25 to 30 percent. Conditions are expected to improve toward near-normal on 29 September prior to another period of minor signal degradation anticipated on 01 October - the result of a well placed recurrent coronal hole. ENERGETIC ELECTRON FLUENCE 60-DAY HISTORY AT GREATER THAN 2 MEV -+----!-------------------------+!-------------------------- 3.75E+09|......+....................... ..+... ... ......... ....|V. HIGH 2.16E+09|......+.........V............. ..+... ..V ..V...... ....|V. HIGH 1.25E+09|......+........VV............. ..+... ..V ..V...... ....|V. HIGH 7.18E+08|......+........VVH............ ..+... ..V .HV...... ....|High 4.14E+08|......+........VVH............ ..+... HHV HHV...... ....|Moderate 2.38E+08|......+..M.MM..VVH............ ..+... HHV HHVM..... ....| 1.37E+08|......+..MMMM..VVH............ ..+... HHV HHVM..MM. ....| 7.92E+07|......+..MMMMMMVVH............ ..+... HHV HHVMM.MM. ....| 4.56E+07|......+..MMMMMMVVH............ ..+... HHV HHVMMMMM. ....|Normal 2.63E+07|......+..MMMMMMVVH.N..N...NN.. ..+... HHV HHVMMMMM. ....| 1.52E+07|......+..MMMMMMVVHNNNNN...NNN. ..+... HHV HHVMMMMMN ....| 8.74E+06|......+..MMMMMMVVHNNNNN...NNN. ..+... HHV HHVMMMMMN NN..| 5.04E+06|......+..MMMMMMVVHNNNNN...NNNN NNn... HHV HHVMMMMMN NNN.| 2.91E+06|NNN...+..MMMMMMVVHNNNNNNNNNNNN NNn... HHV HHVMMMMMN NNNN| 1.68E+06|NNNNNNnNNMMMMMMVVHNNNNNNNNNNNN NNnNNN HHV HHVMMMMMN NNNN| 9.73E+05|NNNNNNnNNMMMMMMVVHNNNNNNNNNNNN NNnNNN HHV HHVMMMMMN NNNN| -+----!-------------------------+!-------------------------- Aug Sep NOTES: "V" = Very High Fluence, "H" = High Fluence, etc, " " = No Data, "!" = Solar rotational boundary periods from current date. Electron fluence is flux integrated over time in units of cm^-2 day^-1 sr^-1 as measured by GOES-8. Fluence values that are moderate or higher have been correlated with satellite anomalies. Sustained high to very high fluence has been correlated with serious malfunctions. COPIES OF JOINT USAF/NOAA SESC SOLAR GEOPHYSICAL REPORTS ======================================================== REGIONS WITH SUNSPOTS. LOCATIONS VALID AT 28/2400Z SEPTEMBER ------------------------------------------------------------ NMBR LOCATION LO AREA Z LL NN MAG TYPE 7907 N07W57 068 0000 AXX 01 001 ALPHA 7908 N07W34 045 PLAGE 7909 S04W20 031 PLAGE REGIONS DUE TO RETURN 29 SEPTEMBER TO 01 OCTOBER NMBR LAT LO 7906 S19 257 LISTING OF SOLAR ENERGETIC EVENTS FOR 28 SEPTEMBER, 1995 -------------------------------------------------------- BEGIN MAX END RGN LOC XRAY OP 245MHZ 10CM SWEEP NONE POSSIBLE CORONAL MASS EJECTION EVENTS FOR 28 SEPTEMBER, 1995 ------------------------------------------------------------ BEGIN MAX END LOCATION TYPE SIZE DUR II IV NO EVENTS OBSERVED INFERRED CORONAL HOLES. LOCATIONS VALID AT 28/2400Z --------------------------------------------------- ISOLATED HOLES AND POLAR EXTENSIONS EAST SOUTH WEST NORTH CAR TYPE POL AREA OBSN NONE VISIBLE SUMMARY OF FLARE EVENTS FOR THE PREVIOUS UTC DAY ------------------------------------------------ Date Begin Max End Xray Op Region Locn 2695 MHz 8800 MHz 15.4 GHz ------ ---- ---- ---- ---- -- ------ ------ --------- --------- --------- 25 Sep: 0351 0358 0406 B9.3 26 Sep: 0909 0924 0944 A9.7 27 Sep: 0758 0759 0804 A4.3 SF 7909 S03E05 REGION FLARE STATISTICS FOR THE PREVIOUS UTC DAY ------------------------------------------------ C M X S 1 2 3 4 Total (%) -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- --- ------ Region 7909: 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 001 (33.3) Uncorrellated: 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 002 (66.7) Total Events: 003 optical and x-ray. EVENTS WITH SWEEPS AND/OR OPTICAL PHENOMENA FOR THE LAST UTC DAY ---------------------------------------------------------------- Date Begin Max End Xray Op Region Locn Sweeps/Optical Observations ------ ---- ---- ---- ---- -- ------ ------ --------------------------- 25 Sep: 0351 0358 0406 B9.3 III NOTES: All times are in Universal Time (UT). Characters preceding begin, max, and end times are defined as: B = Before, U = Uncertain, A = After. All times associated with x-ray flares (ex. flares which produce associated x-ray bursts) refer to the begin, max, and end times of the x-rays. Flares which are not associated with x-ray signatures use the optical observations to determine the begin, max, and end times. Acronyms used to identify sweeps and optical phenomena include: II = Type II Sweep Frequency Event III = Type III Sweep IV = Type IV Sweep V = Type V Sweep Continuum = Continuum Radio Event Loop = Loop Prominence System, Spray = Limb Spray, Surge = Bright Limb Surge, EPL = Eruptive Prominence on the Limb. ** End of Daily Report ** /\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\ DAILY SUMMARY OF SOLAR GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY 29 SEPTEMBER, 1995 /\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\ (Based In-Part On SESC Observational Data) SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY INDICES FOR 29 SEPTEMBER, 1995 ------------------------------------------------------------- NOTE: The background x-ray flux is estimated. !!BEGIN!! (1.0) S.T.D. Solar Geophysical Data Broadcast for DAY 272, 09/29/95 10.7 FLUX=073.7 90-AVG=073 SSN=011 BKI=1112 1211 BAI=004 BGND-XRAY=A1.0 FLU1=*.*E+** FLU10=*.*E+** PKI=1122 2110 PAI=005 BOU-DEV=008,005,009,012,008,013,006,006 DEV-AVG=008 NT SWF=00:000 XRAY-MAX= A1.6 @ 0053UT XRAY-MIN= A1.0 @ 2359UT XRAY-AVG= A1.1 NEUTN-MAX= +002% @ 1300UT NEUTN-MIN= -002% @ 2325UT NEUTN-AVG= +0.0% PCA-MAX= +0.1DB @ 1655UT PCA-MIN= -0.1DB @ 2315UT PCA-AVG= +0.0DB BOUTF-MAX=55213NT @ 2114UT BOUTF-MIN=55159NT @ 1759UT BOUTF-AVG=55182NT GOES7-MAX=P:+000NT@ 0000UT GOES7-MIN=N:+000NT@ 0000UT G7-AVG=+078,+000,+000 GOES6-MAX=P:+000NT@ 0000UT GOES6-MIN=N:+000NT@ 0000UT G6-AVG=+000,+000,+000 FLUXFCST=STD:075,075,075;SESC:075,075,075 BAI/PAI-FCST=010,010,020/008,010,020 KFCST=2234 4223 2234 4322 27DAY-AP=005,003 27DAY-KP=1101 1231 2110 0110 WARNINGS= ALERTS= !!END-DATA!! NOTE: The Effective Sunspot Number for 28 SEP 95 was 16.5. The Full Kp Indices for 29 SEP 95 are: 1+ 1- 2o 2+ 2- 1+ 1+ 0+ The 3-Hr Ap Indices for 29 SEP 95 are: 5 3 8 10 6 5 5 2 Greater than 2 MeV Electron Fluence value is not available. DRAO 10.7 cm Solar Radio Flux at 18Z, 20Z, 22Z: 73.5, 73.7, 74.6 sfu. SYNOPSIS OF ACTIVITY -------------------- Solar activity was very low. There was no activity of note. Solar activity forecast: solar activity is expected to be very low. STD: Solar WIND data was received between 13:15 and 16:00 UTC. The solar wind velocity was steady at approximately 375 km/sec. Density was variable from 10 to 15 p/cm^3 and the Bz IMF component was steadily northward at approximately +4 nT. The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Geophysical activity forecast: the geomagnetic field is expected to be unsettled for the next 48 hours. Day three is expected to be active due to a recurrent coronal hole. Event probabilities 30 sep-02 oct Class M 01/01/01 Class X 01/01/01 Proton 01/01/01 PCAF Green Geomagnetic activity probabilities 30 sep-02 oct A. Middle Latitudes Active 05/05/30 Minor Storm 05/05/15 Major-Severe Storm 01/01/10 B. High Latitudes Active 10/05/30 Minor Storm 05/05/20 Major-Severe Storm 05/01/10 HF propagation conditions were normal over all regions. Normal propagation is expected until about 02 October. On 02 October a recurrent disturbance should begin degrading upper-middle to polar latitude circuits. ENERGETIC ELECTRON FLUENCE 60-DAY HISTORY AT GREATER THAN 2 MEV +-----!------------------------+-!-------------------------- 3.75E+09|......+...................... ...+.. ... ......... .... |V. HIGH 2.16E+09|......+........V............. ...+.. ..V ..V...... .... |V. HIGH 1.25E+09|......+.......VV............. ...+.. ..V ..V...... .... |V. HIGH 7.18E+08|......+.......VVH............ ...+.. ..V .HV...... .... |High 4.14E+08|......+.......VVH............ ...+.. HHV HHV...... .... |Moderate 2.38E+08|......+.M.MM..VVH............ ...+.. HHV HHVM..... .... | 1.37E+08|......+.MMMM..VVH............ ...+.. HHV HHVM..MM. .... | 7.92E+07|......+.MMMMMMVVH............ ...+.. HHV HHVMM.MM. .... | 4.56E+07|......+.MMMMMMVVH............ ...+.. HHV HHVMMMMM. .... |Normal 2.63E+07|......+.MMMMMMVVH.N..N...NN.. ...+.. HHV HHVMMMMM. .... | 1.52E+07|......+.MMMMMMVVHNNNNN...NNN. ...+.. HHV HHVMMMMMN .... | 8.74E+06|......+.MMMMMMVVHNNNNN...NNN. ...+.. HHV HHVMMMMMN NN.. | 5.04E+06|......+.MMMMMMVVHNNNNN...NNNN NNN+.. HHV HHVMMMMMN NNN. | 2.91E+06|NN....+.MMMMMMVVHNNNNNNNNNNNN NNN+.. HHV HHVMMMMMN NNNN | 1.68E+06|NNNNNNnNMMMMMMVVHNNNNNNNNNNNN NNNnNN HHV HHVMMMMMN NNNN | 9.73E+05|NNNNNNnNMMMMMMVVHNNNNNNNNNNNN NNNnNN HHV HHVMMMMMN NNNN | +-----!------------------------+-!-------------------------- Aug Sep NOTES: "V" = Very High Fluence, "H" = High Fluence, etc, " " = No Data, "!" = Solar rotational boundary periods from current date. Electron fluence is flux integrated over time in units of cm^-2 day^-1 sr^-1 as measured by GOES-8. Fluence values that are moderate or higher have been correlated with satellite anomalies. Sustained high to very high fluence has been correlated with serious malfunctions. COPIES OF JOINT USAF/NOAA SESC SOLAR GEOPHYSICAL REPORTS ======================================================== REGIONS WITH SUNSPOTS. LOCATIONS VALID AT 29/2400Z SEPTEMBER ------------------------------------------------------------ NMBR LOCATION LO AREA Z LL NN MAG TYPE 7907 N07W71 069 0000 AXX 03 001 ALPHA 7908 N07W47 045 PLAGE 7909 S04W33 031 PLAGE REGIONS DUE TO RETURN 30 SEPTEMBER TO 02 OCTOBER NMBR LAT LO 7906 S19 257 LISTING OF SOLAR ENERGETIC EVENTS FOR 29 SEPTEMBER, 1995 -------------------------------------------------------- BEGIN MAX END RGN LOC XRAY OP 245MHZ 10CM SWEEP NONE POSSIBLE CORONAL MASS EJECTION EVENTS FOR 29 SEPTEMBER, 1995 ------------------------------------------------------------ BEGIN MAX END LOCATION TYPE SIZE DUR II IV NO EVENTS OBSERVED INFERRED CORONAL HOLES. LOCATIONS VALID AT 29/2400Z --------------------------------------------------- ISOLATED HOLES AND POLAR EXTENSIONS EAST SOUTH WEST NORTH CAR TYPE POL AREA OBSN NONE VISIBLE SUMMARY OF FLARE EVENTS FOR THE PREVIOUS UTC DAY ------------------------------------------------ Date Begin Max End Xray Op Region Locn 2695 MHz 8800 MHz 15.4 GHz ------ ---- ---- ---- ---- -- ------ ------ --------- --------- --------- 27 Sep: 0758 0759 0804 A4.3 SF 7909 S03E05 REGION FLARE STATISTICS FOR THE PREVIOUS UTC DAY ------------------------------------------------ C M X S 1 2 3 4 Total (%) -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- --- ------ Region 7909: 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 001 (100.0) Uncorrellated: 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 000 ( 0.0) Total Events: 001 optical and x-ray. EVENTS WITH SWEEPS AND/OR OPTICAL PHENOMENA FOR THE LAST UTC DAY ---------------------------------------------------------------- Date Begin Max End Xray Op Region Locn Sweeps/Optical Observations ------ ---- ---- ---- ---- -- ------ ------ --------------------------- NO EVENTS OBSERVED. NOTES: All times are in Universal Time (UT). Characters preceding begin, max, and end times are defined as: B = Before, U = Uncertain, A = After. All times associated with x-ray flares (ex. flares which produce associated x-ray bursts) refer to the begin, max, and end times of the x-rays. Flares which are not associated with x-ray signatures use the optical observations to determine the begin, max, and end times. Acronyms used to identify sweeps and optical phenomena include: II = Type II Sweep Frequency Event III = Type III Sweep IV = Type IV Sweep V = Type V Sweep Continuum = Continuum Radio Event Loop = Loop Prominence System, Spray = Limb Spray, Surge = Bright Limb Surge, EPL = Eruptive Prominence on the Limb. ** End of Daily Report ** /\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\ DAILY SUMMARY OF SOLAR GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY 30 SEPTEMBER, 1995 /\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\ (Based In-Part On SESC Observational Data) SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY INDICES FOR 30 SEPTEMBER, 1995 ------------------------------------------------------------- NOTE: The background x-ray flux was below class A1.0 levels. !!BEGIN!! (1.0) S.T.D. Solar Geophysical Data Broadcast for DAY 273, 09/30/95 10.7 FLUX=072.8 90-AVG=073 SSN=011 BKI=0022 2122 BAI=004 BGND-XRAY=A1.0 FLU1=*.*E+** FLU10=*.*E+** PKI=0122 2112 PAI=005 BOU-DEV=004,004,015,017,013,008,013,019 DEV-AVG=011 NT SWF=00:000 XRAY-MAX= A1.6 @ 0523UT XRAY-MIN= A1.0 @ 2349UT XRAY-AVG= A1.1 NEUTN-MAX= +002% @ 2120UT NEUTN-MIN= -002% @ 0840UT NEUTN-AVG= -0.0% PCA-MAX= +0.1DB @ 1535UT PCA-MIN= -0.3DB @ 1420UT PCA-AVG= -0.0DB BOUTF-MAX=55189NT @ 1032UT BOUTF-MIN=55174NT @ 1841UT BOUTF-AVG=55183NT GOES7-MAX=P:+000NT@ 0000UT GOES7-MIN=N:+000NT@ 0000UT G7-AVG=+076,+000,+000 GOES6-MAX=P:+000NT@ 0000UT GOES6-MIN=N:+000NT@ 0000UT G6-AVG=+000,+000,+000 FLUXFCST=STD:075,075,075;SESC:075,075,075 BAI/PAI-FCST=010,020,020/008,020,020 KFCST=2223 4322 2345 5432 27DAY-AP=003,005 27DAY-KP=2110 0110 1121 1212 WARNINGS= ALERTS= !!END-DATA!! NOTE: The Effective Sunspot Number for 29 SEP 95 was 21.3. The Full Kp Indices for 30 SEP 95 are: 0o 1- 2- 2+ 2- 1o 1+ 2o The 3-Hr Ap Indices for 30 SEP 95 are: 1 3 7 10 7 4 5 7 Greater than 2 MeV Electron Fluence value is not available. DRAO 10.7 cm Solar Radio Flux at 18Z, 20Z, 22Z: 72.9, 72.8, 73.0 sfu. SYNOPSIS OF ACTIVITY -------------------- Solar activity was very low. Region 7907 (N06W80) is the sole spot group visible. Solar activity forecast: solar activity is expected to persist at very low levels. STD: Solar WIND data from 15:45 to 18:15 UTC indicated a steady solar wind velocity of 330 km/sec. Density was also steady from 5 to 7 p/cm^3 and the Bz IMF component was fairly constantly northward at about +2 nT. The geomagnetic field was quiet. Geophysical activity forecast: the geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled the next 24 hours. A high speed solar wind stream is likely to bring generally active conditions the last two days. Event probabilities 01 oct-03 oct Class M 01/01/01 Class X 01/01/01 Proton 01/01/01 PCAF Green Geomagnetic activity probabilities 01 oct-03 oct A. Middle Latitudes Active 05/30/30 Minor Storm 05/20/20 Major-Severe Storm 01/15/15 B. High Latitudes Active 10/30/30 Minor Storm 05/25/25 Major-Severe Storm 05/15/20 HF propagation conditions were normal over all regions. Normal propagation should continue through 01 October. Gradual deterioration of high and polar latitude signals is expected on 02 October. Upper-middle latitude night-sector paths should also see periods of increased minor signal degradation begin on 02 October and continue through 03 October. ENERGETIC ELECTRON FLUENCE 60-DAY HISTORY AT GREATER THAN 2 MEV ------!-----------------------+--!-------------------------- 3.75E+09|......+..................... ....+. ... ......... .... |V. HIGH 2.16E+09|......+.......V............. ....+. ..V ..V...... .... |V. HIGH 1.25E+09|......+......VV............. ....+. ..V ..V...... .... |V. HIGH 7.18E+08|......+......VVH............ ....+. ..V .HV...... .... |High 4.14E+08|......+......VVH............ ....+. HHV HHV...... .... |Moderate 2.38E+08|......+M.MM..VVH............ ....+. HHV HHVM..... .... | 1.37E+08|......+MMMM..VVH............ ....+. HHV HHVM..MM. .... | 7.92E+07|......+MMMMMMVVH............ ....+. HHV HHVMM.MM. .... | 4.56E+07|......+MMMMMMVVH............ ....+. HHV HHVMMMMM. .... |Normal 2.63E+07|......+MMMMMMVVH.N..N...NN.. ....+. HHV HHVMMMMM. .... | 1.52E+07|......+MMMMMMVVHNNNNN...NNN. ....+. HHV HHVMMMMMN .... | 8.74E+06|......+MMMMMMVVHNNNNN...NNN. ....+. HHV HHVMMMMMN NN.. | 5.04E+06|......+MMMMMMVVHNNNNN...NNNN NNN.+. HHV HHVMMMMMN NNN. | 2.91E+06|N.....+MMMMMMVVHNNNNNNNNNNNN NNN.+. HHV HHVMMMMMN NNNN | 1.68E+06|NNNNNNnMMMMMMVVHNNNNNNNNNNNN NNNNnN HHV HHVMMMMMN NNNN | 9.73E+05|NNNNNNnMMMMMMVVHNNNNNNNNNNNN NNNNnN HHV HHVMMMMMN NNNN | ------!-----------------------+--!-------------------------- Sep NOTES: "V" = Very High Fluence, "H" = High Fluence, etc, " " = No Data, "!" = Solar rotational boundary periods from current date. Electron fluence is flux integrated over time in units of cm^-2 day^-1 sr^-1 as measured by GOES-8. Fluence values that are moderate or higher have been correlated with satellite anomalies. Sustained high to very high fluence has been correlated with serious malfunctions. COPIES OF JOINT USAF/NOAA SESC SOLAR GEOPHYSICAL REPORTS ======================================================== REGIONS WITH SUNSPOTS. LOCATIONS VALID AT 30/2400Z SEPTEMBER ------------------------------------------------------------ NMBR LOCATION LO AREA Z LL NN MAG TYPE 7907 N06W80 064 0000 AXX 00 001 ALPHA 7908 N07W60 044 PLAGE 7909 S04W46 030 PLAGE REGIONS DUE TO RETURN 01 OCTOBER TO 03 OCTOBER NMBR LAT LO NONE LISTING OF SOLAR ENERGETIC EVENTS FOR 30 SEPTEMBER, 1995 -------------------------------------------------------- A. ENERGETIC EVENTS: BEGIN MAX END RGN LOC XRAY OP 245MHZ 10CM SWEEP NONE POSSIBLE CORONAL MASS EJECTION EVENTS FOR 30 SEPTEMBER, 1995 ------------------------------------------------------------ BEGIN MAX END LOCATION TYPE SIZE DUR II IV NO EVENTS OBSERVED INFERRED CORONAL HOLES. LOCATIONS VALID AT 30/2400Z --------------------------------------------------- ISOLATED HOLES AND POLAR EXTENSIONS EAST SOUTH WEST NORTH CAR TYPE POL AREA OBSN 77 N23E12 N05E11 N07W01 N40E05 344 ISO POS 006 10830A SUMMARY OF FLARE EVENTS FOR THE PREVIOUS UTC DAY ------------------------------------------------ Date Begin Max End Xray Op Region Locn 2695 MHz 8800 MHz 15.4 GHz ------ ---- ---- ---- ---- -- ------ ------ --------- --------- --------- NO EVENTS OBSERVED. REGION FLARE STATISTICS FOR THE PREVIOUS UTC DAY ------------------------------------------------ C M X S 1 2 3 4 Total (%) -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- --- ------ Uncorrellated: 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 000 ( 0.0) Total Events: 000 optical and x-ray. EVENTS WITH SWEEPS AND/OR OPTICAL PHENOMENA FOR THE LAST UTC DAY ---------------------------------------------------------------- Date Begin Max End Xray Op Region Locn Sweeps/Optical Observations ------ ---- ---- ---- ---- -- ------ ------ --------------------------- NO EVENTS OBSERVED. NOTES: All times are in Universal Time (UT). Characters preceding begin, max, and end times are defined as: B = Before, U = Uncertain, A = After. All times associated with x-ray flares (ex. flares which produce associated x-ray bursts) refer to the begin, max, and end times of the x-rays. Flares which are not associated with x-ray signatures use the optical observations to determine the begin, max, and end times. Acronyms used to identify sweeps and optical phenomena include: II = Type II Sweep Frequency Event III = Type III Sweep IV = Type IV Sweep V = Type V Sweep Continuum = Continuum Radio Event Loop = Loop Prominence System, Spray = Limb Spray, Surge = Bright Limb Surge, EPL = Eruptive Prominence on the Limb. ** End of Daily Report ** /\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\ DAILY SUMMARY OF SOLAR GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY 01 OCTOBER, 1995 /\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\ (Based In-Part On SESC Observational Data) SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY INDICES FOR 01 OCTOBER, 1995 ----------------------------------------------------------- NOTE: The background x-ray flux was below class A1.0 levels today. !!BEGIN!! (1.0) S.T.D. Solar Geophysical Data Broadcast for DAY 274, 10/01/95 10.7 FLUX=072.6 90-AVG=073 SSN=000 BKI=2000 1112 BAI=002 BGND-XRAY=A1.0 FLU1=*.*E+** FLU10=*.*E+** PKI=1011 1112 PAI=004 BOU-DEV=010,002,004,003,005,006,006,010 DEV-AVG=005 NT SWF=00:000 XRAY-MAX= A1.2 @ 0054UT XRAY-MIN= A1.0 @ 2331UT XRAY-AVG= A1.0 NEUTN-MAX= +003% @ 0110UT NEUTN-MIN= -002% @ 1305UT NEUTN-AVG= +0.0% PCA-MAX= +0.1DB @ 1540UT PCA-MIN= -0.1DB @ 2150UT PCA-AVG= -0.0DB BOUTF-MAX=55190NT @ 2317UT BOUTF-MIN=55168NT @ 1842UT BOUTF-AVG=55183NT GOES7-MAX=P:+000NT@ 0000UT GOES7-MIN=N:+000NT@ 0000UT G7-AVG=+086,+000,+000 GOES6-MAX=P:+000NT@ 0000UT GOES6-MIN=N:+000NT@ 0000UT G6-AVG=+000,+000,+000 FLUXFCST=STD:075,075,070;SESC:075,075,070 BAI/PAI-FCST=020,020,015/020,020,015 KFCST=3345 4433 3335 5433 27DAY-AP=005,032 27DAY-KP=1121 1212 2345 6455 WARNINGS= ALERTS= !!END-DATA!! NOTE: The Effective Sunspot Number for 30 SEP 95 was 19.7. The Full Kp Indices for 01 SEP 95 are: 1o 0o 1o 1+ 1o 1+ 1o 2o The 3-Hr Ap Indices for 01 SEP 95 are: 4 1 4 5 4 5 4 8 Greater than 2 MeV Electron Fluence value is not available. DRAO 10.7 cm Solar Radio Flux at 18Z, 20Z, 22Z: 72.4, 72.6, 73.2 sfu. SYNOPSIS OF ACTIVITY -------------------- Solar activity was very low. There are currently no spotted regions on the disk. Solar activity forecast: solar activity is expected to persist at very low levels. The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Geophysical activity forecast: the geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to active during the next 24 hours due to a high speed solar wind stream from a recurrent coronal hole. Day two is also expected to be active, with day three falling off to unsettled. Event probabilities 02 oct-04 oct Class M 01/01/01 Class X 01/01/01 Proton 01/01/01 PCAF Green Geomagnetic activity probabilities 02 oct-04 oct A. Middle Latitudes Active 25/25/15 Minor Storm 25/25/05 Major-Severe Storm 15/15/01 B. High Latitudes Active 30/30/25 Minor Storm 25/25/15 Major-Severe Storm 20/15/05 HF propagation conditions were normal over all regions. Propagation should begin to show signs of weak degradation on high and polar latitude paths over the next 24 to 48 hours. By 04 October, conditions should begin returning to near-normal. ENERGETIC ELECTRON FLUENCE 60-DAY HISTORY AT GREATER THAN 2 MEV ------!----------------------+---!-------------------------+ 3.75E+09|......+.................... .....+ ... ......... .... |V. HIGH 2.16E+09|......+......V............. .....+ ..V ..V...... .... |V. HIGH 1.25E+09|......+.....VV............. .....+ ..V ..V...... .... |V. HIGH 7.18E+08|......+.....VVH............ .....+ ..V .HV...... .... |High 4.14E+08|......+.....VVH............ .....+ HHV HHV...... .... |Moderate 2.38E+08|......m.MM..VVH............ .....+ HHV HHVM..... .... | 1.37E+08|......mMMM..VVH............ .....+ HHV HHVM..MM. .... | 7.92E+07|......mMMMMMVVH............ .....+ HHV HHVMM.MM. .... | 4.56E+07|......mMMMMMVVH............ .....+ HHV HHVMMMMM. .... |Normal 2.63E+07|......mMMMMMVVH.N..N...NN.. .....+ HHV HHVMMMMM. .... | 1.52E+07|......mMMMMMVVHNNNNN...NNN. .....+ HHV HHVMMMMMN .... | 8.74E+06|......mMMMMMVVHNNNNN...NNN. .....+ HHV HHVMMMMMN NN.. | 5.04E+06|......mMMMMMVVHNNNNN...NNNN NNN..+ HHV HHVMMMMMN NNN. | 2.91E+06|......mMMMMMVVHNNNNNNNNNNNN NNN..+ HHV HHVMMMMMN NNNN | 1.68E+06|NNNNNNmMMMMMVVHNNNNNNNNNNNN NNNNNn HHV HHVMMMMMN NNNN | 9.73E+05|NNNNNNmMMMMMVVHNNNNNNNNNNNN NNNNNn HHV HHVMMMMMN NNNN | ------!----------------------+---!-------------------------+ Sep Oct NOTES: "V" = Very High Fluence, "H" = High Fluence, etc, " " = No Data, "!" = Solar rotational boundary periods from current date. Electron fluence is flux integrated over time in units of cm^-2 day^-1 sr^-1 as measured by GOES-8. Fluence values that are moderate or higher have been correlated with satellite anomalies. Sustained high to very high fluence has been correlated with serious malfunctions. COPIES OF JOINT USAF/NOAA SESC SOLAR GEOPHYSICAL REPORTS ======================================================== REGIONS WITH SUNSPOTS. LOCATIONS VALID AT 01/2400Z OCTOBER ---------------------------------------------------------- NMBR LOCATION LO AREA Z LL NN MAG TYPE 7908 N07W73 044 PLAGE 7909 S04W59 030 PLAGE REGIONS DUE TO RETURN 02 OCTOBER TO 04 OCTOBER NMBR LAT LO NONE LISTING OF SOLAR ENERGETIC EVENTS FOR 01 OCTOBER, 1995 ------------------------------------------------------ BEGIN MAX END RGN LOC XRAY OP 245MHZ 10CM SWEEP NONE POSSIBLE CORONAL MASS EJECTION EVENTS FOR 01 OCTOBER, 1995 ---------------------------------------------------------- BEGIN MAX END LOCATION TYPE SIZE DUR II IV NO EVENTS OBSERVED INFERRED CORONAL HOLES. LOCATIONS VALID AT 01/2400Z --------------------------------------------------- ISOLATED HOLES AND POLAR EXTENSIONS EAST SOUTH WEST NORTH CAR TYPE POL AREA OBSN NONE VISIBLE SUMMARY OF FLARE EVENTS FOR THE PREVIOUS UTC DAY ------------------------------------------------ Date Begin Max End Xray Op Region Locn 2695 MHz 8800 MHz 15.4 GHz ------ ---- ---- ---- ---- -- ------ ------ --------- --------- --------- NO EVENTS OBSERVED. REGION FLARE STATISTICS FOR THE PREVIOUS UTC DAY ------------------------------------------------ C M X S 1 2 3 4 Total (%) -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- --- ------ Uncorrellated: 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 000 ( 0.0) Total Events: 000 optical and x-ray. EVENTS WITH SWEEPS AND/OR OPTICAL PHENOMENA FOR THE LAST UTC DAY ---------------------------------------------------------------- Date Begin Max End Xray Op Region Locn Sweeps/Optical Observations ------ ---- ---- ---- ---- -- ------ ------ --------------------------- NO EVENTS OBSERVED. NOTES: All times are in Universal Time (UT). Characters preceding begin, max, and end times are defined as: B = Before, U = Uncertain, A = After. All times associated with x-ray flares (ex. flares which produce associated x-ray bursts) refer to the begin, max, and end times of the x-rays. Flares which are not associated with x-ray signatures use the optical observations to determine the begin, max, and end times. Acronyms used to identify sweeps and optical phenomena include: II = Type II Sweep Frequency Event III = Type III Sweep IV = Type IV Sweep V = Type V Sweep Continuum = Continuum Radio Event Loop = Loop Prominence System, Spray = Limb Spray, Surge = Bright Limb Surge, EPL = Eruptive Prominence on the Limb. ** End of Daily Report ** /\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\ DAILY SUMMARY OF SOLAR GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY 02 OCTOBER, 1995 /\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\ (Based In-Part On SESC Observational Data) SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY INDICES FOR 02 OCTOBER, 1995 ----------------------------------------------------------- NOTE: The background x-ray flux was below class A1.0 today. !!BEGIN!! (1.0) S.T.D. Solar Geophysical Data Broadcast for DAY 275, 10/02/95 10.7 FLUX=072.5 90-AVG=073 SSN=000 BKI=3133 3324 BAI=014 BGND-XRAY=A1.0 FLU1=2.3E+05 FLU10=1.7E+04 PKI=3033 4223 PAI=012 BOU-DEV=029,006,033,024,***,023,010,044 DEV-AVG=024 NT SWF=00:000 XRAY-MAX= A1.1 @ 1421UT XRAY-MIN= A1.0 @ 2335UT XRAY-AVG= A1.0 NEUTN-MAX= +002% @ 2110UT NEUTN-MIN= -002% @ 2035UT NEUTN-AVG= +0.2% PCA-MAX= +0.1DB @ 1420UT PCA-MIN= -0.1DB @ 2225UT PCA-AVG= -0.0DB BOUTF-MAX=55195NT @ 1201UT BOUTF-MIN=55160NT @ 1859UT BOUTF-AVG=55184NT GOES7-MAX=P:+000NT@ 0000UT GOES7-MIN=N:+000NT@ 0000UT G7-AVG=+054,+000,+000 GOES6-MAX=P:+000NT@ 0000UT GOES6-MIN=N:+000NT@ 0000UT G6-AVG=+000,+000,+000 FLUXFCST=STD:075,070,070;SESC:075,070,070 BAI/PAI-FCST=020,015,015/020,015,015 KFCST=3345 4433 3334 4333 27DAY-AP=032,024 27DAY-KP=2345 6455 6345 3323 WARNINGS= ALERTS= !!END-DATA!! NOTE: The Effective Sunspot Number for 01 OCT 95 was 18.4. The Full Kp Indices for 02 OCT 95 are: 3- 0+ 3o 3- 4o 2+ 2- 3+ The 3-Hr Ap Indices for 02 OCT 95 are: 12 2 15 14 26 10 7 20 Greater than 2 MeV Electron Fluence for 02 OCT is: 4.2E+06 DRAO 10.7 cm Solar Radio Flux at 18Z, 20Z, 22Z: 70.8, 72.5, 72.8 sfu. SYNOPSIS OF ACTIVITY -------------------- Solar activity was very low. There are currently no spotted regions on the disk. Solar activity forecast: solar activity is expected to persist at very low levels. The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels at middle latitudes, and quiet to active levels at high latitudes. Geophysical activity forecast: the geomagnetic field is expected to be active during the next 24 hours due to a high speed solar wind stream from a recurrent coronal hole. Day two is expected to be unsettled, with an increased probability for active conditions again on day three. Event probabilities 03 oct-05 oct Class M 01/01/01 Class X 01/01/01 Proton 01/01/01 PCAF Green Geomagnetic activity probabilities 03 oct-05 oct A. Middle Latitudes Active 25/15/25 Minor Storm 15/05/15 Major-Severe Storm 15/01/05 B. High Latitudes Active 30/25/25 Minor Storm 25/15/15 Major-Severe Storm 20/05/05 HF propagation conditions were normal over all regions. Slight signal degradation is expected over the high and polar latitude regions through 04 October inclusive. A return to near-normal conditions should be observed by 05 October. ENERGETIC ELECTRON FLUENCE 60-DAY HISTORY AT GREATER THAN 2 MEV ------!---------------------+----!------------------------+- 3.75E+09|......+................... ...... ... ......... .... .|V. HIGH 2.16E+09|......+.....V............. ...... ..V ..V...... .... .|V. HIGH 1.25E+09|......+....VV............. ...... ..V ..V...... .... .|V. HIGH 7.18E+08|......+....VVH............ ...... ..V .HV...... .... .|High 4.14E+08|......+....VVH............ ...... HHV HHV...... .... .|Moderate 2.38E+08|.....M+MM..VVH............ ...... HHV HHVM..... .... .| 1.37E+08|.....MmMM..VVH............ ...... HHV HHVM..MM. .... .| 7.92E+07|.....MmMMMMVVH............ ...... HHV HHVMM.MM. .... .| 4.56E+07|.....MmMMMMVVH............ ...... HHV HHVMMMMM. .... .|Normal 2.63E+07|.....MmMMMMVVH.N..N...NN.. ...... HHV HHVMMMMM. .... .| 1.52E+07|.....MmMMMMVVHNNNNN...NNN. ...... HHV HHVMMMMMN .... .| 8.74E+06|.....MmMMMMVVHNNNNN...NNN. ...... HHV HHVMMMMMN NN.. .| 5.04E+06|.....MmMMMMVVHNNNNN...NNNN NNN... HHV HHVMMMMMN NNN. .| 2.91E+06|.....MmMMMMVVHNNNNNNNNNNNN NNN... HHV HHVMMMMMN NNNN N| 1.68E+06|NNNNNMmMMMMVVHNNNNNNNNNNNN NNNNNN HHV HHVMMMMMN NNNN N| 9.73E+05|NNNNNMmMMMMVVHNNNNNNNNNNNN NNNNNN HHV HHVMMMMMN NNNN N| ------!---------------------+----!------------------------+- Sep Oct NOTES: "V" = Very High Fluence, "H" = High Fluence, etc, " " = No Data, "!" = Solar rotational boundary periods from current date. Electron fluence is flux integrated over time in units of cm^-2 day^-1 sr^-1 as measured by GOES-8. Fluence values that are moderate or higher have been correlated with satellite anomalies. Sustained high to very high fluence has been correlated with serious malfunctions. COPIES OF JOINT USAF/NOAA SESC SOLAR GEOPHYSICAL REPORTS ======================================================== REGIONS WITH SUNSPOTS. LOCATIONS VALID AT 02/2400Z OCTOBER ---------------------------------------------------------- NMBR LOCATION LO AREA Z LL NN MAG TYPE 7908 N07W86 044 PLAGE 7909 S04W72 030 PLAGE REGIONS DUE TO RETURN 03 OCTOBER TO 05 OCTOBER NMBR LAT LO NONE LISTING OF SOLAR ENERGETIC EVENTS FOR 02 OCTOBER, 1995 ------------------------------------------------------ BEGIN MAX END RGN LOC XRAY OP 245MHZ 10CM SWEEP NONE POSSIBLE CORONAL MASS EJECTION EVENTS FOR 02 OCTOBER, 1995 ---------------------------------------------------------- BEGIN MAX END LOCATION TYPE SIZE DUR II IV NO EVENTS OBSERVED INFERRED CORONAL HOLES. LOCATIONS VALID AT 02/2400Z --------------------------------------------------- ISOLATED HOLES AND POLAR EXTENSIONS EAST SOUTH WEST NORTH CAR TYPE POL AREA OBSN NONE VISIBLE SUMMARY OF FLARE EVENTS FOR THE PREVIOUS UTC DAY ------------------------------------------------ Date Begin Max End Xray Op Region Locn 2695 MHz 8800 MHz 15.4 GHz ------ ---- ---- ---- ---- -- ------ ------ --------- --------- --------- NO EVENTS OBSERVED. REGION FLARE STATISTICS FOR THE PREVIOUS UTC DAY ------------------------------------------------ C M X S 1 2 3 4 Total (%) -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- --- ------ Uncorrellated: 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 000 ( 0.0) Total Events: 000 optical and x-ray. EVENTS WITH SWEEPS AND/OR OPTICAL PHENOMENA FOR THE LAST UTC DAY ---------------------------------------------------------------- Date Begin Max End Xray Op Region Locn Sweeps/Optical Observations ------ ---- ---- ---- ---- -- ------ ------ --------------------------- NO EVENTS OBSERVED. NOTES: All times are in Universal Time (UT). Characters preceding begin, max, and end times are defined as: B = Before, U = Uncertain, A = After. All times associated with x-ray flares (ex. flares which produce associated x-ray bursts) refer to the begin, max, and end times of the x-rays. Flares which are not associated with x-ray signatures use the optical observations to determine the begin, max, and end times. Acronyms used to identify sweeps and optical phenomena include: II = Type II Sweep Frequency Event III = Type III Sweep IV = Type IV Sweep V = Type V Sweep Continuum = Continuum Radio Event Loop = Loop Prominence System, Spray = Limb Spray, Surge = Bright Limb Surge, EPL = Eruptive Prominence on the Limb. ** End of Daily Report ** /\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\ DAILY SUMMARY OF SOLAR GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY 03 OCTOBER, 1995 /\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\ (Based In-Part On SESC Observational Data) SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY INDICES FOR 03 OCTOBER, 1995 ----------------------------------------------------------- NOTE: The background x-ray flux remained below A1.0 levels today. !!BEGIN!! (1.0) S.T.D. Solar Geophysical Data Broadcast for DAY 276, 10/03/95 10.7 FLUX=071.0 90-AVG=073 SSN=000 BKI=4324 4443 BAI=021 BGND-XRAY=A1.0 FLU1=5.5E+05 FLU10=1.7E+04 PKI=4334 4433 PAI=019 BOU-DEV=063,039,017,056,042,044,046,023 DEV-AVG=041 NT SWF=00:000 XRAY-MAX= A2.0 @ 1532UT XRAY-MIN= A1.0 @ 1544UT XRAY-AVG= A1.3 NEUTN-MAX= +002% @ 0910UT NEUTN-MIN= -003% @ 0750UT NEUTN-AVG= -0.1% PCA-MAX= +0.1DB @ 1305UT PCA-MIN= -0.3DB @ 1545UT PCA-AVG= -0.0DB BOUTF-MAX=55192NT @ 2356UT BOUTF-MIN=55158NT @ 1525UT BOUTF-AVG=55184NT GOES7-MAX=P:+000NT@ 0000UT GOES7-MIN=N:+000NT@ 0000UT G7-AVG=+051,+000,+000 GOES6-MAX=P:+000NT@ 0000UT GOES6-MIN=N:+000NT@ 0000UT G6-AVG=+000,+000,+000 FLUXFCST=STD:070,070,070;SESC:070,070,070 BAI/PAI-FCST=015,015,010/015,015,012 KFCST=3223 3233 3223 3233 27DAY-AP=024,025 27DAY-KP=6345 3323 4445 3332 WARNINGS= ALERTS= !!END-DATA!! NOTE: The Effective Sunspot Number for 02 OCT 95 was 18.4. The Full Kp Indices for 03 OCT 95 are: 4o 3o 3- 4- 4o 4- 3+ 3- The 3-Hr Ap Indices for 03 OCT 95 are: 29 16 13 22 27 24 20 14 Greater than 2 MeV Electron Fluence for 03 OCT is: 3.5E+07 DRAO 10.7 cm Solar Radio Flux at 18Z, 20Z, 22Z: 70.0, 71.0, 71.7 sfu. SYNOPSIS OF ACTIVITY -------------------- Solar activity was very low. The solar disk continues to be spotless. Solar activity forecast: solar activity is expected to be very low. The geomagnetic field ranged from quiet to active levels with some minor storm periods at high latitudes. Wind data from 1450-1710Z showed slightly fast (410-430 km/s), relatively low density (5-10 p/cc) wind with steadily southward Bz. The greater than 2 MeV electron levels were at high levels for a brief portion of the day. Geophysical activity forecast: the geomagnetic field is expected to be unsettled to slightly active over the next two days. Conditions should return to unsettled levels by the third day. Event probabilities 04 oct-06 oct Class M 01/01/01 Class X 01/01/01 Proton 01/01/01 PCAF Green Geomagnetic activity probabilities 04 oct-06 oct A. Middle Latitudes Active 30/30/10 Minor Storm 05/05/05 Major-Severe Storm 01/01/01 B. High Latitudes Active 35/35/10 Minor Storm 05/05/05 Major-Severe Storm 01/01/01 HF propagation conditions were near-normal over all but the high and polar latitude regions. After approximately 06:00 UTC, high and polar latitude paths began to experience poor to occassionally very poor propagation due to periods of geomagnetic and auroral substorming. Paths most heavily affected were night-sector transauroral circuits. Similar conditions are expected through 05 October, although conditions should begin showing signs of improvements over the higher latitude regions sometime later on 05 and more particularly on 06 October ENERGETIC ELECTRON FLUENCE 60-DAY HISTORY AT GREATER THAN 2 MEV ------!--------------------+-----!-----------------------+-- 3.75E+09|......+.................. ...... +.. ......... .... ..|V. HIGH 2.16E+09|......+....V............. ...... +.V ..V...... .... ..|V. HIGH 1.25E+09|......+...VV............. ...... +.V ..V...... .... ..|V. HIGH 7.18E+08|......+...VVH............ ...... +.V .HV...... .... ..|High 4.14E+08|......+...VVH............ ...... hHV HHV...... .... ..|Moderate 2.38E+08|....M.mM..VVH............ ...... hHV HHVM..... .... ..| 1.37E+08|....MMmM..VVH............ ...... hHV HHVM..MM. .... ..| 7.92E+07|....MMmMMMVVH............ ...... hHV HHVMM.MM. .... ..| 4.56E+07|....MMmMMMVVH............ ...... hHV HHVMMMMM. .... ..|Normal 2.63E+07|....MMmMMMVVH.N..N...NN.. ...... hHV HHVMMMMM. .... .N| 1.52E+07|....MMmMMMVVHNNNNN...NNN. ...... hHV HHVMMMMMN .... .N| 8.74E+06|....MMmMMMVVHNNNNN...NNN. ...... hHV HHVMMMMMN NN.. .N| 5.04E+06|....MMmMMMVVHNNNNN...NNNN NNN... hHV HHVMMMMMN NNN. .N| 2.91E+06|....MMmMMMVVHNNNNNNNNNNNN NNN... hHV HHVMMMMMN NNNN NN| 1.68E+06|NNNNMMmMMMVVHNNNNNNNNNNNN NNNNNN hHV HHVMMMMMN NNNN NN| 9.73E+05|NNNNMMmMMMVVHNNNNNNNNNNNN NNNNNN hHV HHVMMMMMN NNNN NN| ------!--------------------+-----!-----------------------+-- Sep Oct NOTES: "V" = Very High Fluence, "H" = High Fluence, etc, " " = No Data, "!" = Solar rotational boundary periods from current date. Electron fluence is flux integrated over time in units of cm^-2 day^-1 sr^-1 as measured by GOES-8. Fluence values that are moderate or higher have been correlated with satellite anomalies. Sustained high to very high fluence has been correlated with serious malfunctions. COPIES OF JOINT USAF/NOAA SESC SOLAR GEOPHYSICAL REPORTS ======================================================== REGIONS WITH SUNSPOTS. LOCATIONS VALID AT 03/2400Z OCTOBER ---------------------------------------------------------- NMBR LOCATION LO AREA Z LL NN MAG TYPE 7909 S04W85 030 PLAGE REGIONS DUE TO RETURN 04 OCTOBER TO 06 OCTOBER NMBR LAT LO NONE LISTING OF SOLAR ENERGETIC EVENTS FOR 03 OCTOBER, 1995 ------------------------------------------------------ BEGIN MAX END RGN LOC XRAY OP 245MHZ 10CM SWEEP NONE POSSIBLE CORONAL MASS EJECTION EVENTS FOR 03 OCTOBER, 1995 ---------------------------------------------------------- BEGIN MAX END LOCATION TYPE SIZE DUR II IV NO EVENTS OBSERVED INFERRED CORONAL HOLES. LOCATIONS VALID AT 03/2400Z --------------------------------------------------- ISOLATED HOLES AND POLAR EXTENSIONS EAST SOUTH WEST NORTH CAR TYPE POL AREA OBSN 77 N25W21 N20W23 N31W38 N31W38 339 ISO POS 004 10830A SUMMARY OF FLARE EVENTS FOR THE PREVIOUS UTC DAY ------------------------------------------------ Date Begin Max End Xray Op Region Locn 2695 MHz 8800 MHz 15.4 GHz ------ ---- ---- ---- ---- -- ------ ------ --------- --------- --------- NO EVENTS OBSERVED. REGION FLARE STATISTICS FOR THE PREVIOUS UTC DAY ------------------------------------------------ C M X S 1 2 3 4 Total (%) -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- --- ------ Uncorrellated: 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 000 ( 0.0) Total Events: 000 optical and x-ray. EVENTS WITH SWEEPS AND/OR OPTICAL PHENOMENA FOR THE LAST UTC DAY ---------------------------------------------------------------- Date Begin Max End Xray Op Region Locn Sweeps/Optical Observations ------ ---- ---- ---- ---- -- ------ ------ --------------------------- NO EVENTS OBSERVED. NOTES: All times are in Universal Time (UT). Characters preceding begin, max, and end times are defined as: B = Before, U = Uncertain, A = After. All times associated with x-ray flares (ex. flares which produce associated x-ray bursts) refer to the begin, max, and end times of the x-rays. Flares which are not associated with x-ray signatures use the optical observations to determine the begin, max, and end times. Acronyms used to identify sweeps and optical phenomena include: II = Type II Sweep Frequency Event III = Type III Sweep IV = Type IV Sweep V = Type V Sweep Continuum = Continuum Radio Event Loop = Loop Prominence System, Spray = Limb Spray, Surge = Bright Limb Surge, EPL = Eruptive Prominence on the Limb. ** End of Daily Report ** /\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\ DAILY SUMMARY OF SOLAR GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY 04 OCTOBER, 1995 /\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\ (Based In-Part On SESC Observational Data) SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY INDICES FOR 04 OCTOBER, 1995 ----------------------------------------------------------- NOTE: The background x-ray flux was below class A1.0 levels. !!BEGIN!! (1.0) S.T.D. Solar Geophysical Data Broadcast for DAY 277, 10/04/95 10.7 FLUX=071 90-AVG=073 SSN=000 BKI=3436 5444 BAI=033 BGND-XRAY=A1.0 FLU1=1.4E+06 FLU10=1.7E+04 PKI=3447 6534 PAI=050 BOU-DEV=022,045,030,171,***,***,041,066 DEV-AVG=063 NT SWF=00:000 XRAY-MAX= A1.9 @ 1539UT XRAY-MIN= A1.0 @ 2336UT XRAY-AVG= A1.4 NEUTN-MAX= +001% @ 2300UT NEUTN-MIN= -002% @ 2235UT NEUTN-AVG= -0.3% PCA-MAX= +0.0DB @ 2355UT PCA-MIN= -0.1DB @ 2225UT PCA-AVG= -0.0DB BOUTF-MAX=55203NT @ 2354UT BOUTF-MIN=55140NT @ 1530UT BOUTF-AVG=55178NT GOES7-MAX=P:+000NT@ 0000UT GOES7-MIN=N:+000NT@ 0000UT G7-AVG=+069,+000,+000 GOES6-MAX=P:+000NT@ 0000UT GOES6-MIN=N:+000NT@ 0000UT G6-AVG=+000,+000,+000 FLUXFCST=STD:070,070,070;SESC:070,070,070 BAI/PAI-FCST=020,020,015/022,015,010 KFCST=3334 4333 3334 4333 27DAY-AP=025,035 27DAY-KP=4445 3332 3566 4432 WARNINGS=*GSTRM ALERTS=**MINSTRM !!END-DATA!! NOTE: The Effective Sunspot Number for 03 OCT 95 was 15.5. The Full Kp Indices for 04 OCT 95 are: 3o 4o 4+ 7+ 6o 5o 3o 4+ The 3-Hr Ap Indices for 04 OCT 95 are: 15 27 32 150 77 51 15 31 Greater than 2 MeV Electron Fluence for 04 OCT is: 4.5E+07 DRAO 10.7 cm Solar Radio Flux at 18Z, 20Z, 22Z: 70.7, N/A, 71.4 sfu. SYNOPSIS OF ACTIVITY -------------------- Solar activity was very low. The solar disk continues to be spotless. Solar activity forecast: solar activity is expected to be very low. STD: A period of weak surging was reported on the southwest limb near S10W90 from 10:30 UTC to 12:30 UTC. The disk was otherwise quiet. WIND observations from 14:18 to 17:06 UTC indicated a solar wind velocity that varied from 620 to 670 km/sec. Density varied between 5 and 9 p/cm^3. The Bz IMF component ranged from a southward -7 nT to a northward +6 nT. There were prolonged periods of steadily negative Bz which of course corresponded with the strong periods of geomagnetic activity. Matters were complicated slightly with three observed sector crossings (as indicated by phi measurements) at 15:15, 15:58 and 16:09 UTC. The geomagnetic field was at unsettled to storm levels. A minor geomagnetic storm commenced gradually at 0900Z. High latitude sites experienced periods of major to severe storm levels. WIND data from 1415-1710Z show a high speed low density solar wind with prolonged periods of negative Bz. This signature is similar to that seen by WIND 27 days ago, strongly suggesting that the effects are due to a recurrent coronal hole. The greater than 2 MeV flux was above the moderate threshold (100 pfu) for the majority of the interval from 1500-2100Z. Geophysical activity forecast: the geomagnetic field is expected to be mostly active for the next two days based on recurrence. Conditions should subside to unsettled to slightly active by the third day. Event probabilities 05 oct-07 oct Class M 01/01/01 Class X 01/01/01 Proton 01/01/01 PCAF Green Geomagnetic activity probabilities 05 oct-07 oct A. Middle Latitudes Active 45/45/40 Minor Storm 20/20/20 Major-Severe Storm 05/05/05 B. High Latitudes Active 50/50/45 Minor Storm 25/25/20 Major-Severe Storm 10/10/10 HF propagation conditions were below-normal over the high and polar latitudes today. Increased levels of geomagnetic and auroral activity resulted in enhanced absorption, fading, and multipathing - particularly on transauroral circuits. Similar conditions are expected over the next 24 hours before gradually improving on 06 October. ENERGETIC ELECTRON FLUENCE 60-DAY HISTORY AT GREATER THAN 2 MEV ------!-------------------+------!----------------------+--- 3.75E+09|......+................. ...... .+. ......... .... ...|V. HIGH 2.16E+09|......+...V............. ...... .+V ..V...... .... ...|V. HIGH 1.25E+09|......+..VV............. ...... .+V ..V...... .... ...|V. HIGH 7.18E+08|......+..VVH............ ...... .+V .HV...... .... ...|High 4.14E+08|......+..VVH............ ...... HhV HHV...... .... ...|Moderate 2.38E+08|...M.Mm..VVH............ ...... HhV HHVM..... .... ...| 1.37E+08|...MMMm..VVH............ ...... HhV HHVM..MM. .... ...| 7.92E+07|...MMMmMMVVH............ ...... HhV HHVMM.MM. .... ...| 4.56E+07|...MMMmMMVVH............ ...... HhV HHVMMMMM. .... ...|Normal 2.63E+07|...MMMmMMVVH.N..N...NN.. ...... HhV HHVMMMMM. .... .NN| 1.52E+07|...MMMmMMVVHNNNNN...NNN. ...... HhV HHVMMMMMN .... .NN| 8.74E+06|...MMMmMMVVHNNNNN...NNN. ...... HhV HHVMMMMMN NN.. .NN| 5.04E+06|...MMMmMMVVHNNNNN...NNNN NNN... HhV HHVMMMMMN NNN. .NN| 2.91E+06|...MMMmMMVVHNNNNNNNNNNNN NNN... HhV HHVMMMMMN NNNN NNN| 1.68E+06|NNNMMMmMMVVHNNNNNNNNNNNN NNNNNN HhV HHVMMMMMN NNNN NNN| 9.73E+05|NNNMMMmMMVVHNNNNNNNNNNNN NNNNNN HhV HHVMMMMMN NNNN NNN| ------!-------------------+------!----------------------+--- Sep Oct NOTES: "V" = Very High Fluence, "H" = High Fluence, etc, " " = No Data, "!" = Solar rotational boundary periods from current date. Electron fluence is flux integrated over time in units of cm^-2 day^-1 sr^-1 as measured by GOES-8. Fluence values that are moderate or higher have been correlated with satellite anomalies. Sustained high to very high fluence has been correlated with serious malfunctions. COPIES OF JOINT USAF/NOAA SESC SOLAR GEOPHYSICAL REPORTS ======================================================== REGIONS WITH SUNSPOTS. LOCATIONS VALID AT 04/2400Z OCTOBER ---------------------------------------------------------- NMBR LOCATION LO AREA Z LL NN MAG TYPE NONE REGIONS DUE TO RETURN 05 OCTOBER TO 07 OCTOBER NMBR LAT LO NONE LISTING OF SOLAR ENERGETIC EVENTS FOR 04 OCTOBER, 1995 ------------------------------------------------------ BEGIN MAX END RGN LOC XRAY OP 245MHZ 10CM SWEEP NONE POSSIBLE CORONAL MASS EJECTION EVENTS FOR 04 OCTOBER, 1995 ---------------------------------------------------------- BEGIN MAX END LOCATION TYPE SIZE DUR II IV NO EVENTS OBSERVED INFERRED CORONAL HOLES. LOCATIONS VALID AT 04/2400Z --------------------------------------------------- ISOLATED HOLES AND POLAR EXTENSIONS EAST SOUTH WEST NORTH CAR TYPE POL AREA OBSN 77 N27W33 N18W42 N25W46 N32W38 335 ISO POS 002 10830A SUMMARY OF FLARE EVENTS FOR THE PREVIOUS UTC DAY ------------------------------------------------ Date Begin Max End Xray Op Region Locn 2695 MHz 8800 MHz 15.4 GHz ------ ---- ---- ---- ---- -- ------ ------ --------- --------- --------- NO EVENTS OBSERVED. REGION FLARE STATISTICS FOR THE PREVIOUS UTC DAY ------------------------------------------------ C M X S 1 2 3 4 Total (%) -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- --- ------ Uncorrellated: 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 000 ( 0.0) Total Events: 000 optical and x-ray. EVENTS WITH SWEEPS AND/OR OPTICAL PHENOMENA FOR THE LAST UTC DAY ---------------------------------------------------------------- Date Begin Max End Xray Op Region Locn Sweeps/Optical Observations ------ ---- ---- ---- ---- -- ------ ------ --------------------------- NO EVENTS OBSERVED. NOTES: All times are in Universal Time (UT). Characters preceding begin, max, and end times are defined as: B = Before, U = Uncertain, A = After. All times associated with x-ray flares (ex. flares which produce associated x-ray bursts) refer to the begin, max, and end times of the x-rays. Flares which are not associated with x-ray signatures use the optical observations to determine the begin, max, and end times. Acronyms used to identify sweeps and optical phenomena include: II = Type II Sweep Frequency Event III = Type III Sweep IV = Type IV Sweep V = Type V Sweep Continuum = Continuum Radio Event Loop = Loop Prominence System, Spray = Limb Spray, Surge = Bright Limb Surge, EPL = Eruptive Prominence on the Limb. ** End of Daily Report ** /\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\ DAILY SUMMARY OF SOLAR GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY 05 OCTOBER, 1995 /\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\ (Based In-Part On SESC Observational Data) SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY INDICES FOR 05 OCTOBER, 1995 ----------------------------------------------------------- NOTE: The greater than 2 MeV electron fluence was high today. The background x-ray flux was below class A1.0 levels. !!BEGIN!! (1.0) S.T.D. Solar Geophysical Data Broadcast for DAY 278, 10/05/95 10.7 FLUX=069.8 90-AVG=073 SSN=000 BKI=4444 5223 BAI=023 BGND-XRAY=A1.0 FLU1=4.1E+06 FLU10=1.7E+04 PKI=4445 5224 PAI=026 BOU-DEV=050,059,058,050,092,012,010,033 DEV-AVG=045 NT SWF=00:000 XRAY-MAX= A1.4 @ 2326UT XRAY-MIN= A1.0 @ 2359UT XRAY-AVG= A1.0 NEUTN-MAX= +002% @ 1200UT NEUTN-MIN= -003% @ 0805UT NEUTN-AVG= -0.3% PCA-MAX= +0.1DB @ 1430UT PCA-MIN= -0.5DB @ 1455UT PCA-AVG= +0.0DB BOUTF-MAX=55200NT @ 0323UT BOUTF-MIN=55157NT @ 1243UT BOUTF-AVG=55182NT GOES7-MAX=P:+000NT@ 0000UT GOES7-MIN=N:+000NT@ 0000UT G7-AVG=+065,+000,+000 GOES6-MAX=P:+000NT@ 0000UT GOES6-MIN=N:+000NT@ 0000UT G6-AVG=+000,+000,+000 FLUXFCST=STD:070,070,070;SESC:070,070,070 BAI/PAI-FCST=015,015,020/015,013,020 KFCST=3333 3333 3333 3333 27DAY-AP=035,015 27DAY-KP=3566 4432 3543 3212 WARNINGS= ALERTS= !!END-DATA!! NOTE: The Effective Sunspot Number for 04 OCT 95 was 15.9. The Full Kp Indices for 05 OCT 95 are: 4- 4o 4o 5- 5+ 2+ 2o 4- The 3-Hr Ap Indices for 05 OCT 95 are: 21 28 30 40 55 9 7 21 Greater than 2 MeV Electron Fluence for 05 OCT is: 8.7E+08 DRAO 10.7 cm Solar Radio Flux at 18Z, 20Z, 22Z: 69.8, 69.8, 70.7 sfu. SYNOPSIS OF ACTIVITY -------------------- Solar activity was very low. The solar disk remains spotless. Coronal loops were visible to Yohkoh-SXT today on east limb from S00 to S20, suggesting that a new spot or plage region will soon rotate into view. Solar activity forecast: solar activity is expected to be very low. STD: The background x-ray flux has been gradually increasing over the last 24 hours and should reach or exceed class A1.0 levels over the next 24 hours. The source of this enhancement is the aforementioned new x-ray emission region on the southeast limb. SOLAR WIND OBSERVATIONS Time Interval: 05/1418Z to 05/1644Z. Wind Velocity: 570 to 590 km/sec. Wind Density: 3 to 5 p/cm^3. Bz IMF Intensity: Northward: 0 to +3.0 nT from 1418 to 1644Z Southward: 0 to -2.5 nT from 1610 to 1644Z The geomagnetic field ranged from quiet to minor storm levels with some major storm periods at high latitudes. Active to minor storm levels prevailed from the beginning of the period through 1500Z. Since 1500Z activity has been at quiet to unsettled levels. This disturbance was most likely caused by a recurrent coronal hole: wind data showed high speed, low density solar wind during today's observing window. Greater than 2 MeV electron fluxes have been at high levels during the period. Geophysical activity forecast: the geomagnetic field is expected to be unsettled with possible brief active periods over the next two days. An increase to mostly active is ex- pected on day three due to recurrence. Event probabilities 06 oct-08 oct Class M 01/01/01 Class X 01/01/01 Proton 01/01/01 PCAF Green Geomagnetic activity probabilities 06 oct-08 oct A. Middle Latitudes Active 30/30/45 Minor Storm 05/05/15 Major-Severe Storm 01/01/01 B. High Latitudes Active 35/35/50 Minor Storm 10/10/20 Major-Severe Storm 05/05/05 HF propagation conditions were below-normal from the upper-middle to the polar latitudes. Fading, multipathing and absorption were the strongest on transauroral and transpolar circuits. Similar conditions are expected over the next 24 hours. Some weak improvements will be possible on 07 October before another recurrent disturbance returns on 08 October and degrades high and polar latitude propagation to poor and occassionally very poor levels again. A more solid recovery is expected to gradually begin later on 09 or 10 October. ENERGETIC ELECTRON FLUENCE 60-DAY HISTORY AT GREATER THAN 2 MEV ------!------------------+-------!---------------------+---- 3.75E+09|......+................ ...... ..+ ......... .... ....|V. HIGH 2.16E+09|......+..V............. ...... ..v ..V...... .... ....|V. HIGH 1.25E+09|......+.VV............. ...... ..v ..V...... .... ....|V. HIGH 7.18E+08|......+.VVH............ ...... ..v .HV...... .... ...H|High 4.14E+08|......+.VVH............ ...... HHv HHV...... .... ...H|Moderate 2.38E+08|..M.MM+.VVH............ ...... HHv HHVM..... .... ...H| 1.37E+08|..MMMM+.VVH............ ...... HHv HHVM..MM. .... ...H| 7.92E+07|..MMMMmMVVH............ ...... HHv HHVMM.MM. .... ...H| 4.56E+07|..MMMMmMVVH............ ...... HHv HHVMMMMM. .... ...H|Normal 2.63E+07|..MMMMmMVVH.N..N...NN.. ...... HHv HHVMMMMM. .... .NNH| 1.52E+07|..MMMMmMVVHNNNNN...NNN. ...... HHv HHVMMMMMN .... .NNH| 8.74E+06|..MMMMmMVVHNNNNN...NNN. ...... HHv HHVMMMMMN NN.. .NNH| 5.04E+06|..MMMMmMVVHNNNNN...NNNN NNN... HHv HHVMMMMMN NNN. .NNH| 2.91E+06|..MMMMmMVVHNNNNNNNNNNNN NNN... HHv HHVMMMMMN NNNN NNNH| 1.68E+06|NNMMMMmMVVHNNNNNNNNNNNN NNNNNN HHv HHVMMMMMN NNNN NNNH| 9.73E+05|NNMMMMmMVVHNNNNNNNNNNNN NNNNNN HHv HHVMMMMMN NNNN NNNH| ------!------------------+-------!---------------------+---- Sep Oct NOTES: "V" = Very High Fluence, "H" = High Fluence, etc, " " = No Data, "!" = Solar rotational boundary periods from current date. Electron fluence is flux integrated over time in units of cm^-2 day^-1 sr^-1 as measured by GOES-8. Fluence values that are moderate or higher have been correlated with satellite anomalies. Sustained high to very high fluence has been correlated with serious malfunctions. COPIES OF JOINT USAF/NOAA SESC SOLAR GEOPHYSICAL REPORTS ======================================================== REGIONS WITH SUNSPOTS. LOCATIONS VALID AT 05/2400Z OCTOBER ---------------------------------------------------------- NMBR LOCATION LO AREA Z LL NN MAG TYPE NONE REGIONS DUE TO RETURN 06 OCTOBER TO 08 OCTOBER NMBR LAT LO NONE LISTING OF SOLAR ENERGETIC EVENTS FOR 05 OCTOBER, 1995 ------------------------------------------------------ BEGIN MAX END RGN LOC XRAY OP 245MHZ 10CM SWEEP NONE POSSIBLE CORONAL MASS EJECTION EVENTS FOR 05 OCTOBER, 1995 ---------------------------------------------------------- BEGIN MAX END LOCATION TYPE SIZE DUR II IV NO EVENTS OBSERVED INFERRED CORONAL HOLES. LOCATIONS VALID AT 05/2400Z --------------------------------------------------- ISOLATED HOLES AND POLAR EXTENSIONS EAST SOUTH WEST NORTH CAR TYPE POL AREA OBSN 77 N25W45 N20W52 N32W66 N32W66 338 ISO POS 005 10830A 78 N26E01 N23W05 N30W14 N35W09 287 ISO POS 003 10830A 79 S18W05 S23W14 S18W27 S12W17 295 ISO POS 004 10830A SUMMARY OF FLARE EVENTS FOR THE PREVIOUS UTC DAY ------------------------------------------------ Date Begin Max End Xray Op Region Locn 2695 MHz 8800 MHz 15.4 GHz ------ ---- ---- ---- ---- -- ------ ------ --------- --------- --------- NO EVENTS OBSERVED. REGION FLARE STATISTICS FOR THE PREVIOUS UTC DAY ------------------------------------------------ C M X S 1 2 3 4 Total (%) -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- --- ------ Uncorrellated: 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 000 ( 0.0) Total Events: 000 optical and x-ray. EVENTS WITH SWEEPS AND/OR OPTICAL PHENOMENA FOR THE LAST UTC DAY ---------------------------------------------------------------- Date Begin Max End Xray Op Region Locn Sweeps/Optical Observations ------ ---- ---- ---- ---- -- ------ ------ --------------------------- NO EVENTS OBSERVED. NOTES: All times are in Universal Time (UT). Characters preceding begin, max, and end times are defined as: B = Before, U = Uncertain, A = After. All times associated with x-ray flares (ex. flares which produce associated x-ray bursts) refer to the begin, max, and end times of the x-rays. Flares which are not associated with x-ray signatures use the optical observations to determine the begin, max, and end times. Acronyms used to identify sweeps and optical phenomena include: II = Type II Sweep Frequency Event III = Type III Sweep IV = Type IV Sweep V = Type V Sweep Continuum = Continuum Radio Event Loop = Loop Prominence System, Spray = Limb Spray, Surge = Bright Limb Surge, EPL = Eruptive Prominence on the Limb. ** End of Daily Report ** /\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\ DAILY SUMMARY OF SOLAR GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY 06 OCTOBER, 1995 /\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\ (Based In-Part On SESC Observational Data) SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY INDICES FOR 06 OCTOBER, 1995 ----------------------------------------------------------- NOTE: The greater than 2 MeV electron fluence was very high today. The background x-ray flux was below class A1.0 levels. !!BEGIN!! (1.0) S.T.D. Solar Geophysical Data Broadcast for DAY 279, 10/06/95 10.7 FLUX=071.0 90-AVG=073 SSN=000 BKI=2545 3324 BAI=024 BGND-XRAY=A1.0 FLU1=2.5E+06 FLU10=1.6E+04 PKI=2445 3324 PAI=022 BOU-DEV=015,075,041,096,033,031,010,053 DEV-AVG=044 NT SWF=00:000 XRAY-MAX= A9.5 @ 2351UT XRAY-MIN= A1.0 @ 0336UT XRAY-AVG= A2.6 NEUTN-MAX= +002% @ 1005UT NEUTN-MIN= -003% @ 2025UT NEUTN-AVG= -0.1% PCA-MAX= +0.1DB @ 1640UT PCA-MIN= -0.2DB @ 1345UT PCA-AVG= -0.0DB BOUTF-MAX=55191NT @ 0351UT BOUTF-MIN=55163NT @ 0943UT BOUTF-AVG=55180NT GOES7-MAX=P:+000NT@ 0000UT GOES7-MIN=N:+000NT@ 0000UT G7-AVG=+064,+000,+000 GOES6-MAX=P:+000NT@ 0000UT GOES6-MIN=N:+000NT@ 0000UT G6-AVG=+000,+000,+000 FLUXFCST=STD:072,073,074;SESC:072,073,074 BAI/PAI-FCST=020,020,020/020,025,020 KFCST=2445 3332 3455 4323 27DAY-AP=015,010 27DAY-KP=3543 3212 2133 2233 WARNINGS= ALERTS= !!END-DATA!! NOTE: The Effective Sunspot Number for 05 OCT 95 is not available. The Full Kp Indices for 05 OCT 95 are not available. The 3-Hr Ap Indices for 05 OCT 95 are not available. Greater than 2 MeV Electron Fluence for 06 OCT is: 2.0E+09 DRAO 10.7 cm Solar Radio Flux at 18Z, 20Z, 22Z: 70.2, 71.0, 71.0 sfu. SYNOPSIS OF ACTIVITY -------------------- Solar activity remained very low and the visible disk remained spotless. Recent Yohkoh images continue to show a small region about to rotate over the southeast limb near SE15. Two small spotless reverse polarity regions appeared near N47W45 and N32E43. (STD: These two spotless regions had the correct new-cycle polarity. However, no spots have yet emerged within these regions and are therefore not listed in the region summary report below.) Solar activity forecast: solar activity should continue very low for the next three days. There is a slight possibility of a C-class flare from the new region near the southeast limb. STD: Solar WIND data received between 13:58 and 16:39 UTC indicated solar wind velocities between 518 and 597 km/sec. Densities were between 2 and 5 p/cm^3 and the Bz IMF component was mostly at small southerly values with intermittent minor northward excursions. Arch filaments were observed near N14W7 and N11W19. A small active filament spanning from N14W23 to N11W22 (about 3 degrees in extent) was observed between 12:11 and 16:00 UTC. Aside from the minor enhanced x-ray emissions on the southeast limb, there have been no other notable events on the visible disk. In general, the geomagnetic field ranged between quiet and minor storm levels. Some major storming was observed at isolated high latitude sites. Solar WIND data indicate a coronal hole source for this ongoing disturbance. Energetic electron fluxes were predominantly high. Geophysical activity forecast: the geomagnetic field should range between unsettled and minor storm levels for the next three days. Occasional major storming is possible at high latitudes. Energetic electron fluxes should remain elevated for at least the next five days. Event probabilities 07 oct-09 oct Class M 01/01/01 Class X 01/01/01 Proton 01/01/01 PCAF Green Geomagnetic activity probabilities 07 oct-09 oct A. Middle Latitudes Active 40/45/40 Minor Storm 15/20/15 Major-Severe Storm 01/05/05 B. High Latitudes Active 45/45/45 Minor Storm 20/30/25 Major-Severe Storm 05/10/10 HF propagation conditions were near-normal to slightly below-normal on middle to upper-middle latitude paths, normal on low and equatorial paths, and below-normal on high and polar latitude paths due to periods of enhanced geomagnetic and auroral activity. Periods of slightly degraded propagation is expected to continue through 09 October inclusive. General overall gradual improvements are expected thereafter. ENERGETIC ELECTRON FLUENCE 60-DAY HISTORY AT GREATER THAN 2 MEV ------!-----------------+--------!--------------------+----- 3.75E+09|......+............... ...... ... ......... .... .....|V. HIGH 2.16E+09|......+.V............. ...... ..V ..V...... .... .....|V. HIGH 1.25E+09|......+VV............. ...... ..V ..V...... .... ....V|V. HIGH 7.18E+08|......+VVH............ ...... ..V .HV...... .... ...HV|High 4.14E+08|......+VVH............ ...... HHV HHV...... .... ...HV|Moderate 2.38E+08|.M.MM.+VVH............ ...... HHV HHVM..... .... ...HV| 1.37E+08|.MMMM.+VVH............ ...... HHV HHVM..MM. .... ...HV| 7.92E+07|.MMMMMmVVH............ ...... HHV HHVMM.MM. .... ...HV| 4.56E+07|.MMMMMmVVH............ ...... HHV HHVMMMMM. .... ...HV|Normal 2.63E+07|.MMMMMmVVH.N..N...NN.. ...... HHV HHVMMMMM. .... .NNHV| 1.52E+07|.MMMMMmVVHNNNNN...NNN. ...... HHV HHVMMMMMN .... .NNHV| 8.74E+06|.MMMMMmVVHNNNNN...NNN. ...... HHV HHVMMMMMN NN.. .NNHV| 5.04E+06|.MMMMMmVVHNNNNN...NNNN NNN... HHV HHVMMMMMN NNN. .NNHV| 2.91E+06|.MMMMMmVVHNNNNNNNNNNNN NNN... HHV HHVMMMMMN NNNN NNNHV| 1.68E+06|NMMMMMmVVHNNNNNNNNNNNN NNNNNN HHV HHVMMMMMN NNNN NNNHV| 9.73E+05|NMMMMMmVVHNNNNNNNNNNNN NNNNNN HHV HHVMMMMMN NNNN NNNHV| ------!-----------------+--------!--------------------+----- Sep Oct NOTES: "V" = Very High Fluence, "H" = High Fluence, etc, " " = No Data, "!" = Solar rotational boundary periods from current date. Electron fluence is flux integrated over time in units of cm^-2 day^-1 sr^-1 as measured by GOES-8. Fluence values that are moderate or higher have been correlated with satellite anomalies. Sustained high to very high fluence has been correlated with serious malfunctions. COPIES OF JOINT USAF/NOAA SESC SOLAR GEOPHYSICAL REPORTS ======================================================== REGIONS WITH SUNSPOTS. LOCATIONS VALID AT 06/2400Z OCTOBER ---------------------------------------------------------- NMBR LOCATION LO AREA Z LL NN MAG TYPE NONE REGIONS DUE TO RETURN 07 OCTOBER TO 09 OCTOBER NMBR LAT LO NONE LISTING OF SOLAR ENERGETIC EVENTS FOR 06 OCTOBER, 1995 ------------------------------------------------------ BEGIN MAX END RGN LOC XRAY OP 245MHZ 10CM SWEEP SWF NO EVENTS OBSERVED POSSIBLE CORONAL MASS EJECTION EVENTS FOR 06 OCTOBER, 1995 ---------------------------------------------------------- BEGIN MAX END LOCATION TYPE SIZE DUR II IV NO EVENTS OBSERVED INFERRED CORONAL HOLES: LOCATIONS VALID AT 07/2400Z --------------------------------------------------- ISOLATED HOLES AND POLAR EXTENSIONS EAST SOUTH WEST NORTH CAR TYPE POL AREA OBSN 78 N19W31 N17W35 N31W44 N31W44 292 ISO POS 002 10830A SUMMARY OF FLARE EVENTS FOR THE PREVIOUS UTC DAY ------------------------------------------------ Date Begin Max End Xray Op Region Locn 2695 MHz 8800 MHz 15.4 GHz ------ ---- ---- ---- ---- -- ------ ------ --------- --------- --------- NO EVENTS OBSERVED. REGION FLARE STATISTICS FOR THE PREVIOUS UTC DAY ------------------------------------------------ C M X S 1 2 3 4 Total (%) -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- --- ------ Uncorrellated: 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 000 ( 0.0) Total Events: 000 optical and x-ray. EVENTS WITH SWEEPS AND/OR OPTICAL PHENOMENA FOR THE LAST UTC DAY ---------------------------------------------------------------- Date Begin Max End Xray Op Region Locn Sweeps/Optical Observations ------ ---- ---- ---- ---- -- ------ ------ --------------------------- NO EVENTS OBSERVED. NOTES: All times are in Universal Time (UT). Characters preceding begin, max, and end times are defined as: B = Before, U = Uncertain, A = After. All times associated with x-ray flares (ex. flares which produce associated x-ray bursts) refer to the begin, max, and end times of the x-rays. Flares which are not associated with x-ray signatures use the optical observations to determine the begin, max, and end times. Acronyms used to identify sweeps and optical phenomena include: II = Type II Sweep Frequency Event III = Type III Sweep IV = Type IV Sweep V = Type V Sweep Continuum = Continuum Radio Event Loop = Loop Prominence System, Spray = Limb Spray, Surge = Bright Limb Surge, EPL = Eruptive Prominence on the Limb. ** End of Daily Report ** /\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\ DAILY SUMMARY OF SOLAR GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY 07 OCTOBER, 1995 /\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\ (Based In-Part On SESC Observational Data) SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY INDICES FOR 07 OCTOBER, 1995 ----------------------------------------------------------- NOTE: The greater than 2 MeV electron fluence was very high today. !!BEGIN!! (1.0) S.T.D. Solar Geophysical Data Broadcast for DAY 280, 10/07/95 10.7 FLUX=072.9 90-AVG=072 SSN=011 BKI=4554 3312 BAI=023 BGND-XRAY=A1.8 FLU1=3.5E+06 FLU10=1.6E+04 PKI=4565 4222 PAI=028 BOU-DEV=055,100,117,063,033,025,008,014 DEV-AVG=051 NT SWF=00:000 XRAY-MAX= B2.9 @ 0345UT XRAY-MIN= A1.7 @ 0232UT XRAY-AVG= A3.6 NEUTN-MAX= +001% @ 2215UT NEUTN-MIN= -002% @ 2300UT NEUTN-AVG= -0.3% PCA-MAX= +0.1DB @ 1710UT PCA-MIN= -0.1DB @ 2215UT PCA-AVG= +0.0DB BOUTF-MAX=55210NT @ 0350UT BOUTF-MIN=55163NT @ 1043UT BOUTF-AVG=55178NT GOES7-MAX=P:+000NT@ 0000UT GOES7-MIN=N:+000NT@ 0000UT G7-AVG=+062,+000,+000 GOES6-MAX=P:+000NT@ 0000UT GOES6-MIN=N:+000NT@ 0000UT G6-AVG=+000,+000,+000 FLUXFCST=STD:074,075,076;SESC:074,075,076 BAI/PAI-FCST=020,020,015/030,025,015 KFCST=3465 3343 3454 3434 27DAY-AP=010,028 27DAY-KP=2133 2233 5555 3333 WARNINGS= ALERTS= !!END-DATA!! NOTE: The Effective Sunspot Number for 06 OCT 95 was 15.9. The Full Kp Indices for 07 OCT 95 are: 4o 5- 6o 5- 4- 2+ 2- 2o The 3-Hr Ap Indices for 07 OCT 95 are: 27 38 80 38 24 10 7 7 Greater than 2 MeV Electron Fluence for 07 OCT is: 1.5E+09 DRAO 10.7 cm Solar Radio Flux at 18Z, 20Z, 22Z: 72.7, 72.9, 73.6 sfu. SYNOPSIS OF ACTIVITY -------------------- Solar activity remained very low. A new region rotated over the east limb and was numbered as 7910 (S09E75). This region consists of a moderate size H-class spot with a broad but scattered plage field. Several small B-class x-ray bursts were observed with Region 7910 the likely source. Solar activity forecast: solar activity should continue at a very low level. There is a slight chance for a C-class flare from Region 7910. STD: Solar WIND data between 14:11 and 16:39 UTC indicated a solar wind velocity that ranged from 565 to 639 km/sec. Densities continued low in the 2 to 3 p/cm^3 range and the Bz IMF component experienced only small north/south excursions. The geomagnetic field varied greatly between quiet and major storm levels. Major storming was observed (mainly at high latitudes) during the middle of the reporting period. Solar WIND data continue to show a high speed low density stream in the earth's vicinity. Energetic electron fluxes were predominantly high. Geophysical activity forecast: the geomagnetic field should be at unsettled to minor storm levels for 08-09 Oct. Isolated periods of major storming at high latitudes are possible during that time. Unsettled to slightly active conditions are forecast for 10 Oct as the current disturbance begins to subside. STD: At least two sites during the last 24 hours reported a period of severe geomagnetic storming (K-index of 7). Glenlea reported a magnetic deviation of 592 nT between 06:00 and 09:00 UTC, while Meanook reported the largest deviation of 874 nT during the same time period. Event probabilities 08 oct-10 oct Class M 01/01/01 Class X 01/01/01 Proton 01/01/01 PCAF Green Geomagnetic activity probabilities 08 oct-10 oct A. Middle Latitudes Active 40/40/35 Minor Storm 20/20/05 Major-Severe Storm 05/05/01 B. High Latitudes Active 40/45/40 Minor Storm 40/25/10 Major-Severe Storm 10/10/05 HF propagation conditions were near-normal to slightly below-normal from the equatorial to the middle latitudes. The upper-middle to polar latitude paths were predominantly below-normal with MUF depressions of as much as 35 percent, fading, absorption, multipathing and increased noise (particularly on east-west transauroral circuits). Similar periods of degraded propagation are expected through 09 October. Gradual improvements are expected thereafter. ENERGETIC ELECTRON FLUENCE 60-DAY HISTORY AT GREATER THAN 2 MEV ------!----------------+---------!-------------------+------ 3.75E+09|......+.............. ...... ... ......... .... ......|V. HIGH 2.16E+09|......+V............. ...... ..V ..V...... .... ......|V. HIGH 1.25E+09|......vV............. ...... ..V ..V...... .... ....VV|V. HIGH 7.18E+08|......vVH............ ...... ..V .HV...... .... ...HVV|High 4.14E+08|......vVH............ ...... HHV HHV...... .... ...HVV|Moderate 2.38E+08|M.MM..vVH............ ...... HHV HHVM..... .... ...HVV| 1.37E+08|MMMM..vVH............ ...... HHV HHVM..MM. .... ...HVV| 7.92E+07|MMMMMMvVH............ ...... HHV HHVMM.MM. .... ...HVV| 4.56E+07|MMMMMMvVH............ ...... HHV HHVMMMMM. .... ...HVV|Normal 2.63E+07|MMMMMMvVH.N..N...NN.. ...... HHV HHVMMMMM. .... .NNHVV| 1.52E+07|MMMMMMvVHNNNNN...NNN. ...... HHV HHVMMMMMN .... .NNHVV| 8.74E+06|MMMMMMvVHNNNNN...NNN. ...... HHV HHVMMMMMN NN.. .NNHVV| 5.04E+06|MMMMMMvVHNNNNN...NNNN NNN... HHV HHVMMMMMN NNN. .NNHVV| 2.91E+06|MMMMMMvVHNNNNNNNNNNNN NNN... HHV HHVMMMMMN NNNN NNNHVV| 1.68E+06|MMMMMMvVHNNNNNNNNNNNN NNNNNN HHV HHVMMMMMN NNNN NNNHVV| 9.73E+05|MMMMMMvVHNNNNNNNNNNNN NNNNNN HHV HHVMMMMMN NNNN NNNHVV| ------!----------------+---------!-------------------+------ Sep Oct NOTES: "V" = Very High Fluence, "H" = High Fluence, etc, " " = No Data, "!" = Solar rotational boundary periods from current date. Electron fluence is flux integrated over time in units of cm^-2 day^-1 sr^-1 as measured by GOES-8. Fluence values that are moderate or higher have been correlated with satellite anomalies. Sustained high to very high fluence has been correlated with serious malfunctions. COPIES OF JOINT USAF/NOAA SESC SOLAR GEOPHYSICAL REPORTS ======================================================== REGIONS WITH SUNSPOTS. LOCATIONS VALID AT 07/2400Z OCTOBER ---------------------------------------------------------- NMBR LOCATION LO AREA Z LL NN MAG TYPE 7910 S09E74 178 0120 HSX 02 001 ALPHA REGIONS DUE TO RETURN 08 OCTOBER TO 10 OCTOBER NMBR LAT LO NONE LISTING OF SOLAR ENERGETIC EVENTS FOR 07 OCTOBER, 1995 ------------------------------------------------------ BEGIN MAX END RGN LOC XRAY OP 245MHZ 10CM SWEEP SWF NO EVENTS OBSERVED POSSIBLE CORONAL MASS EJECTION EVENTS FOR 07 OCTOBER, 1995 ---------------------------------------------------------- BEGIN MAX END LOCATION TYPE SIZE DUR II IV NO EVENTS OBSERVED INFERRED CORONAL HOLES: LOCATIONS VALID AT 07/2400Z --------------------------------------------------- ISOLATED HOLES AND POLAR EXTENSIONS EAST SOUTH WEST NORTH CAR TYPE POL AREA OBSN 78 N19W31 N17W35 N31W44 N31W44 292 ISO POS 002 10830A SUMMARY OF FLARE EVENTS FOR THE PREVIOUS UTC DAY ------------------------------------------------ Date Begin Max End Xray Op Region Locn 2695 MHz 8800 MHz 15.4 GHz ------ ---- ---- ---- ---- -- ------ ------ --------- --------- --------- NO EVENTS OBSERVED. REGION FLARE STATISTICS FOR THE PREVIOUS UTC DAY ------------------------------------------------ C M X S 1 2 3 4 Total (%) -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- --- ------ Uncorrellated: 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 000 ( 0.0) Total Events: 000 optical and x-ray. EVENTS WITH SWEEPS AND/OR OPTICAL PHENOMENA FOR THE LAST UTC DAY ---------------------------------------------------------------- Date Begin Max End Xray Op Region Locn Sweeps/Optical Observations ------ ---- ---- ---- ---- -- ------ ------ --------------------------- NO EVENTS OBSERVED. NOTES: All times are in Universal Time (UT). Characters preceding begin, max, and end times are defined as: B = Before, U = Uncertain, A = After. All times associated with x-ray flares (ex. flares which produce associated x-ray bursts) refer to the begin, max, and end times of the x-rays. Flares which are not associated with x-ray signatures use the optical observations to determine the begin, max, and end times. Acronyms used to identify sweeps and optical phenomena include: II = Type II Sweep Frequency Event III = Type III Sweep IV = Type IV Sweep V = Type V Sweep Continuum = Continuum Radio Event Loop = Loop Prominence System, Spray = Limb Spray, Surge = Bright Limb Surge, EPL = Eruptive Prominence on the Limb. ** End of Daily Report ** /\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\ DAILY SUMMARY OF SOLAR GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY 08 OCTOBER, 1995 /\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\ (Based In-Part On SESC Observational Data) SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY INDICES FOR 08 OCTOBER, 1995 ----------------------------------------------------------- NOTE: The greater than 2 MeV electron fluence was very high today. !!BEGIN!! (1.0) S.T.D. Solar Geophysical Data Broadcast for DAY 281, 10/08/95 10.7 FLUX=074.3 90-AVG=072 SSN=025 BKI=3335 4331 BAI=019 BGND-XRAY=A3.6 FLU1=1.6E+06 FLU10=1.6E+04 PKI=3335 5342 PAI=021 BOU-DEV=035,027,022,081,046,033,033,006 DEV-AVG=035 NT SWF=00:000 XRAY-MAX= B1.1 @ 1206UT XRAY-MIN= A1.0 @ 0425UT XRAY-AVG= A4.4 NEUTN-MAX= +002% @ 2350UT NEUTN-MIN= -002% @ 2055UT NEUTN-AVG= -0.0% PCA-MAX= +0.2DB @ 1405UT PCA-MIN= -0.3DB @ 1435UT PCA-AVG= +0.0DB BOUTF-MAX=55194NT @ 0349UT BOUTF-MIN=55149NT @ 1712UT BOUTF-AVG=55176NT GOES7-MAX=P:+000NT@ 0000UT GOES7-MIN=N:+000NT@ 0000UT G7-AVG=+061,+000,+000 GOES6-MAX=P:+000NT@ 0000UT GOES6-MIN=N:+000NT@ 0000UT G6-AVG=+000,+000,+000 FLUXFCST=STD:075,076,077;SESC:075,076,077 BAI/PAI-FCST=020,015,010/025,015,015 KFCST=3454 3434 3243 2333 27DAY-AP=028,012 27DAY-KP=5555 3333 3423 2234 WARNINGS= ALERTS= !!END-DATA!! NOTE: The Effective Sunspot Number for 07 OCT 95 was 10.0. The Full Kp Indices for 08 OCT 95 are: 3+ 3- 3o 5- 5- 3+ 4- 2- The 3-Hr Ap Indices for 08 OCT 95 are: 20 14 14 43 42 18 24 6 Greater than 2 MeV Electron Fluence for 08 OCT is: 1.3E+09 DRAO 10.7 cm Solar Radio Flux at 18Z, 20Z, 22Z: 74.3, 74.3, 75.5 sfu. SYNOPSIS OF ACTIVITY -------------------- Solar activity continued at a very low level. Region 7910 (S08E64) showed itself as a moderate size C-class sunspot group with a bipolar magnetic configuration. A small B-class group emerged near N07E08 and was numbered as Region 7911. Solar activity forecast: solar activity should continue at a very low level. There remains a possibility of a C-class flare from Region 7910. The geomagnetic field again was quite variable. In general, quiet to minor storm conditions were observed. Some high latitude sites experienced severe storming between 08/0900-1500Z. Solar WIND data continue to point to a coronal hole as the source of this disturbance. Energetic electron fluxes were at mostly high levels. Geophysical activity forecast: the geomagnetic field should be at unsettled to minor storm levels on 09 Oct. Isolated major storming is possible during that time at high latitudes. Unsettled to active conditions are forecast for 10-11 Oct as the recent disturbance slowly subsides. Isolated minor storm periods are possible at high latitudes during those two days. Event probabilities 09 oct-11 oct Class M 01/01/01 Class X 01/01/01 Proton 01/01/01 PCAF Green Geomagnetic activity probabilities 09 oct-11 oct A. Middle Latitudes Active 45/30/15 Minor Storm 20/15/05 Major-Severe Storm 05/05/01 B. High Latitudes Active 50/40/25 Minor Storm 15/10/15 Major-Severe Storm 15/05/05 HF propagation conditions were near-normal to slightly below-normal from the equatorial to middle latitudes. Upper-middle to polar latitude paths (particularly transauroral circuits) experienced periods of below-normal propagation, primarily prior to 15:00 UTC. By the end of the UTC day, daytime transpolar and transauroral circuits had improved to slightly below-normal levels while similar night-time circuits continued to be degraded. Similar, although gradually improving, propagation is expected through 11 October inclusive. ENERGETIC ELECTRON FLUENCE 60-DAY HISTORY AT GREATER THAN 2 MEV ------!---------------+----------!------------------+------- 3.75E+09|......+............. ...... ... +........ .... .......|V. HIGH 2.16E+09|......v............. ...... ..V +.V...... .... .......|V. HIGH 1.25E+09|.....Vv............. ...... ..V +.V...... .... ....VVV|V. HIGH 7.18E+08|.....VvH............ ...... ..V +HV...... .... ...HVVV|High 4.14E+08|.....VvH............ ...... HHV hHV...... .... ...HVVV|Moderate 2.38E+08|.MM..VvH............ ...... HHV hHVM..... .... ...HVVV| 1.37E+08|MMM..VvH............ ...... HHV hHVM..MM. .... ...HVVV| 7.92E+07|MMMMMVvH............ ...... HHV hHVMM.MM. .... ...HVVV| 4.56E+07|MMMMMVvH............ ...... HHV hHVMMMMM. .... ...HVVV|Normal 2.63E+07|MMMMMVvH.N..N...NN.. ...... HHV hHVMMMMM. .... .NNHVVV| 1.52E+07|MMMMMVvHNNNNN...NNN. ...... HHV hHVMMMMMN .... .NNHVVV| 8.74E+06|MMMMMVvHNNNNN...NNN. ...... HHV hHVMMMMMN NN.. .NNHVVV| 5.04E+06|MMMMMVvHNNNNN...NNNN NNN... HHV hHVMMMMMN NNN. .NNHVVV| 2.91E+06|MMMMMVvHNNNNNNNNNNNN NNN... HHV hHVMMMMMN NNNN NNNHVVV| 1.68E+06|MMMMMVvHNNNNNNNNNNNN NNNNNN HHV hHVMMMMMN NNNN NNNHVVV| 9.73E+05|MMMMMVvHNNNNNNNNNNNN NNNNNN HHV hHVMMMMMN NNNN NNNHVVV| ------!---------------+----------!------------------+------- Sep Oct NOTES: "V" = Very High Fluence, "H" = High Fluence, etc, " " = No Data, "!" = Solar rotational boundary periods from current date. Electron fluence is flux integrated over time in units of cm^-2 day^-1 sr^-1 as measured by GOES-8. Fluence values that are moderate or higher have been correlated with satellite anomalies. Sustained high to very high fluence has been correlated with serious malfunctions. COPIES OF JOINT USAF/NOAA SESC SOLAR GEOPHYSICAL REPORTS ======================================================== REGIONS WITH SUNSPOTS. LOCATIONS VALID AT 08/2400Z OCTOBER ---------------------------------------------------------- NMBR LOCATION LO AREA Z LL NN MAG TYPE 7910 S08E63 176 0180 CKO 07 003 BETA 7911 N07E07 232 0010 BXO 03 002 BETA REGIONS DUE TO RETURN 09 OCTOBER TO 11 OCTOBER NMBR LAT LO NONE LISTING OF SOLAR ENERGETIC EVENTS FOR 08 OCTOBER, 1995 ------------------------------------------------------ BEGIN MAX END RGN LOC XRAY OP 245MHZ 10CM SWEEP SWF NO EVENTS OBSERVED POSSIBLE CORONAL MASS EJECTION EVENTS FOR 08 OCTOBER, 1995 ---------------------------------------------------------- BEGIN MAX END LOCATION TYPE SIZE DUR II IV NO EVENTS OBSERVED INFERRED CORONAL HOLES: LOCATIONS VALID AT 08/2400Z --------------------------------------------------- ISOLATED HOLES AND POLAR EXTENSIONS EAST SOUTH WEST NORTH CAR TYPE POL AREA OBSN 78 N34W44 N12W53 N34W57 N36W49 292 ISO POS 006 10830A 79 S15W49 S21W54 S14W62 S13W54 297 ISO POS 002 10830A SUMMARY OF FLARE EVENTS FOR THE PREVIOUS UTC DAY ------------------------------------------------ Date Begin Max End Xray Op Region Locn 2695 MHz 8800 MHz 15.4 GHz ------ ---- ---- ---- ---- -- ------ ------ --------- --------- --------- 07 Oct: 0102 0106 0111 B1.2 0340 0348 0355 B2.9 0832 0836 0841 B1.2 REGION FLARE STATISTICS FOR THE PREVIOUS UTC DAY ------------------------------------------------ C M X S 1 2 3 4 Total (%) -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- --- ------ Uncorrellated: 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 003 (100.0) Total Events: 003 optical and x-ray. EVENTS WITH SWEEPS AND/OR OPTICAL PHENOMENA FOR THE LAST UTC DAY ---------------------------------------------------------------- Date Begin Max End Xray Op Region Locn Sweeps/Optical Observations ------ ---- ---- ---- ---- -- ------ ------ --------------------------- 07 Oct: 0102 0106 0111 B1.2 III 0340 0348 0355 B2.9 III 0832 0836 0841 B1.2 III NOTES: All times are in Universal Time (UT). Characters preceding begin, max, and end times are defined as: B = Before, U = Uncertain, A = After. All times associated with x-ray flares (ex. flares which produce associated x-ray bursts) refer to the begin, max, and end times of the x-rays. Flares which are not associated with x-ray signatures use the optical observations to determine the begin, max, and end times. Acronyms used to identify sweeps and optical phenomena include: II = Type II Sweep Frequency Event III = Type III Sweep IV = Type IV Sweep V = Type V Sweep Continuum = Continuum Radio Event Loop = Loop Prominence System, Spray = Limb Spray, Surge = Bright Limb Surge, EPL = Eruptive Prominence on the Limb. ** End of Daily Report ** /\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\ DAILY SUMMARY OF SOLAR GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY 09 OCTOBER, 1995 /\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\ (Based In-Part On SESC Observational Data) SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY INDICES FOR 09 OCTOBER, 1995 ----------------------------------------------------------- NOTE: The greater than 2 MeV electron fluence was very high today. !!BEGIN!! (1.0) S.T.D. Solar Geophysical Data Broadcast for DAY 282, 10/09/95 10.7 FLUX=076.1 90-AVG=072 SSN=031 BKI=1355 3323 BAI=020 BGND-XRAY=A6.2 FLU1=1.1E+06 FLU10=1.7E+04 PKI=1356 3433 PAI=026 BOU-DEV=007,027,089,116,033,038,010,035 DEV-AVG=044 NT SWF=00:000 XRAY-MAX= B3.9 @ 2351UT XRAY-MIN= A2.6 @ 1222UT XRAY-AVG= A4.5 NEUTN-MAX= +002% @ 0940UT NEUTN-MIN= -002% @ 1915UT NEUTN-AVG= +0.0% PCA-MAX= +0.1DB @ 1610UT PCA-MIN= -0.2DB @ 1315UT PCA-AVG= -0.0DB BOUTF-MAX=55191NT @ 2249UT BOUTF-MIN=55136NT @ 1018UT BOUTF-AVG=55173NT GOES7-MAX=P:+000NT@ 0000UT GOES7-MIN=N:+000NT@ 0000UT G7-AVG=+059,+000,+000 GOES6-MAX=P:+000NT@ 0000UT GOES6-MIN=N:+000NT@ 0000UT G6-AVG=+000,+000,+000 FLUXFCST=STD:077,078,078;SESC:077,078,078 BAI/PAI-FCST=015,012,010/018,015,010 KFCST=3145 3233 2343 2333 27DAY-AP=012,019 27DAY-KP=3423 2234 3445 3223 WARNINGS= ALERTS= !!END-DATA!! NOTE: The Effective Sunspot Number for 08 OCT 95 was 12.0. The Full Kp Indices for 09 OCT 95 are: 1+ 3o 5+ 6- 3o 4- 3- 3+ The 3-Hr Ap Indices for 09 OCT 95 are: 5 16 53 70 15 21 12 18 Greater than 2 MeV Electron Fluence for 09 OCT is: 1.1E+09 DRAO 10.7 cm Solar Radio Flux at 18Z, 20Z, 22Z: 76.3, 76.1, 76.7 sfu. SYNOPSIS OF ACTIVITY -------------------- Solar activity was very low. Solar Region 7910 (S09E47) began to fragment slightly but has not changed significantly from yesterday. Region 7911 (N07W06) grew slightly. Burst activity was minimal. A small filament near N48W05 faded between about 09/0929-1014Z. Solar activity forecast: solar activity should continue at very low levels. Region 7910 retains the capability of producing an isolated C-class flare. STD: No solar WIND data was received during the period. Two filaments disappeared during the last 24 hours. The first (noted above) measured about 10 degrees in extent. The second measured 5 degrees and was located near N06E02 before it disappeared between 08:20 and 09:20 UTC. The geomagnetic field ranged between quiet and major storm levels. The most disturbed period was 09/0600-1200Z. Some high latitude stations experienced severe storming during that period. Energetic electron fluxes at geosynchronous were generally high. Geophysical activity forecast: the geomagnetic field is forecast to be predominantly quiet to active for 10-11 Oct. Periods of minor storming are possible during that time. Unsettled conditions are expected on 12 Oct. Event probabilities 10 oct-12 oct Class M 01/01/01 Class X 01/01/01 Proton 01/01/01 PCAF Green Geomagnetic activity probabilities 10 oct-12 oct A. Middle Latitudes Active 30/25/15 Minor Storm 10/15/05 Major-Severe Storm 05/05/01 B. High Latitudes Active 35/25/15 Minor Storm 20/15/10 Major-Severe Storm 05/05/05 HF propagation conditions were near-normal to slightly below-normal over the high and polar latitude night sectors until after approximately 12:00 UTC. Between 12:00 UTC and 18:00 UTC conditions degraded to very poor levels over the daylit sectors and became frequently useless over night-sectors. Night-sector middle latitude paths between this same time interval also became degraded to poor levels. These conditions then began improving by the end of the UTC day and middle latitude paths had returned to slightly below-normal levels. High and polar latitude paths continued to be below-normal with poor to very poor propagation by the end of the UTC day. Conditions should begin returning to near-normal by 12 or 13 October over all regions. We are now nearing the end of this disturbance. ENERGETIC ELECTRON FLUENCE 60-DAY HISTORY AT GREATER THAN 2 MEV ------!--------------+-----------!-----------------+-------- 3.75E+09|......+............ ...... ... .+....... .... ........|V. HIGH 2.16E+09|.....V+............ ...... ..V .+V...... .... ........|V. HIGH 1.25E+09|....VV+............ ...... ..V .+V...... .... ....VVV.|V. HIGH 7.18E+08|....VVh............ ...... ..V .hV...... .... ...HVVVV|High 4.14E+08|....VVh............ ...... HHV HhV...... .... ...HVVVV|Moderate 2.38E+08|MM..VVh............ ...... HHV HhVM..... .... ...HVVVV| 1.37E+08|MM..VVh............ ...... HHV HhVM..MM. .... ...HVVVV| 7.92E+07|MMMMVVh............ ...... HHV HhVMM.MM. .... ...HVVVV| 4.56E+07|MMMMVVh............ ...... HHV HhVMMMMM. .... ...HVVVV|Normal 2.63E+07|MMMMVVh.N..N...NN.. ...... HHV HhVMMMMM. .... .NNHVVVV| 1.52E+07|MMMMVVhNNNNN...NNN. ...... HHV HhVMMMMMN .... .NNHVVVV| 8.74E+06|MMMMVVhNNNNN...NNN. ...... HHV HhVMMMMMN NN.. .NNHVVVV| 5.04E+06|MMMMVVhNNNNN...NNNN NNN... HHV HhVMMMMMN NNN. .NNHVVVV| 2.91E+06|MMMMVVhNNNNNNNNNNNN NNN... HHV HhVMMMMMN NNNN NNNHVVVV| 1.68E+06|MMMMVVhNNNNNNNNNNNN NNNNNN HHV HhVMMMMMN NNNN NNNHVVVV| 9.73E+05|MMMMVVhNNNNNNNNNNNN NNNNNN HHV HhVMMMMMN NNNN NNNHVVVV| ------!--------------+-----------!-----------------+-------- Sep Oct NOTES: "V" = Very High Fluence, "H" = High Fluence, etc, " " = No Data, "!" = Solar rotational boundary periods from current date. Electron fluence is flux integrated over time in units of cm^-2 day^-1 sr^-1 as measured by GOES-8. Fluence values that are moderate or higher have been correlated with satellite anomalies. Sustained high to very high fluence has been correlated with serious malfunctions. COPIES OF JOINT USAF/NOAA SESC SOLAR GEOPHYSICAL REPORTS ======================================================== REGIONS WITH SUNSPOTS. LOCATIONS VALID AT 09/2400Z OCTOBER ---------------------------------------------------------- NMBR LOCATION LO AREA Z LL NN MAG TYPE 7910 S09E47 179 0170 CAO 05 005 BETA 7911 N07W07 233 0020 CRO 04 006 BETA REGIONS DUE TO RETURN 10 OCTOBER TO 12 OCTOBER NMBR LAT LO NONE LISTING OF SOLAR ENERGETIC EVENTS FOR 09 OCTOBER, 1995 ------------------------------------------------------ BEGIN MAX END RGN LOC XRAY OP 245MHZ 10CM SWEEP SWF NO EVENTS OBSERVED POSSIBLE CORONAL MASS EJECTION EVENTS FOR 09 OCTOBER, 1995 ---------------------------------------------------------- BEGIN MAX END LOCATION TYPE SIZE DUR II IV 09/B0929 B1014 N48W05 DSF 09/B0820 B0920 N05E02 DSF INFERRED CORONAL HOLES: LOCATIONS VALID AT 09/2400Z --------------------------------------------------- ISOLATED HOLES AND POLAR EXTENSIONS EAST SOUTH WEST NORTH CAR TYPE POL AREA OBSN NO DATA SUMMARY OF FLARE EVENTS FOR THE PREVIOUS UTC DAY ------------------------------------------------ Date Begin Max End Xray Op Region Locn 2695 MHz 8800 MHz 15.4 GHz ------ ---- ---- ---- ---- -- ------ ------ --------- --------- --------- 07 Oct: 0102 0106 0111 B1.2 0340 0348 0355 B2.9 0832 0836 0841 B1.2 08 Oct: 1136 1207 1213 B1.1 1321 1326 1339 B1.1 REGION FLARE STATISTICS FOR THE PREVIOUS UTC DAY ------------------------------------------------ C M X S 1 2 3 4 Total (%) -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- --- ------ Uncorrellated: 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 005 (100.0) Total Events: 005 optical and x-ray. EVENTS WITH SWEEPS AND/OR OPTICAL PHENOMENA FOR THE LAST UTC DAY ---------------------------------------------------------------- Date Begin Max End Xray Op Region Locn Sweeps/Optical Observations ------ ---- ---- ---- ---- -- ------ ------ --------------------------- 07 Oct: 0102 0106 0111 B1.2 III 0340 0348 0355 B2.9 III 0832 0836 0841 B1.2 III NOTES: All times are in Universal Time (UT). Characters preceding begin, max, and end times are defined as: B = Before, U = Uncertain, A = After. All times associated with x-ray flares (ex. flares which produce associated x-ray bursts) refer to the begin, max, and end times of the x-rays. Flares which are not associated with x-ray signatures use the optical observations to determine the begin, max, and end times. Acronyms used to identify sweeps and optical phenomena include: II = Type II Sweep Frequency Event III = Type III Sweep IV = Type IV Sweep V = Type V Sweep Continuum = Continuum Radio Event Loop = Loop Prominence System, Spray = Limb Spray, Surge = Bright Limb Surge, EPL = Eruptive Prominence on the Limb. ** End of Daily Report ** /\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\ DAILY SUMMARY OF SOLAR GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY 10 OCTOBER, 1995 /\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\ (Based In-Part On SESC Observational Data) SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY INDICES FOR 10 OCTOBER, 1995 ----------------------------------------------------------- NOTE: The greater than 2 MeV electron fluence was high today. !!BEGIN!! (1.0) S.T.D. Solar Geophysical Data Broadcast for DAY 283, 10/10/95 10.7 FLUX=082.3 90-AVG=073 SSN=049 BKI=3441 2221 BAI=012 BGND-XRAY=A3.5 FLU1=5.4E+05 FLU10=1.6E+04 PKI=3442 3221 PAI=012 BOU-DEV=029,047,058,009,017,440,012,006 DEV-AVG=077 NT SWF=00:000 XRAY-MAX= C1.3 @ 0559UT XRAY-MIN= A2.5 @ 0436UT XRAY-AVG= B1.3 NEUTN-MAX= +002% @ 2330UT NEUTN-MIN= -002% @ 1425UT NEUTN-AVG= +0.1% PCA-MAX= +0.1DB @ 1615UT PCA-MIN= -0.2DB @ 1345UT PCA-AVG= +0.0DB BOUTF-MAX=55193NT @ 0359UT BOUTF-MIN=55172NT @ 0726UT BOUTF-AVG=55184NT GOES7-MAX=P:+000NT@ 0000UT GOES7-MIN=N:+000NT@ 0000UT G7-AVG=+057,+000,+000 GOES6-MAX=P:+000NT@ 0000UT GOES6-MIN=N:+000NT@ 0000UT G6-AVG=+000,+000,+000 FLUXFCST=STD:083,084,085;SESC:083,084,085 BAI/PAI-FCST=010,010,010/012,010,015 KFCST=1113 3111 1113 3111 27DAY-AP=019,010 27DAY-KP=3445 3223 3332 2223 WARNINGS= ALERTS= !!END-DATA!! NOTE: The Effective Sunspot Number for 09 OCT 95 was 10.0. The Full Kp Indices for 10 OCT 95 are: 3- 4- 4o 2+ 3- 2o 2o 1o The 3-Hr Ap Indices for 10 OCT 95 are: 11 21 28 10 11 8 8 4 Greater than 2 MeV Electron Fluence for 10 OCT is: 7.2E+08 DRAO 10.7 cm Solar Radio Flux at 18Z, 20Z, 22Z: 80.8, 82.3, 85.2 sfu. SYNOPSIS OF ACTIVITY -------------------- Solar activity was low. Two C-class flares occurred during the day at 0558Z (C1 and optically uncorrelated) and at 1640Z (C2/SF from new Region 7912 at S11E71). New Region 7912 was the most active Region on the disk with frequent surge activity and brightenings. The group appears to be small in white light (50 millionths), but this may be due to foreshortening effects. Region 7910 (S09E33) is the largest region on disk but was not observed to produce any flare activity. Solar activity forecast: solar activity is expected to be low. STD: Only the solar WIND MFI data was received today from between 17:13 UTC and 20:43 UTC. The Bz IMF component was northwards from between +3 and +6 nT. The IMF was directed away from the sun as well at phi angles between 150 and 210 degrees. The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Quiet to unsettled levels began the period. Activity increased to unsettled to active between 0500-0700Z. Since then the geomagnetic field has been mostly quiet. The greater than 2 MeV electron fluxes have been at high levels throughout the day. Geophysical activity forecast: the geomagnetic field is expected to be predominantly unsettled for the next three days. Event probabilities 11 oct-13 oct Class M 01/01/01 Class X 01/01/01 Proton 01/01/01 PCAF Green Geomagnetic activity probabilities 11 oct-13 oct A. Middle Latitudes Active 15/15/15 Minor Storm 05/05/05 Major-Severe Storm 01/01/01 B. High Latitudes Active 15/15/15 Minor Storm 05/05/05 Major-Severe Storm 01/01/01 HF propagation conditions were normal over the low and central middle latitude paths. Upper middle latitude paths were below-normal during the local night sectors but returned to near-normal on daylit paths. Conditions over all regions improved to near-normal or slightl below-normal by the end of the UTC day. The disturbance looks like it has finally passed the Earth. Conditions should return to normal on all paths for 11 October and should remain near-normal through 13 October. ENERGETIC ELECTRON FLUENCE 60-DAY HISTORY AT GREATER THAN 2 MEV ------!-------------+------------!----------------+--------- 3.75E+09|......+........... ...... ... ..+...... .... .........|V. HIGH 2.16E+09|....V.+........... ...... ..V ..v...... .... .........|V. HIGH 1.25E+09|...VV.+........... ...... ..V ..v...... .... ....VVV..|V. HIGH 7.18E+08|...VVH+........... ...... ..V .Hv...... .... ...HVVVVH|High 4.14E+08|...VVH+........... ...... HHV HHv...... .... ...HVVVVH|Moderate 2.38E+08|M..VVH+........... ...... HHV HHvM..... .... ...HVVVVH| 1.37E+08|M..VVH+........... ...... HHV HHvM..MM. .... ...HVVVVH| 7.92E+07|MMMVVH+........... ...... HHV HHvMM.MM. .... ...HVVVVH| 4.56E+07|MMMVVH+........... ...... HHV HHvMMMMM. .... ...HVVVVH|Normal 2.63E+07|MMMVVH+N..N...NN.. ...... HHV HHvMMMMM. .... .NNHVVVVH| 1.52E+07|MMMVVHnNNNN...NNN. ...... HHV HHvMMMMMN .... .NNHVVVVH| 8.74E+06|MMMVVHnNNNN...NNN. ...... HHV HHvMMMMMN NN.. .NNHVVVVH| 5.04E+06|MMMVVHnNNNN...NNNN NNN... HHV HHvMMMMMN NNN. .NNHVVVVH| 2.91E+06|MMMVVHnNNNNNNNNNNN NNN... HHV HHvMMMMMN NNNN NNNHVVVVH| 1.68E+06|MMMVVHnNNNNNNNNNNN NNNNNN HHV HHvMMMMMN NNNN NNNHVVVVH| 9.73E+05|MMMVVHnNNNNNNNNNNN NNNNNN HHV HHvMMMMMN NNNN NNNHVVVVH| ------!-------------+------------!----------------+--------- Sep Oct NOTES: "V" = Very High Fluence, "H" = High Fluence, etc, " " = No Data, "!" = Solar rotational boundary periods from current date. Electron fluence is flux integrated over time in units of cm^-2 day^-1 sr^-1 as measured by GOES-8. Fluence values that are moderate or higher have been correlated with satellite anomalies. Sustained high to very high fluence has been correlated with serious malfunctions. COPIES OF JOINT USAF/NOAA SESC SOLAR GEOPHYSICAL REPORTS ======================================================== REGIONS WITH SUNSPOTS. LOCATIONS VALID AT 10/2400Z OCTOBER ---------------------------------------------------------- NMBR LOCATION LO AREA Z LL NN MAG TYPE 7910 S09E33 180 0150 HAX 03 005 ALPHA 7911 N06W21 234 0040 CSO 05 010 BETA 7912 S11E71 142 0050 CAO 06 004 BETA REGIONS DUE TO RETURN 11 OCTOBER TO 13 OCTOBER NMBR LAT LO NONE LISTING OF SOLAR ENERGETIC EVENTS FOR 10 OCTOBER, 1995 ------------------------------------------------------ BEGIN MAX END RGN LOC XRAY OP 245MHZ 10CM SWEEP NONE POSSIBLE CORONAL MASS EJECTION EVENTS FOR 10 OCTOBER, 1995 ---------------------------------------------------------- BEGIN MAX END LOCATION TYPE SIZE DUR II IV NO EVENTS OBSERVED INFERRED CORONAL HOLES. LOCATIONS VALID AT 10/2400Z --------------------------------------------------- ISOLATED HOLES AND POLAR EXTENSIONS EAST SOUTH WEST NORTH CAR TYPE POL AREA OBSN NONE VISIBLE SUMMARY OF FLARE EVENTS FOR THE PREVIOUS UTC DAY ------------------------------------------------ Date Begin Max End Xray Op Region Locn 2695 MHz 8800 MHz 15.4 GHz ------ ---- ---- ---- ---- -- ------ ------ --------- --------- --------- 08 Oct: 1136 1207 1213 B1.1 1321 1326 1339 B1.1 09 Oct: 2341 2350 2357 B3.9 REGION FLARE STATISTICS FOR THE PREVIOUS UTC DAY ------------------------------------------------ C M X S 1 2 3 4 Total (%) -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- --- ------ Uncorrellated: 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 003 (100.0) Total Events: 003 optical and x-ray. EVENTS WITH SWEEPS AND/OR OPTICAL PHENOMENA FOR THE LAST UTC DAY ---------------------------------------------------------------- Date Begin Max End Xray Op Region Locn Sweeps/Optical Observations ------ ---- ---- ---- ---- -- ------ ------ --------------------------- NO EVENTS OBSERVED. NOTES: All times are in Universal Time (UT). Characters preceding begin, max, and end times are defined as: B = Before, U = Uncertain, A = After. All times associated with x-ray flares (ex. flares which produce associated x-ray bursts) refer to the begin, max, and end times of the x-rays. Flares which are not associated with x-ray signatures use the optical observations to determine the begin, max, and end times. Acronyms used to identify sweeps and optical phenomena include: II = Type II Sweep Frequency Event III = Type III Sweep IV = Type IV Sweep V = Type V Sweep Continuum = Continuum Radio Event Loop = Loop Prominence System, Spray = Limb Spray, Surge = Bright Limb Surge, EPL = Eruptive Prominence on the Limb. ** End of Daily Report ** /\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\ DAILY SUMMARY OF SOLAR GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY 11 OCTOBER, 1995 /\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\ (Based In-Part On SESC Observational Data) SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY INDICES FOR 11 OCTOBER, 1995 ----------------------------------------------------------- NOTE: The greater than 2 MeV electron fluence was moderate today. !!BEGIN!! (1.0) S.T.D. Solar Geophysical Data Broadcast for DAY 284, 10/11/95 10.7 FLUX=089.5 90-AVG=073 SSN=072 BKI=1441 3321 BAI=012 BGND-XRAY=B1.9 FLU1=5.6E+05 FLU10=1.7E+04 PKI=2442 3322 PAI=012 BOU-DEV=005,060,058,006,020,023,015,005 DEV-AVG=024 NT SWF=00:000 XRAY-MAX= C5.6 @ 1944UT XRAY-MIN= A9.1 @ 1837UT XRAY-AVG= B4.4 NEUTN-MAX= +002% @ 1930UT NEUTN-MIN= -002% @ 0545UT NEUTN-AVG= +0.1% PCA-MAX= +0.1DB @ 1130UT PCA-MIN= -0.5DB @ 1415UT PCA-AVG= -0.0DB BOUTF-MAX=55189NT @ 1307UT BOUTF-MIN=55156NT @ 1844UT BOUTF-AVG=55180NT GOES7-MAX=P:+000NT@ 0000UT GOES7-MIN=N:+000NT@ 0000UT G7-AVG=+057,+000,+000 GOES6-MAX=P:+000NT@ 0000UT GOES6-MIN=N:+000NT@ 0000UT G6-AVG=+000,+000,+000 FLUXFCST=STD:090,090,090;SESC:090,090,090 BAI/PAI-FCST=010,010,007/010,015,015 KFCST=2233 3222 2344 3322 27DAY-AP=010,030 27DAY-KP=3332 2223 3555 6322 WARNINGS=*SWF ALERTS= !!END-DATA!! NOTE: The Effective Sunspot Number for 10 OCT 95 was 10.0. The Full Kp Indices for 11 OCT 95 are: 2- 4- 4- 2- 3o 3- 2+ 2- The 3-Hr Ap Indices for 11 OCT 95 are: 7 23 24 7 15 12 9 6 Greater than 2 MeV Electron Fluence for 11 OCT is: 2.1E+08 DRAO 10.7 cm Solar Radio Flux at 18Z, 20Z, 22Z: 89.4, 89.5, 89.6 sfu. SYNOPSIS OF ACTIVITY -------------------- Solar activity was low with five C-class x-ray events recorded in the past 24 hours. The largest, and the only optically correlated event, was a C5/SF from Region 7912 (S10E57). Associated with this event was weak broad band radio emission from 43-15,400 Mhz. In the past 24 hours, 7912 has indicated impressive white light growth, most likely due to lessened foreshortening effects (50 mils to 280 mils). One new Region was numbered this period as a 3 spot beta group, Region 7913 (S17E43). All other regions were quiet and stable. Solar activity forecast: solar activity is expected to be low for the next three days. Region 7912 presents the best potential for C-class activity with a remote chance of M-class activity. STD: No solar WIND data was available today. The geomagnetic field has been at mostly quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Isolated periods of minor storm activity were observed at high latitudes. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux has been at high levels. Geophysical activity forecast: the geomagnetic field is expected to be mostly unsettled for the next three days. Event probabilities 12 oct-14 oct Class M 10/10/10 Class X 01/01/01 Proton 01/01/01 PCAF Green Geomagnetic activity probabilities 12 oct-14 oct A. Middle Latitudes Active 15/15/10 Minor Storm 05/05/05 Major-Severe Storm 01/01/01 B. High Latitudes Active 15/15/15 Minor Storm 05/10/10 Major-Severe Storm 01/05/05 HF propagation conditions were normal over all regions except the high and polar latitude night-sector circuits where periods of minor signal degradation persisted. Additional periods of minor signal degradation may be observed during the next 24 to 48 hours due to recurrent effects. There is a developing chance for short wave fadeouts on daylit paths affecting frequencies as high as 12 to 15 MHz as new solar regions begin showing signs of supporting high C-class and low M-class solar flares. ENERGETIC ELECTRON FLUENCE 60-DAY HISTORY AT GREATER THAN 2 MEV ------!------------+-------------!---------------+---------- 3.75E+09|......+.......... ...... ... ...+..... .... ..........|V. HIGH 2.16E+09|...V..+.......... ...... ..V ..V+..... .... ..........|V. HIGH 1.25E+09|..VV..+.......... ...... ..V ..V+..... .... ....VVV...|V. HIGH 7.18E+08|..VVH.+.......... ...... ..V .HV+..... .... ...HVVVVH.|High 4.14E+08|..VVH.+.......... ...... HHV HHV+..... .... ...HVVVVH.|Moderate 2.38E+08|..VVH.+.......... ...... HHV HHVm..... .... ...HVVVVH.| 1.37E+08|..VVH.+.......... ...... HHV HHVm..MM. .... ...HVVVVHM| 7.92E+07|MMVVH.+.......... ...... HHV HHVmM.MM. .... ...HVVVVHM| 4.56E+07|MMVVH.+.......... ...... HHV HHVmMMMM. .... ...HVVVVHM|Normal 2.63E+07|MMVVH.n..N...NN.. ...... HHV HHVmMMMM. .... .NNHVVVVHM| 1.52E+07|MMVVHNnNNN...NNN. ...... HHV HHVmMMMMN .... .NNHVVVVHM| 8.74E+06|MMVVHNnNNN...NNN. ...... HHV HHVmMMMMN NN.. .NNHVVVVHM| 5.04E+06|MMVVHNnNNN...NNNN NNN... HHV HHVmMMMMN NNN. .NNHVVVVHM| 2.91E+06|MMVVHNnNNNNNNNNNN NNN... HHV HHVmMMMMN NNNN NNNHVVVVHM| 1.68E+06|MMVVHNnNNNNNNNNNN NNNNNN HHV HHVmMMMMN NNNN NNNHVVVVHM| 9.73E+05|MMVVHNnNNNNNNNNNN NNNNNN HHV HHVmMMMMN NNNN NNNHVVVVHM| ------!------------+-------------!---------------+---------- Sep Oct NOTES: "V" = Very High Fluence, "H" = High Fluence, etc, " " = No Data, "!" = Solar rotational boundary periods from current date. Electron fluence is flux integrated over time in units of cm^-2 day^-1 sr^-1 as measured by GOES-8. Fluence values that are moderate or higher have been correlated with satellite anomalies. Sustained high to very high fluence has been correlated with serious malfunctions. COPIES OF JOINT USAF/NOAA SESC SOLAR GEOPHYSICAL REPORTS ======================================================== REGIONS WITH SUNSPOTS. LOCATIONS VALID AT 11/2400Z OCTOBER ---------------------------------------------------------- NMBR LOCATION LO AREA Z LL NN MAG TYPE 7910 S10E20 179 0100 CSO 04 003 BETA 7911 N07W35 234 0070 CAO 05 013 BETA 7912 S10E57 142 0280 DAO 09 013 BETA 7913 S17E43 156 0010 BXO 03 003 BETA REGIONS DUE TO RETURN 12 OCTOBER TO 14 OCTOBER NMBR LAT LO NONE LISTING OF SOLAR ENERGETIC EVENTS FOR 11 OCTOBER, 1995 ------------------------------------------------------ BEGIN MAX END RGN LOC XRAY OP 245MHZ 10CM SWEEP 1327 1335 1343 C1.2 100 7 1935 1944 1951 7912 S13E61 C5.6 SF 120 71 POSSIBLE CORONAL MASS EJECTION EVENTS FOR 11 OCTOBER, 1995 ---------------------------------------------------------- BEGIN MAX END LOCATION TYPE SIZE DUR II IV NO EVENTS OBSERVED INFERRED CORONAL HOLES. LOCATIONS VALID AT 11/2400Z --------------------------------------------------- ISOLATED HOLES AND POLAR EXTENSIONS EAST SOUTH WEST NORTH CAR TYPE POL AREA OBSN NONE VISIBLE SUMMARY OF FLARE EVENTS FOR THE PREVIOUS UTC DAY ------------------------------------------------ Date Begin Max End Xray Op Region Locn 2695 MHz 8800 MHz 15.4 GHz ------ ---- ---- ---- ---- -- ------ ------ --------- --------- --------- 09 Oct: 2341 2350 2357 B3.9 10 Oct: 0541 0558 0606 C1.3 0822 0827 0830 B3.0 1120 1128 1140 B3.5 1348 1356 1400 B5.5 1549 1549 1552 SF 7912 S13E72 1631 1640 1642 C2.1 SF 7912 S13E77 2249 2249 2303 SF 7912 S12E70 2311 2314 2324 SF 7912 S12E67 REGION FLARE STATISTICS FOR THE PREVIOUS UTC DAY ------------------------------------------------ C M X S 1 2 3 4 Total (%) -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- --- ------ Region 7912: 1 0 0 4 0 0 0 0 004 (44.4) Uncorrellated: 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 005 (55.6) Total Events: 009 optical and x-ray. EVENTS WITH SWEEPS AND/OR OPTICAL PHENOMENA FOR THE LAST UTC DAY ---------------------------------------------------------------- Date Begin Max End Xray Op Region Locn Sweeps/Optical Observations ------ ---- ---- ---- ---- -- ------ ------ --------------------------- NO EVENTS OBSERVED. NOTES: All times are in Universal Time (UT). Characters preceding begin, max, and end times are defined as: B = Before, U = Uncertain, A = After. All times associated with x-ray flares (ex. flares which produce associated x-ray bursts) refer to the begin, max, and end times of the x-rays. Flares which are not associated with x-ray signatures use the optical observations to determine the begin, max, and end times. Acronyms used to identify sweeps and optical phenomena include: II = Type II Sweep Frequency Event III = Type III Sweep IV = Type IV Sweep V = Type V Sweep Continuum = Continuum Radio Event Loop = Loop Prominence System, Spray = Limb Spray, Surge = Bright Limb Surge, EPL = Eruptive Prominence on the Limb. ** End of Daily Report ** No data for 95 285 /\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\ DAILY SUMMARY OF SOLAR GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY 13 OCTOBER, 1995 /\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\ (Based In-Part On SESC Observational Data) SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY INDICES FOR 13 OCTOBER, 1995 ----------------------------------------------------------- NOTE: The greater than 2 MeV electron fluence was moderate today. !!BEGIN!! (1.0) S.T.D. Solar Geophysical Data Broadcast for DAY 286, 10/13/95 10.7 FLUX=087.9 90-AVG=073 SSN=074 BKI=4223 2212 BAI=010 BGND-XRAY=B2.9 FLU1=3.2E+05 FLU10=1.7E+04 PKI=4333 2222 PAI=010 BOU-DEV=010,019,019,021,014,016,009,013 DEV-AVG=015 NT SWF=01:003 XRAY-MAX= M4.8 @ 0507UT XRAY-MIN= A9.9 @ 1853UT XRAY-AVG= B3.3 NEUTN-MAX= +002% @ 2335UT NEUTN-MIN= -002% @ 2159UT NEUTN-AVG= +0.1% PCA-MAX= +0.1DB @ 1445UT PCA-MIN= -0.4DB @ 1515UT PCA-AVG= -0.0DB BOUTF-MAX=55192NT @ 1336UT BOUTF-MIN=55161NT @ 1836UT BOUTF-AVG=55178NT GOES7-MAX=P:+000NT@ 0000UT GOES7-MIN=N:+000NT@ 0000UT G7-AVG=+068,+000,+000 GOES6-MAX=P:+000NT@ 0000UT GOES6-MIN=N:+000NT@ 0000UT G6-AVG=+000,+000,+000 FLUXFCST=STD:090,090,088;SESC:090,090,088 BAI/PAI-FCST=010,015,025/010,015,020 KFCST=2233 3222 2223 3344 27DAY-AP=011,006 27DAY-KP=2243 2222 3212 2121 WARNINGS=*SWF;*GSTRM;*AURMIDWRN ALERTS=**MINFLR:M4.8/1F@0507;**SWEEP:II=3@0505-0520UTC(SHOCK=~1250KM/SEC); **TENFLR:210SFU@0502UTC,DUR=7MINUTES !!END-DATA!! NOTE: The Effective Sunspot Number for 12 OCT 95 was 10.4. The Full Kp Indices for 13 OCT 95 are: 4- 3- 3- 3- 2+ 2- 2- 2o The 3-Hr Ap Indices for 13 OCT 95 are: 23 11 11 14 10 7 7 9 Greater than 2 MeV Electron Fluence for 13 OCT is: 2.5E+08 DRAO 10.7 cm Solar Radio Flux at 18Z, 20Z, 22Z: 89.8, 87.9, 89.6 sfu. SYNOPSIS OF ACTIVITY -------------------- Solar activity was moderate. Region 7912 (S10E29) produced an M4/1F x-ray event with max at 13/0504UT. Associated with this event was quite a bit of radio activity to include a Type II sweep at 13/0505UT that extended from 25-490 MHz. Shock velocity was estimated at 1250 km/s. Discrete frequency radio activity consisted of moderate to high emission spanning the frequency range 245 MHz to 15.4 GHz to include a 210 sfu tenflare at 13/0502UT. Activity since the M4 has mainly consisted of moderate B and C-class events. This reversed polarity region has shown some structure change in past 24 hours. The leader penumbra indicates a totally symmetrical appearance while the trailer portion of the group has broken into three distinct areas of penumbra. The remaining groups on the disk have shown some slight decay in the past 24 hours while staying relatively quiet. Solar activity forecast: solar activity is expected to be low for the next three days. The possibility of M-class activity still exists from Region 7912. STD: There were no solar WIND measurements made today. The geomagnetic field has been at mostly quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at moderate to high levels. Geophysical activity forecast: the geomagnetic field is expected to be mostly quiet to unsettled for the first two days of the forecast period. By day three, the field is expected to be mostly unsettled to active in response to the M4/1F Type II sweep of 13 Oct. Event probabilities 14 oct-16 oct Class M 15/15/15 Class X 01/01/01 Proton 01/01/01 PCAF Green Geomagnetic activity probabilities 14 oct-16 oct A. Middle Latitudes Active 10/25/25 Minor Storm 05/15/15 Major-Severe Storm 01/05/05 B. High Latitudes Active 15/25/25 Minor Storm 05/15/15 Major-Severe Storm 01/05/05 HF propagation conditions were near-normal over all regions today. There was a major short-wave fadeout observed by numerous daylit stations around the world around the time of the M-class flare today. It was relatively brief (approximately 30 minutes in duration), but absorbed frequencies as high as about 12 to 15 MHz. Similar conditions are expected over the next 24 to 36 hours. Late on 15 October and particularly on 16 October, upper-middle to polar latitude propagation may begin to show signs of degradation if the suspected coronal mass ejection from the M4.8 tenflare arrives. Otherwise, near-normal propagation should persist through 16 October, barring further significant solar outbursts. There remains a fairly good chance for periods of short wave fadeouts on daylit paths due to continuing minor flare activity. ENERGETIC ELECTRON FLUENCE 60-DAY HISTORY AT GREATER THAN 2 MEV ------!----------+---------------!-------------+------------ 3.75E+09|......+........ ...... ... .....+... .... ............|V. HIGH 2.16E+09|.V....+........ ...... ..V ..V..+... .... ............|V. HIGH 1.25E+09|VV....+........ ...... ..V ..V..+... .... ....VVV.....|V. HIGH 7.18E+08|VVH...+........ ...... ..V .HV..+... .... ...HVVVVH...|High 4.14E+08|VVH...+........ ...... HHV HHV..+... .... ...HVVVVH...|Moderate 2.38E+08|VVH...+........ ...... HHV HHVM.+... .... ...HVVVVH..M| 1.37E+08|VVH...+........ ...... HHV HHVM.+MM. .... ...HVVVVHMMM| 7.92E+07|VVH...+........ ...... HHV HHVMM+MM. .... ...HVVVVHMMM| 4.56E+07|VVH...+........ ...... HHV HHVMMmMM. .... ...HVVVVHMMM|Normal 2.63E+07|VVH.N.+N...NN.. ...... HHV HHVMMmMM. .... .NNHVVVVHMMM| 1.52E+07|VVHNNNnN...NNN. ...... HHV HHVMMmMMN .... .NNHVVVVHMMM| 8.74E+06|VVHNNNnN...NNN. ...... HHV HHVMMmMMN NN.. .NNHVVVVHMMM| 5.04E+06|VVHNNNnN...NNNN NNN... HHV HHVMMmMMN NNN. .NNHVVVVHMMM| 2.91E+06|VVHNNNnNNNNNNNN NNN... HHV HHVMMmMMN NNNN NNNHVVVVHMMM| 1.68E+06|VVHNNNnNNNNNNNN NNNNNN HHV HHVMMmMMN NNNN NNNHVVVVHMMM| 9.73E+05|VVHNNNnNNNNNNNN NNNNNN HHV HHVMMmMMN NNNN NNNHVVVVHMMM| ------!----------+---------------!-------------+------------ Sep Oct NOTES: "V" = Very High Fluence, "H" = High Fluence, etc, " " = No Data, "!" = Solar rotational boundary periods from current date. Electron fluence is flux integrated over time in units of cm^-2 day^-1 sr^-1 as measured by GOES-8. Fluence values that are moderate or higher have been correlated with satellite anomalies. Sustained high to very high fluence has been correlated with serious malfunctions. COPIES OF JOINT USAF/NOAA SESC SOLAR GEOPHYSICAL REPORTS ======================================================== REGIONS WITH SUNSPOTS. LOCATIONS VALID AT 13/2400Z OCTOBER ---------------------------------------------------------- NMBR LOCATION LO AREA Z LL NN MAG TYPE 7910 S10W04 177 0120 CAO 06 010 BETA 7911 N07W62 235 0040 CSO 06 004 BETA 7912 S10E29 144 0390 EHO 11 016 BETA-GAMMA 7913 S17E17 156 0010 BXO 05 004 BETA REGIONS DUE TO RETURN 14 OCTOBER TO 16 OCTOBER NMBR LAT LO 7907 N07 068 LISTING OF SOLAR ENERGETIC EVENTS FOR 13 OCTOBER, 1995 ------------------------------------------------------ BEGIN MAX END RGN LOC XRAY OP 245MHZ 10CM SWEEP 0501 0504 0507 7912 S11E43 M4.8 1F 1700 210 II 1609 1609 1610 380 POSSIBLE CORONAL MASS EJECTION EVENTS FOR 13 OCTOBER, 1995 ---------------------------------------------------------- BEGIN MAX END LOCATION TYPE SIZE DUR II IV 13/ 0505 0520 S11E43 RSP M4.8 6 3 INFERRED CORONAL HOLES. LOCATIONS VALID AT 13/2400Z --------------------------------------------------- ISOLATED HOLES AND POLAR EXTENSIONS EAST SOUTH WEST NORTH CAR TYPE POL AREA OBSN 80 S05E41 S05E41 N17E27 N19E30 142 ISO POS 003 10830A SUMMARY OF FLARE EVENTS FOR THE PREVIOUS UTC DAY ------------------------------------------------ Date Begin Max End Xray Op Region Locn 2695 MHz 8800 MHz 15.4 GHz ------ ---- ---- ---- ---- -- ------ ------ --------- --------- --------- 11 Oct: 0354 0401 0409 C1.0 0605 0615 0622 C5.0 64 76 0835 0843 0849 C1.9 48 29 0909 0915 0924 B8.4 1327 1335 1343 C1.2 7 18 1404 1408 1412 B3.8 1438 1438 1442 SF 7912 S09E66 1805 1808 1812 B2.3 1935 1944 1951 C5.6 SF 7912 S13E61 71 230 210 12 Oct: 0300 0306 0314 C1.7 23 0532 0538 0543 B7.1 0552 0605 0617 M1.5 SF 7912 S12E55 21 49 180 0727 0743 0754 C1.4 0932 0943 0947 B6.0 0955 1004 1012 C1.0 1135 1141 1146 B6.0 1251 1256 1309 SF 7910 S11E15 1359 1415 1427 C1.8 SF 7912 S10E52 1432 1437 1439 SF 7912 S10E50 1629 1632 1638 B5.2 SF 7912 S11E46 1639 1642 1647 B6.3 SF 7912 S09E50 1715 1725 1737 C2.8 SF 7912 S10E50 1833 1844 1859 C1.1 SF 7912 S11E49 2058 2106 2110 C1.3 SF 7912 S10E47 REGION FLARE STATISTICS FOR THE PREVIOUS UTC DAY ------------------------------------------------ C M X S 1 2 3 4 Total (%) -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- --- ------ Region 7910: 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 001 ( 4.2) Region 7912: 5 1 0 10 0 0 0 0 010 (41.7) Uncorrellated: 7 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 013 (54.2) Total Events: 024 optical and x-ray. EVENTS WITH SWEEPS AND/OR OPTICAL PHENOMENA FOR THE LAST UTC DAY ---------------------------------------------------------------- Date Begin Max End Xray Op Region Locn Sweeps/Optical Observations ------ ---- ---- ---- ---- -- ------ ------ --------------------------- 11 Oct: 0354 0401 0409 C1.0 III 0605 0615 0622 C5.0 III 1935 1944 1951 C5.6 SF 7912 S13E61 III 12 Oct: 0300 0306 0314 C1.7 II,III 0552 0605 0617 M1.5 SF 7912 S12E55 II,III 0727 0743 0754 C1.4 III 1833 1844 1859 C1.1 SF 7912 S11E49 III NOTES: All times are in Universal Time (UT). Characters preceding begin, max, and end times are defined as: B = Before, U = Uncertain, A = After. All times associated with x-ray flares (ex. flares which produce associated x-ray bursts) refer to the begin, max, and end times of the x-rays. Flares which are not associated with x-ray signatures use the optical observations to determine the begin, max, and end times. Acronyms used to identify sweeps and optical phenomena include: II = Type II Sweep Frequency Event III = Type III Sweep IV = Type IV Sweep V = Type V Sweep Continuum = Continuum Radio Event Loop = Loop Prominence System, Spray = Limb Spray, Surge = Bright Limb Surge, EPL = Eruptive Prominence on the Limb. ** End of Daily Report ** /\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\ DAILY SUMMARY OF SOLAR GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY 14 OCTOBER, 1995 /\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\ (Based In-Part On SESC Observational Data) SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY INDICES FOR 14 OCTOBER, 1995 ----------------------------------------------------------- NOTE: The greater than 2 MeV electron fluence was moderate today. !!BEGIN!! (1.0) S.T.D. Solar Geophysical Data Broadcast for DAY 287, 10/14/95 10.7 FLUX=087.2 90-AVG=073 SSN=073 BKI=2211 1211 BAI=004 BGND-XRAY=B1.5 FLU1=2.5E+05 FLU10=1.8E+04 PKI=2222 2222 PAI=006 BOU-DEV=010,010,008,008,006,013,007,007 DEV-AVG=008 NT SWF=00:000 XRAY-MAX= C4.3 @ 1121UT XRAY-MIN= A7.0 @ 0504UT XRAY-AVG= B4.9 NEUTN-MAX= +003% @ 1700UT NEUTN-MIN= -001% @ 2230UT NEUTN-AVG= +0.2% PCA-MAX= +0.1DB @ 1645UT PCA-MIN= -0.3DB @ 1545UT PCA-AVG= -0.0DB BOUTF-MAX=55189NT @ 2234UT BOUTF-MIN=55168NT @ 1813UT BOUTF-AVG=55182NT GOES7-MAX=P:+000NT@ 0000UT GOES7-MIN=N:+000NT@ 0000UT G7-AVG=+075,+000,+000 GOES6-MAX=P:+000NT@ 0000UT GOES6-MIN=N:+000NT@ 0000UT G6-AVG=+000,+000,+000 FLUXFCST=STD:087,085,085;SESC:087,085,085 BAI/PAI-FCST=015,025,020/015,025,020 KFCST=2223 3344 5544 3332 27DAY-AP=006,004 27DAY-KP=3212 2121 1111 1122 WARNINGS=*SWF;*MAJFLR;*GSTRM;*AURMIDWRN ALERTS=**SWEEP:IV=3@0806-0819UTC !!END-DATA!! NOTE: The Effective Sunspot Number for 13 OCT 95 was 10.8. The Full Kp Indices for 14 OCT 95 are: 2- 2o 2o 2- 2- 2- 2o 2- The 3-Hr Ap Indices for 14 OCT 95 are: 6 8 7 6 6 6 9 7 Greater than 2 MeV Electron Fluence for 14 OCT is: 3.2E+08 DRAO 10.7 cm Solar Radio Flux at 18Z, 20Z, 22Z: 85.4, 87.2, 86.7 sfu. SYNOPSIS OF ACTIVITY -------------------- Solar activity was low. Region 7912 (S10E16) produced 4 C-class/SF x-ray events this period, the largest being a C5/SF at 14/0657UT. A B9, optically uncorrelated x-ray event at 14/0743UT produced strong discrete radio signatures on 245-610 MHz in addition to a significant Type IV sweep across 035-085 MHz. Region 7912 has indicated some decay in area coverage (390mils to 290mils) with a slight increase in spot count (16 to 19) and is now a simple beta group. No significant changes or activity noted from the remainder of the disk and limb. Solar activity forecast: solar activity is expected to be low for the next three days. A slight chance of M-class activity is still possible from Region 7912. STD: Solar WIND data was received from 14/19:45 to 15/00:15 UTC. Data indicated a steady solar wind velocity of 400 km/sec until 23:15 UTC when it dropped to 375 km/sec. The Bz IMF component was generally northward at about +2 nT. There was a brief southward excursion to a weak -1 nT from 21:30 to 23:00 UTC. A five-degree filament located near S11E14 erupted between 15:43 and 16:34 UTC. There were numerous weak to moderate intensity Type III radio bursts throughout the day. The geomagnetic field has been at mostly quiet levels for the past 24 hours. The greater than 2 mev electron flux was at moderate to high levels. Geophysical activity forecast: the geomagnetic field is expected to be mostly quiet to unsettled for day one of the forecast period. By day two, the field is expected to be mostly unsettled to active in response to the M4/1F Type II sweep of 13 Oct. These conditions are expected to persist through day three. Event probabilities 15 oct-17 oct Class M 10/05/01 Class X 01/01/01 Proton 01/01/01 PCAF Green Geomagnetic activity probabilities 15 oct-17 oct A. Middle Latitudes Active 20/30/25 Minor Storm 10/10/10 Major-Severe Storm 05/05/05 B. High Latitudes Active 20/30/25 Minor Storm 10/10/10 Major-Severe Storm 01/05/01 HF propagation conditions were normal over all regions today. Normal conditions should persist through most of 15 October. The anticipated disturbance noted above may arrive later on 15 October or on 16 October and should result in minor signal degradation on upper-middle to polar latitude paths. Conditions should return to normal (barring additional solar outbursts) by about 17 October. The potential for SWFs on daylit paths still exists. ENERGETIC ELECTRON FLUENCE 60-DAY HISTORY AT GREATER THAN 2 MEV ------!---------+----------------!------------+------------- 3.75E+09|......+....... ...... ... ......+.. .... .............|V. HIGH 2.16E+09|V.....+....... ...... ..V ..V...+.. .... .............|V. HIGH 1.25E+09|V.....+....... ...... ..V ..V...+.. .... ....VVV......|V. HIGH 7.18E+08|VH....+....... ...... ..V .HV...+.. .... ...HVVVVH....|High 4.14E+08|VH....+....... ...... HHV HHV...+.. .... ...HVVVVH....|Moderate 2.38E+08|VH....+....... ...... HHV HHVM..+.. .... ...HVVVVH..MM| 1.37E+08|VH....+....... ...... HHV HHVM..mM. .... ...HVVVVHMMMM| 7.92E+07|VH....+....... ...... HHV HHVMM.mM. .... ...HVVVVHMMMM| 4.56E+07|VH....+....... ...... HHV HHVMMMmM. .... ...HVVVVHMMMM|Normal 2.63E+07|VH.N..n...NN.. ...... HHV HHVMMMmM. .... .NNHVVVVHMMMM| 1.52E+07|VHNNNNn...NNN. ...... HHV HHVMMMmMN .... .NNHVVVVHMMMM| 8.74E+06|VHNNNNn...NNN. ...... HHV HHVMMMmMN NN.. .NNHVVVVHMMMM| 5.04E+06|VHNNNNn...NNNN NNN... HHV HHVMMMmMN NNN. .NNHVVVVHMMMM| 2.91E+06|VHNNNNnNNNNNNN NNN... HHV HHVMMMmMN NNNN NNNHVVVVHMMMM| 1.68E+06|VHNNNNnNNNNNNN NNNNNN HHV HHVMMMmMN NNNN NNNHVVVVHMMMM| 9.73E+05|VHNNNNnNNNNNNN NNNNNN HHV HHVMMMmMN NNNN NNNHVVVVHMMMM| ------!---------+----------------!------------+------------- Sep Oct NOTES: "V" = Very High Fluence, "H" = High Fluence, etc, " " = No Data, "!" = Solar rotational boundary periods from current date. Electron fluence is flux integrated over time in units of cm^-2 day^-1 sr^-1 as measured by GOES-8. Fluence values that are moderate or higher have been correlated with satellite anomalies. Sustained high to very high fluence has been correlated with serious malfunctions. COPIES OF JOINT USAF/NOAA SESC SOLAR GEOPHYSICAL REPORTS ======================================================== REGIONS WITH SUNSPOTS. LOCATIONS VALID AT 14/2400Z OCTOBER ---------------------------------------------------------- NMBR LOCATION LO AREA Z LL NN MAG TYPE 7910 S11W17 177 0130 CSO 05 009 BETA 7911 N07W79 239 0020 HSX 01 001 ALPHA 7912 S10E16 144 0290 ESO 11 019 BETA 7913 S18E04 156 0010 BXO 04 004 BETA REGIONS DUE TO RETURN 15 OCTOBER TO 17 OCTOBER NMBR LAT LO 7907 N07 068 LISTING OF SOLAR ENERGETIC EVENTS FOR 14 OCTOBER, 1995 ------------------------------------------------------ BEGIN MAX END RGN LOC XRAY OP 245MHZ 10CM SWEEP 0816 0819 0820 620 IV 0838 0845 0853 100 1912 1912 1913 100 POSSIBLE CORONAL MASS EJECTION EVENTS FOR 14 OCTOBER, 1995 ---------------------------------------------------------- BEGIN MAX END LOCATION TYPE SIZE DUR II IV 14/ 0806 0819 RSP 3 14/ 1543 1634 S11E14 DSF B4.4 6 INFERRED CORONAL HOLES. LOCATIONS VALID AT 14/2400Z --------------------------------------------------- ISOLATED HOLES AND POLAR EXTENSIONS EAST SOUTH WEST NORTH CAR TYPE POL AREA OBSN 80 S01E28 S05E20 N23E13 N26E18 143 ISO POS 006 10830A SUMMARY OF FLARE EVENTS FOR THE PREVIOUS UTC DAY ------------------------------------------------ Date Begin Max End Xray Op Region Locn 2695 MHz 8800 MHz 15.4 GHz ------ ---- ---- ---- ---- -- ------ ------ --------- --------- --------- 12 Oct: 0300 0306 0314 C1.7 23 0532 0538 0543 B7.1 0552 0605 0617 M1.5 SF 7912 S12E55 21 49 180 0727 0743 0754 C1.4 0932 0943 0947 B6.0 0955 1004 1012 C1.0 1135 1141 1146 B6.0 1251 1256 1309 SF 7910 S11E15 1359 1415 1427 C1.8 SF 7912 S10E52 1432 1437 1439 SF 7912 S10E50 1629 1632 1638 B5.2 SF 7912 S11E46 1639 1642 1647 B6.3 SF 7912 S09E50 1715 1725 1737 C2.8 SF 7912 S10E50 1833 1844 1859 C1.1 SF 7912 S11E49 2058 2106 2110 C1.3 SF 7912 S10E47 13 Oct: 0054 0102 0109 C7.7 23 0501 0504 0507 M4.8 1F 7912 S11E43 210 180 97 0916 0921 0931 B5.4 SF 7912 S08E39 1025 1028 1032 B3.3 1251 1302 1307 B7.5 1359 1404 1407 B5.3 SF 7912 S09E38 1409 1412 1430 SF 7910 S12E03 1516 1520 1522 C5.0 SF 7912 S09E35 30 90 58 1918 1928 1937 B3.9 2028 2032 2034 B2.0 SF 7912 S11E33 2101 2107 2113 B2.8 2126 2132 2138 B4.2 SF 7912 S11E32 2149 2155 2205 SF 7913 S19E17 2212 2215 2219 SF 7913 S19E18 2314 2320 2325 B2.5 REGION FLARE STATISTICS FOR THE PREVIOUS UTC DAY ------------------------------------------------ C M X S 1 2 3 4 Total (%) -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- --- ------ Region 7910: 0 0 0 2 0 0 0 0 002 ( 6.7) Region 7912: 5 2 0 13 1 0 0 0 014 (46.7) Region 7913: 0 0 0 2 0 0 0 0 002 ( 6.7) Uncorrellated: 4 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 012 (40.0) Total Events: 030 optical and x-ray. EVENTS WITH SWEEPS AND/OR OPTICAL PHENOMENA FOR THE LAST UTC DAY ---------------------------------------------------------------- Date Begin Max End Xray Op Region Locn Sweeps/Optical Observations ------ ---- ---- ---- ---- -- ------ ------ --------------------------- 12 Oct: 0300 0306 0314 C1.7 II,III 0552 0605 0617 M1.5 SF 7912 S12E55 II,III 0727 0743 0754 C1.4 III 1833 1844 1859 C1.1 SF 7912 S11E49 III 13 Oct: 0501 0504 0507 M4.8 1F 7912 S11E43 II,III 1251 1302 1307 B7.5 III 1359 1404 1407 B5.3 SF 7912 S09E38 V 1409 1412 1430 SF 7910 S12E03 III,V 2212 2215 2219 SF 7913 S19E18 III,V NOTES: All times are in Universal Time (UT). Characters preceding begin, max, and end times are defined as: B = Before, U = Uncertain, A = After. All times associated with x-ray flares (ex. flares which produce associated x-ray bursts) refer to the begin, max, and end times of the x-rays. Flares which are not associated with x-ray signatures use the optical observations to determine the begin, max, and end times. Acronyms used to identify sweeps and optical phenomena include: II = Type II Sweep Frequency Event III = Type III Sweep IV = Type IV Sweep V = Type V Sweep Continuum = Continuum Radio Event Loop = Loop Prominence System, Spray = Limb Spray, Surge = Bright Limb Surge, EPL = Eruptive Prominence on the Limb. ** End of Daily Report ** /\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\ DAILY SUMMARY OF SOLAR GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY 15 OCTOBER, 1995 /\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\ (Based In-Part On SESC Observational Data) SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY INDICES FOR 15 OCTOBER, 1995 ----------------------------------------------------------- NOTE: The greater than 2 MeV electron fluence was moderate today. !!BEGIN!! (1.0) S.T.D. Solar Geophysical Data Broadcast for DAY 288, 10/15/95 10.7 FLUX=083.0 90-AVG=073 SSN=050 BKI=2221 2202 BAI=005 BGND-XRAY=B1.1 FLU1=3.0E+05 FLU10=1.8E+04 PKI=2111 2212 PAI=006 BOU-DEV=011,015,010,008,015,017,004,015 DEV-AVG=011 NT SWF=00:000 XRAY-MAX= B6.1 @ 0104UT XRAY-MIN= A4.1 @ 2336UT XRAY-AVG= A8.9 NEUTN-MAX= +002% @ 2230UT NEUTN-MIN= -002% @ 1005UT NEUTN-AVG= +0.2% PCA-MAX= +0.1DB @ 1450UT PCA-MIN= -0.3DB @ 1240UT PCA-AVG= -0.0DB BOUTF-MAX=55187NT @ 1309UT BOUTF-MIN=55172NT @ 1802UT BOUTF-AVG=55180NT GOES7-MAX=P:+000NT@ 0000UT GOES7-MIN=N:+000NT@ 0000UT G7-AVG=+071,+000,+000 GOES6-MAX=P:+000NT@ 0000UT GOES6-MIN=N:+000NT@ 0000UT G6-AVG=+000,+000,+000 FLUXFCST=STD:082,082,080;SESC:082,082,080 BAI/PAI-FCST=020,015,015/015,020,020 KFCST=2115 4222 2114 3111 27DAY-AP=004,004 27DAY-KP=1111 1122 1111 1111 WARNINGS=*GSTRM;*AURMIDWRN;*SWF ALERTS= !!END-DATA!! NOTE: The Effective Sunspot Number for 14 OCT 95 was 12.8. The Full Kp Indices for 15 OCT 95 are: 2- 1+ 1o 1+ 2o 2o 1+ 2+ The 3-Hr Ap Indices for 15 OCT 95 are: 6 5 4 5 8 8 5 10 Greater than 2 MeV Electron Fluence for 15 OCT is: 3.9E+08 DRAO 10.7 cm Solar Radio Flux at 18Z, 20Z, 22Z: 83.2, 83.0, 83.5 sfu. SYNOPSIS OF ACTIVITY -------------------- Solar activity was very low. Region 7912 (S09E03) managed to produce only a B6/SF flare this period. This region is showing slow decay and is relatively stable, as are the other two spotted regions on the visible disk, Regions 7910 (S06W42) and 7913 (S17W11). There were seven uncorrelated B-class x-ray bursts detected as well. Solar activity forecast: solar activity is expected to be very low to low for the entire forecast period. Region 7912 has a small chance of producing an isolated M-class flare. STD: Only solar WIND MFI data was available from 15:00 to 22:20 UTC. Data indicated a weakly northward Bz component at the beginning of the period. The field then turned weakly southward about halfway through the period and ended the period weakly southward at about -2 nT. There were numerous Type III bursts during the day, most of them occurring during the early part of the UTC day. Burst drifts varied within the limits of about 130 to 18 MHz and varied from weak to strong intensities. Region 7912 is expected to remain relatively stable, barring new flux emergence. The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Geophysical activity forecast: the geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to active for the next 24 to 36 hours in response to an apparent coronal mass ejection connected with the M4/1F flare with the associated Type II sweep on 13 Oct. The field is expected to be mostly unsettled for the remainder of the period. Event probabilities 16 oct-18 oct Class M 05/05/01 Class X 01/01/01 Proton 01/01/01 PCAF Green Geomagnetic activity probabilities 16 oct-18 oct A. Middle Latitudes Active 20/25/25 Minor Storm 15/15/15 Major-Severe Storm 10/05/05 B. High Latitudes Active 25/20/20 Minor Storm 20/20/20 Major-Severe Storm 10/05/05 HF propagation conditions were normal over all regions. A possible disturbance related to a suspected coronal mass ejection associated with the M4.8 flare of 13 October is expected to arrive sometime on 16 October and result in periods of minor signal degradation on high and polar latitude paths with some periods of degradation also experienced on the upper-middle latitude circuits. If the disturbance fails to arrive, near-normal conditions should continue through 16 October. Periods of minor signal degradation are expected to affect high and polar latitude paths on 17 and 18 October as well. The threat for SWF activity on daylit paths is declining as Region 7912 continues to slowly decay and stabilize. ENERGETIC ELECTRON FLUENCE 60-DAY HISTORY AT GREATER THAN 2 MEV ------!--------+-----------------!-----------+-------------- 3.75E+09|......+...... ...... ... .......+. .... ..............|V. HIGH 2.16E+09|......+...... ...... ..V ..V....+. .... ..............|V. HIGH 1.25E+09|......+...... ...... ..V ..V....+. .... ....VVV.......|V. HIGH 7.18E+08|H.....+...... ...... ..V .HV....+. .... ...HVVVVH.....|High 4.14E+08|H.....+...... ...... HHV HHV....+. .... ...HVVVVH.....|Moderate 2.38E+08|H.....+...... ...... HHV HHVM...+. .... ...HVVVVH..MMM| 1.37E+08|H.....+...... ...... HHV HHVM..Mm. .... ...HVVVVHMMMMM| 7.92E+07|H.....+...... ...... HHV HHVMM.Mm. .... ...HVVVVHMMMMM| 4.56E+07|H.....+...... ...... HHV HHVMMMMm. .... ...HVVVVHMMMMM|Normal 2.63E+07|H.N..N+..NN.. ...... HHV HHVMMMMm. .... .NNHVVVVHMMMMM| 1.52E+07|HNNNNN+..NNN. ...... HHV HHVMMMMmN .... .NNHVVVVHMMMMM| 8.74E+06|HNNNNN+..NNN. ...... HHV HHVMMMMmN NN.. .NNHVVVVHMMMMM| 5.04E+06|HNNNNN+..NNNN NNN... HHV HHVMMMMmN NNN. .NNHVVVVHMMMMM| 2.91E+06|HNNNNNnNNNNNN NNN... HHV HHVMMMMmN NNNN NNNHVVVVHMMMMM| 1.68E+06|HNNNNNnNNNNNN NNNNNN HHV HHVMMMMmN NNNN NNNHVVVVHMMMMM| 9.73E+05|HNNNNNnNNNNNN NNNNNN HHV HHVMMMMmN NNNN NNNHVVVVHMMMMM| ------!--------+-----------------!-----------+-------------- Sep Oct NOTES: "V" = Very High Fluence, "H" = High Fluence, etc, " " = No Data, "!" = Solar rotational boundary periods from current date. Electron fluence is flux integrated over time in units of cm^-2 day^-1 sr^-1 as measured by GOES-8. Fluence values that are moderate or higher have been correlated with satellite anomalies. Sustained high to very high fluence has been correlated with serious malfunctions. COPIES OF JOINT USAF/NOAA SESC SOLAR GEOPHYSICAL REPORTS ======================================================== REGIONS WITH SUNSPOTS. LOCATIONS VALID AT 15/2400Z OCTOBER ---------------------------------------------------------- NMBR LOCATION LO AREA Z LL NN MAG TYPE 7910 S06W32 179 0110 CSO 04 004 BETA 7912 S09E03 144 0250 CSO 11 015 BETA 7913 S17W11 158 0000 AXX 00 001 ALPHA REGIONS DUE TO RETURN 16 OCTOBER TO 18 OCTOBER NMBR LAT LO NONE LISTING OF SOLAR ENERGETIC EVENTS FOR 15 OCTOBER, 1995 ------------------------------------------------------ BEGIN MAX END RGN LOC XRAY OP 245MHZ 10CM SWEEP NONE POSSIBLE CORONAL MASS EJECTION EVENTS FOR 15 OCTOBER, 1995 ---------------------------------------------------------- BEGIN MAX END LOCATION TYPE SIZE DUR II IV NO EVENTS OBSERVED INFERRED CORONAL HOLES. LOCATIONS VALID AT 15/2400Z --------------------------------------------------- ISOLATED HOLES AND POLAR EXTENSIONS EAST SOUTH WEST NORTH CAR TYPE POL AREA OBSN 80 S01E15 S03E09 N35W00 N35E09 145 ISO POS 008 10830A SUMMARY OF FLARE EVENTS FOR THE PREVIOUS UTC DAY ------------------------------------------------ Date Begin Max End Xray Op Region Locn 2695 MHz 8800 MHz 15.4 GHz ------ ---- ---- ---- ---- -- ------ ------ --------- --------- --------- 13 Oct: 0054 0102 0109 C7.7 23 0501 0504 0507 M4.8 1F 7912 S11E43 210 180 97 0916 0921 0931 B5.4 SF 7912 S08E39 1025 1028 1032 B3.3 1251 1302 1307 B7.5 1359 1404 1407 B5.3 SF 7912 S09E38 1409 1412 1430 SF 7910 S12E03 1516 1520 1522 C5.0 SF 7912 S09E35 30 90 58 1918 1928 1937 B3.9 2028 2032 2034 B2.0 SF 7912 S11E33 2101 2107 2113 B2.8 2126 2132 2138 B4.2 SF 7912 S11E32 2149 2155 2205 SF 7913 S19E17 2212 2215 2219 SF 7913 S19E18 2314 2320 2325 B2.5 14 Oct: 0036 0047 0056 B4.2 0142 0149 0155 C1.3 0222 0228 0231 C1.4 0517 0520 0523 B1.2 0651 0657 0701 C5.2 SF 7912 S10E27 22 0735 0743 0756 B9.5 0920 0924 0926 C1.6 SF 7912 S07E25 0949 0952 1007 C1.6 1045 1116 1226 SN 7910 S09W09 1232 1235 1245 SF 7912 S13E18 1329 1407 1414 C2.3 1F 7912 S10E23 1532 1535 1538 B3.7 1539 1543 1545 B4.4 1717 1722 1728 B6.8 SF 7912 S10E21 1815 1819 1823 B3.0 SF 7912 S10E22 1919 1927 1932 C1.9 SF 7912 S12E16 2354 2358 0002 B4.6 REGION FLARE STATISTICS FOR THE PREVIOUS UTC DAY ------------------------------------------------ C M X S 1 2 3 4 Total (%) -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- --- ------ Region 7910: 0 0 0 2 0 0 0 0 002 ( 6.2) Region 7912: 5 1 0 11 2 0 0 0 013 (40.6) Region 7913: 0 0 0 2 0 0 0 0 002 ( 6.2) Uncorrellated: 4 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 015 (46.9) Total Events: 032 optical and x-ray. EVENTS WITH SWEEPS AND/OR OPTICAL PHENOMENA FOR THE LAST UTC DAY ---------------------------------------------------------------- Date Begin Max End Xray Op Region Locn Sweeps/Optical Observations ------ ---- ---- ---- ---- -- ------ ------ --------------------------- 13 Oct: 0501 0504 0507 M4.8 1F 7912 S11E43 II,III 1251 1302 1307 B7.5 III 1359 1404 1407 B5.3 SF 7912 S09E38 V 1409 1412 1430 SF 7910 S12E03 III,V 2212 2215 2219 SF 7913 S19E18 III,V 14 Oct: 0517 0520 0523 B1.2 III 0651 0657 0701 C5.2 SF 7912 S10E27 III 0735 0743 0756 B9.5 III 1045 1116 1226 SN 7910 S09W09 V 1329 1407 1414 C2.3 1F 7912 S10E23 III NOTES: All times are in Universal Time (UT). Characters preceding begin, max, and end times are defined as: B = Before, U = Uncertain, A = After. All times associated with x-ray flares (ex. flares which produce associated x-ray bursts) refer to the begin, max, and end times of the x-rays. Flares which are not associated with x-ray signatures use the optical observations to determine the begin, max, and end times. Acronyms used to identify sweeps and optical phenomena include: II = Type II Sweep Frequency Event III = Type III Sweep IV = Type IV Sweep V = Type V Sweep Continuum = Continuum Radio Event Loop = Loop Prominence System, Spray = Limb Spray, Surge = Bright Limb Surge, EPL = Eruptive Prominence on the Limb. ** End of Daily Report ** /\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\ DAILY SUMMARY OF SOLAR GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY 16 OCTOBER, 1995 /\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\ (Based In-Part On SESC Observational Data) SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY INDICES FOR 16 OCTOBER, 1995 ----------------------------------------------------------- NOTE: The greater than 2 MeV electron fluence was moderate today. !!BEGIN!! (1.0) S.T.D. Solar Geophysical Data Broadcast for DAY 289, 10/16/95 10.7 FLUX=085.6 90-AVG=074 SSN=067 BKI=1311 2221 BAI=006 BGND-XRAY=A4.3 FLU1=1.0E+06 FLU10=1.8E+04 PKI=1212 2222 PAI=006 BOU-DEV=005,025,008,009,013,013,010,005 DEV-AVG=011 NT SWF=00:000 XRAY-MAX= B1.5 @ 1342UT XRAY-MIN= A3.0 @ 0442UT XRAY-AVG= A5.6 NEUTN-MAX= +001% @ 2030UT NEUTN-MIN= -002% @ 1615UT NEUTN-AVG= +0.0% PCA-MAX= +0.1DB @ 1240UT PCA-MIN= -0.5DB @ 1450UT PCA-AVG= -0.0DB BOUTF-MAX=55185NT @ 1108UT BOUTF-MIN=55170NT @ 1623UT BOUTF-AVG=55180NT GOES7-MAX=P:+000NT@ 0000UT GOES7-MIN=N:+000NT@ 0000UT G7-AVG=+070,+000,+000 GOES6-MAX=P:+000NT@ 0000UT GOES6-MIN=N:+000NT@ 0000UT G6-AVG=+000,+000,+000 FLUXFCST=STD:086,086,084;SESC:086,086,084 BAI/PAI-FCST=015,015,020/020,020,025 KFCST=2124 4222 2104 3222 27DAY-AP=004,008 27DAY-KP=1111 1111 2232 2213 WARNINGS=*GSTRM;*AURMIDWCH ALERTS= !!END-DATA!! NOTE: The Effective Sunspot Number for 15 OCT 95 was 12.6. The Full Kp Indices for 16 OCT 95 are: 1+ 2o 1+ 2- 2o 2- 2+ 2- The 3-Hr Ap Indices for 16 OCT 95 are: 5 9 5 6 7 7 9 7 Greater than 2 MeV Electron Fluence for 16 OCT is: 1.1E+08 DRAO 10.7 cm Solar Radio Flux at 18Z, 20Z, 22Z: 84.9, 85.6, 86.2 sfu. SYNOPSIS OF ACTIVITY -------------------- Solar activity was very low. Region 7912 (S10W10) remained relatively stable in growth and activity, producing only a single B1/SF flare. A small filament disappeared from this region also. There were only three other uncorrelated B-class flares detected. Region 7910 (S10W46) remained stable. New Regions 7914 (N08W66) and 7915 (N01W30) were numbered today. Both are small BXO spot groups with little activity. Solar activity forecast: solar activity is expected to be very low to low. Region 7912 still has a small chance of an isolated M-class flare. STD: Solar WIND data was received from 15:15 to 22:49 UTC. Solar wind velocity received from 16:30 to 22:49 UTC was relatively steady at about 310 to 340 km/sec. Density ranged from 15 p/cm^3 at the beginning of the period to almost 40 p/cm^3 near the middle of the period. It then gradually declined to about 25 p/cm^3 by end the of the observing period. Solar wind magnetic field data was received from 15:15 to 20:20 UTC. The Bz IMF component was mostly southward at about -3.5 nT throughout the observation period. The filament which disappeared today from S08W08 between 17:10 and 17:21 UTC measured about 4 degrees in extent. Recent Yohkoh x-ray imagery shows another region of enhanced emissions approaching the northeast limb (most likely a rather small region). The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. The greater than 2 MeV energetic electron flux ranged from moderate to high to normal by the end of the period. Geophysical activity forecast: the geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled for the next 48 hours, then unsettled to active as a coronal hole rotates into a favorable position. Event probabilities 17 oct-19 oct Class M 05/01/01 Class X 01/01/01 Proton 01/01/01 PCAF Green Geomagnetic activity probabilities 17 oct-19 oct A. Middle Latitudes Active 20/25/25 Minor Storm 15/15/15 Major-Severe Storm 05/05/10 B. High Latitudes Active 20/20/20 Minor Storm 15/20/20 Major-Severe Storm 05/05/10 HF propagation conditions remained normal over all regions. The anticipated disturbance from the M4.8 flare of 13 October failed to arrive. The next disturbance expected to influence radio propagation is a coronal-hole related disturbance that should begin degrading polar and high latitude propagation most notably on 19 and 20 October. Until then, near-normal propagation should persist. The threat for SWF's on daylit circuits continues, but is presently relatively low. ENERGETIC ELECTRON FLUENCE 60-DAY HISTORY AT GREATER THAN 2 MEV ------!-------+------------------!----------+--------------- 3.75E+09|......+..... ...... ... ........+ .... ...............|V. HIGH 2.16E+09|......+..... ...... ..V ..V.....+ .... ...............|V. HIGH 1.25E+09|......+..... ...... ..V ..V.....+ .... ....VVV........|V. HIGH 7.18E+08|......+..... ...... ..V .HV.....+ .... ...HVVVVH......|High 4.14E+08|......+..... ...... HHV HHV.....+ .... ...HVVVVH......|Moderate 2.38E+08|......+..... ...... HHV HHVM....+ .... ...HVVVVH..MMM.| 1.37E+08|......+..... ...... HHV HHVM..MM+ .... ...HVVVVHMMMMM.| 7.92E+07|......+..... ...... HHV HHVMM.MM+ .... ...HVVVVHMMMMMM| 4.56E+07|......+..... ...... HHV HHVMMMMM+ .... ...HVVVVHMMMMMM|Normal 2.63E+07|.N..N.+.NN.. ...... HHV HHVMMMMM+ .... .NNHVVVVHMMMMMM| 1.52E+07|NNNNN.+.NNN. ...... HHV HHVMMMMMn .... .NNHVVVVHMMMMMM| 8.74E+06|NNNNN.+.NNN. ...... HHV HHVMMMMMn NN.. .NNHVVVVHMMMMMM| 5.04E+06|NNNNN.+.NNNN NNN... HHV HHVMMMMMn NNN. .NNHVVVVHMMMMMM| 2.91E+06|NNNNNNnNNNNN NNN... HHV HHVMMMMMn NNNN NNNHVVVVHMMMMMM| 1.68E+06|NNNNNNnNNNNN NNNNNN HHV HHVMMMMMn NNNN NNNHVVVVHMMMMMM| 9.73E+05|NNNNNNnNNNNN NNNNNN HHV HHVMMMMMn NNNN NNNHVVVVHMMMMMM| ------!-------+------------------!----------+--------------- Sep Oct NOTES: "V" = Very High Fluence, "H" = High Fluence, etc, " " = No Data, "!" = Solar rotational boundary periods from current date. Electron fluence is flux integrated over time in units of cm^-2 day^-1 sr^-1 as measured by GOES-8. Fluence values that are moderate or higher have been correlated with satellite anomalies. Sustained high to very high fluence has been correlated with serious malfunctions. COPIES OF JOINT USAF/NOAA SESC SOLAR GEOPHYSICAL REPORTS ======================================================== REGIONS WITH SUNSPOTS. LOCATIONS VALID AT 16/2400Z OCTOBER ---------------------------------------------------------- NMBR LOCATION LO AREA Z LL NN MAG TYPE 7910 S10W46 179 0120 HSX 03 003 ALPHA 7912 S10W10 143 0230 CAO 10 015 BETA 7914 N08W66 199 0010 BXO 03 005 BETA 7915 N01W30 163 0010 BXO 03 004 BETA 7913 S18W24 157 PLAGE REGIONS DUE TO RETURN 17 OCTOBER TO 19 OCTOBER NMBR LAT LO NONE LISTING OF SOLAR ENERGETIC EVENTS FOR 16 OCTOBER, 1995 ------------------------------------------------------ BEGIN MAX END RGN LOC XRAY OP 245MHZ 10CM SWEEP NONE POSSIBLE CORONAL MASS EJECTION EVENTS FOR 16 OCTOBER, 1995 ---------------------------------------------------------- BEGIN MAX END LOCATION TYPE SIZE DUR II IV 16/ 1710 A1721 S08W08 DSF INFERRED CORONAL HOLES. LOCATIONS VALID AT 16/2400Z --------------------------------------------------- ISOLATED HOLES AND POLAR EXTENSIONS EAST SOUTH WEST NORTH CAR TYPE POL AREA OBSN 80 S07E09 S11W02 N35W43 N35W43 149 ISO POS 015 10830A SUMMARY OF FLARE EVENTS FOR THE PREVIOUS UTC DAY ------------------------------------------------ Date Begin Max End Xray Op Region Locn 2695 MHz 8800 MHz 15.4 GHz ------ ---- ---- ---- ---- -- ------ ------ --------- --------- --------- 14 Oct: 0036 0047 0056 B4.2 0142 0149 0155 C1.3 0222 0228 0231 C1.4 0517 0520 0523 B1.2 0651 0657 0701 C5.2 SF 7912 S10E27 22 0735 0743 0756 B9.5 0920 0924 0926 C1.6 SF 7912 S07E25 0949 0952 1007 C1.6 1045 1116 1226 SN 7910 S09W09 1232 1235 1245 SF 7912 S13E18 1329 1407 1414 C2.3 1F 7912 S10E23 1532 1535 1538 B3.7 1539 1543 1545 B4.4 1717 1722 1728 B6.8 SF 7912 S10E21 1815 1819 1823 B3.0 SF 7912 S10E22 1919 1927 1932 C1.9 SF 7912 S12E16 2354 2358 0002 B4.6 15 Oct: 0056 0103 0107 B6.1 SF 7912 S10E13 0247 0257 0303 B5.4 0448 0453 0500 B1.9 0639 0643 0646 B1.3 0714 0718 0727 B1.7 0830 0846 0859 B1.6 1203 1216 1234 B2.4 REGION FLARE STATISTICS FOR THE PREVIOUS UTC DAY ------------------------------------------------ C M X S 1 2 3 4 Total (%) -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- --- ------ Region 7910: 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 001 ( 4.2) Region 7912: 4 0 0 7 1 0 0 0 008 (33.3) Uncorrellated: 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 015 (62.5) Total Events: 024 optical and x-ray. EVENTS WITH SWEEPS AND/OR OPTICAL PHENOMENA FOR THE LAST UTC DAY ---------------------------------------------------------------- Date Begin Max End Xray Op Region Locn Sweeps/Optical Observations ------ ---- ---- ---- ---- -- ------ ------ --------------------------- 14 Oct: 0517 0520 0523 B1.2 III 0651 0657 0701 C5.2 SF 7912 S10E27 III 0735 0743 0756 B9.5 III 1045 1116 1226 SN 7910 S09W09 V 1329 1407 1414 C2.3 1F 7912 S10E23 III 15 Oct: 0056 0103 0107 B6.1 SF 7912 S10E13 III NOTES: All times are in Universal Time (UT). Characters preceding begin, max, and end times are defined as: B = Before, U = Uncertain, A = After. All times associated with x-ray flares (ex. flares which produce associated x-ray bursts) refer to the begin, max, and end times of the x-rays. Flares which are not associated with x-ray signatures use the optical observations to determine the begin, max, and end times. Acronyms used to identify sweeps and optical phenomena include: II = Type II Sweep Frequency Event III = Type III Sweep IV = Type IV Sweep V = Type V Sweep Continuum = Continuum Radio Event Loop = Loop Prominence System, Spray = Limb Spray, Surge = Bright Limb Surge, EPL = Eruptive Prominence on the Limb. ** End of Daily Report ** /\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\ DAILY SUMMARY OF SOLAR GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY 17 OCTOBER, 1995 /\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\ (Based In-Part On SESC Observational Data) SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY INDICES FOR 17 OCTOBER, 1995 ----------------------------------------------------------- !!BEGIN!! (1.0) S.T.D. Solar Geophysical Data Broadcast for DAY 290, 10/17/95 10.7 FLUX=084.6 90-AVG=074 SSN=055 BKI=2332 2210 BAI=007 BGND-XRAY=A4.3 FLU1=1.9E+05 FLU10=1.7E+04 PKI=2342 2221 PAI=012 BOU-DEV=015,***,033,014,017,015,007,003 DEV-AVG=015 NT SWF=00:000 XRAY-MAX= B2.1 @ 1211UT XRAY-MIN= A4.0 @ 0147UT XRAY-AVG= A5.8 NEUTN-MAX= +000% @ 1955UT NEUTN-MIN= -003% @ 1325UT NEUTN-AVG= -0.8% PCA-MAX= +0.0DB @ 1500UT PCA-MIN= -0.3DB @ 1145UT PCA-AVG= -0.0DB BOUTF-MAX=55184NT @ 1315UT BOUTF-MIN=55167NT @ 1823UT BOUTF-AVG=55179NT GOES7-MAX=P:+000NT@ 0000UT GOES7-MIN=N:+000NT@ 0000UT G7-AVG=+059,+000,+000 GOES6-MAX=P:+000NT@ 0000UT GOES6-MIN=N:+000NT@ 0000UT G6-AVG=+000,+000,+000 FLUXFCST=STD:084,082,082;SESC:084,082,082 BAI/PAI-FCST=015,020,020/020,020,020 KFCST=2213 3222 2114 4222 27DAY-AP=008,008 27DAY-KP=2232 2213 2232 2213 WARNINGS=*GSTRM;*AURMIDWCH ALERTS= !!END-DATA!! NOTE: The Effective Sunspot Number for 16 OCT 95 was 19.0. The Full Kp Indices for 17 OCT 95 are: 2+ 3- 4- 2- 2+ 2o 2o 1+ The 3-Hr Ap Indices for 17 OCT 95 are: 9 14 21 6 9 8 7 5 Greater than 2 MeV Electron Fluence for 17 OCT is: 6.6E+06 DRAO 10.7 cm Solar Radio Flux at 18Z, 20Z, 22Z: 84.7, 84.6, 85.7 sfu. SYNOPSIS OF ACTIVITY -------------------- Solar activity was very low. There was no flare activity of significance. Most regions on the visible disk remained stable and relatively quiet. New Region 7916 (S02W14) was numbered today. Solar activity forecast: solar activity is expected to be very low. Region 7912 (S10W25) has the best chance of producing C-class flare activity. STD: Solar WIND data received from 07:20 to 15:20 UTC indicated a solar wind velocity that ranged from 270 to 340 km/sec. Density varied between 10 and 20 p/cm^3 and the Bz IMF component was mostly southward, varying from 0 to -6 nT. However, it turned northward to about +6 nT by the end of the period. A 5-degree filament disappeared at S20W32 between 16:50 and 17:09 UTC (near Region 7913). The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Short periods of active levels were observed at high latitudes. Geophysical activity forecast: the geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled for the next 24 hours, then unsettled to active as a new coronal hole moves into favorable position. Event probabilities 18 oct-20 oct Class M 01/01/01 Class X 01/01/01 Proton 01/01/01 PCAF Green Geomagnetic activity probabilities 18 oct-20 oct A. Middle Latitudes Active 20/25/35 Minor Storm 15/15/15 Major-Severe Storm 05/10/10 B. High Latitudes Active 20/25/30 Minor Storm 20/20/20 Major-Severe Storm 05/10/10 HF propagation conditions were normal over all regions. Near-normal propagation is expected to continue over the next 24 hours and become gradually degraded by 20 October due to effects from a coronal hole. ENERGETIC ELECTRON FLUENCE 60-DAY HISTORY AT GREATER THAN 2 MEV ------!------+-------------------!---------+---------------- 3.75E+09|......+.... ...... ... ......... .... ................|V. HIGH 2.16E+09|......+.... ...... ..V ..V...... .... ................|V. HIGH 1.25E+09|......+.... ...... ..V ..V...... .... ....VVV.........|V. HIGH 7.18E+08|......+.... ...... ..V .HV...... .... ...HVVVVH.......|High 4.14E+08|......+.... ...... HHV HHV...... .... ...HVVVVH.......|Moderate 2.38E+08|......+.... ...... HHV HHVM..... .... ...HVVVVH..MMM..| 1.37E+08|......+.... ...... HHV HHVM..MM. .... ...HVVVVHMMMMM..| 7.92E+07|......+.... ...... HHV HHVMM.MM. .... ...HVVVVHMMMMMM.| 4.56E+07|......+.... ...... HHV HHVMMMMM. .... ...HVVVVHMMMMMM.|Normal 2.63E+07|N..N..+NN.. ...... HHV HHVMMMMM. .... .NNHVVVVHMMMMMM.| 1.52E+07|NNNN..+NNN. ...... HHV HHVMMMMMN .... .NNHVVVVHMMMMMM.| 8.74E+06|NNNN..+NNN. ...... HHV HHVMMMMMN NN.. .NNHVVVVHMMMMMM.| 5.04E+06|NNNN..+NNNN NNN... HHV HHVMMMMMN NNN. .NNHVVVVHMMMMMMN| 2.91E+06|NNNNNNnNNNN NNN... HHV HHVMMMMMN NNNN NNNHVVVVHMMMMMMN| 1.68E+06|NNNNNNnNNNN NNNNNN HHV HHVMMMMMN NNNN NNNHVVVVHMMMMMMN| 9.73E+05|NNNNNNnNNNN NNNNNN HHV HHVMMMMMN NNNN NNNHVVVVHMMMMMMN| ------!------+-------------------!---------+---------------- Sep Oct NOTES: "V" = Very High Fluence, "H" = High Fluence, etc, " " = No Data, "!" = Solar rotational boundary periods from current date. Electron fluence is flux integrated over time in units of cm^-2 day^-1 sr^-1 as measured by GOES-8. Fluence values that are moderate or higher have been correlated with satellite anomalies. Sustained high to very high fluence has been correlated with serious malfunctions. COPIES OF JOINT USAF/NOAA SESC SOLAR GEOPHYSICAL REPORTS ======================================================== REGIONS WITH SUNSPOTS. LOCATIONS VALID AT 17/2400Z OCTOBER ---------------------------------------------------------- NMBR LOCATION LO AREA Z LL NN MAG TYPE 7910 S10W60 180 0110 HSX 02 001 ALPHA 7912 S10W25 145 0240 CAO 08 010 BETA 7914 N08W83 203 0030 HSX 01 001 ALPHA 7916 S02W14 134 0010 BXO 02 003 BETA 7913 S18W37 157 PLAGE 7915 N01W43 163 PLAGE REGIONS DUE TO RETURN 18 OCTOBER TO 20 OCTOBER NMBR LAT LO NONE LISTING OF SOLAR ENERGETIC EVENTS FOR 17 OCTOBER, 1995 ------------------------------------------------------ BEGIN MAX END RGN LOC XRAY OP 245MHZ 10CM SWEEP NONE POSSIBLE CORONAL MASS EJECTION EVENTS FOR 17 OCTOBER, 1995 ---------------------------------------------------------- BEGIN MAX END LOCATION TYPE SIZE DUR II IV 17/A1650 A1709 S20W32 DSF INFERRED CORONAL HOLES. LOCATIONS VALID AT 17/2400Z --------------------------------------------------- ISOLATED HOLES AND POLAR EXTENSIONS EAST SOUTH WEST NORTH CAR TYPE POL AREA OBSN 80 N17W10 N03W20 N10W24 N36W17 141 ISO POS 006 10830A SUMMARY OF FLARE EVENTS FOR THE PREVIOUS UTC DAY ------------------------------------------------ Date Begin Max End Xray Op Region Locn 2695 MHz 8800 MHz 15.4 GHz ------ ---- ---- ---- ---- -- ------ ------ --------- --------- --------- 15 Oct: 0056 0103 0107 B6.1 SF 7912 S10E13 0247 0257 0303 B5.4 0448 0453 0500 B1.9 0639 0643 0646 B1.3 0714 0718 0727 B1.7 0830 0846 0859 B1.6 1203 1216 1234 B2.4 16 Oct: 1221 1225 1231 SF N09W54 1250 1256 1300 B1.3 SF 7912 S09W06 1335 1342 1355 B1.5 1836 1840 1842 B1.1 1916 1919 1921 B1.2 REGION FLARE STATISTICS FOR THE PREVIOUS UTC DAY ------------------------------------------------ C M X S 1 2 3 4 Total (%) -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- --- ------ Region 7912: 0 0 0 2 0 0 0 0 002 (16.7) Uncorrellated: 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 010 (83.3) Total Events: 012 optical and x-ray. EVENTS WITH SWEEPS AND/OR OPTICAL PHENOMENA FOR THE LAST UTC DAY ---------------------------------------------------------------- Date Begin Max End Xray Op Region Locn Sweeps/Optical Observations ------ ---- ---- ---- ---- -- ------ ------ --------------------------- 15 Oct: 0056 0103 0107 B6.1 SF 7912 S10E13 III 16 Oct: 1836 1840 1842 B1.1 III NOTES: All times are in Universal Time (UT). Characters preceding begin, max, and end times are defined as: B = Before, U = Uncertain, A = After. All times associated with x-ray flares (ex. flares which produce associated x-ray bursts) refer to the begin, max, and end times of the x-rays. Flares which are not associated with x-ray signatures use the optical observations to determine the begin, max, and end times. Acronyms used to identify sweeps and optical phenomena include: II = Type II Sweep Frequency Event III = Type III Sweep IV = Type IV Sweep V = Type V Sweep Continuum = Continuum Radio Event Loop = Loop Prominence System, Spray = Limb Spray, Surge = Bright Limb Surge, EPL = Eruptive Prominence on the Limb. ** End of Daily Report ** /\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\ DAILY SUMMARY OF SOLAR GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY 18 OCTOBER, 1995 /\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\ (Based In-Part On SESC Observational Data) SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY INDICES FOR 18 OCTOBER, 1995 ----------------------------------------------------------- !!BEGIN!! (1.0) S.T.D. Solar Geophysical Data Broadcast for DAY 291, 10/18/95 10.7 FLUX=081.5 90-AVG=074 SSN=043 BKI=2324 3344 BAI=017 BGND-XRAY=A5.3 FLU1=1.2E+06 FLU10=1.7E+04 PKI=2213 3346 PAI=024 BOU-DEV=015,021,018,045,031,033,068,063 DEV-AVG=036 NT SWF=00:000 XRAY-MAX= B2.9 @ 2339UT XRAY-MIN= A2.3 @ 1837UT XRAY-AVG= A6.2 NEUTN-MAX= +001% @ 1225UT NEUTN-MIN= -003% @ 1935UT NEUTN-AVG= -0.7% PCA-MAX= +0.1DB @ 1230UT PCA-MIN= -0.3DB @ 1400UT PCA-AVG= -0.0DB BOUTF-MAX=55234NT @ 2355UT BOUTF-MIN=55158NT @ 2105UT BOUTF-AVG=55178NT GOES7-MAX=P:+000NT@ 0000UT GOES7-MIN=N:+000NT@ 0000UT G7-AVG=+062,+000,+000 GOES6-MAX=P:+000NT@ 0000UT GOES6-MIN=N:+000NT@ 0000UT G6-AVG=+000,+000,+000 FLUXFCST=STD:082,082,080;SESC:082,082,080 BAI/PAI-FCST=020,020,015/025,020,015 KFCST=3225 4233 2225 4222 27DAY-AP=008,004 27DAY-KP=2232 2213 1001 2222 WARNINGS=*GSTRM;*AURMIDWRN ALERTS=**MAGSI:32NT@1121UTC !!END-DATA!! NOTE: The Effective Sunspot Number for 17 OCT 95 was 17.3. The Full Kp Indices for 18 OCT 95 are: 2+ 2o 1+ 3+ 3+ 3+ 4o 6+ The 3-Hr Ap Indices for 18 OCT 95 are: 10 8 5 17 17 20 30 96 Greater than 2 MeV Electron Fluence for 18 OCT is: 3.6E+06 DRAO 10.7 cm Solar Radio Flux at 18Z, 20Z, 22Z: 81.9, 81.5, 81.3 sfu. SYNOPSIS OF ACTIVITY -------------------- Solar activity was very low. Region 7912 (S10W37) produced only a single B1/SF flare at 18/1959Z. Five other uncorrelated B-class x-ray bursts were observed as well. This region, along with Regions 7910 (S10W73) and 7916 (S02W26), remained stable and relatively quiet. Solar activity forecast: solar activity is expected to be very low. STD: Three relatively small filaments disappeared today. The first measured 7 degrees and was located at S12W35. The second measured 6 degrees and was located at S17W47. And the third filament measured 9 degrees and was located at S30E20. STD: Some interesting solar WIND data was received today between 15:15 and 23:45 UTC. Solar wind densities varied strongly between 25 and 75 p/cm^3 from 15:15 until about 19:00 UTC. During this same time-period, the Bz IMF component showed fairly wide north/south fluctuations varying from -10 nT to +20 nT with a general northward trend. At about 19:00 UTC, solar wind density dropped rapidly to about 3 p/cm^3 and the Bz IMF turned suddenly strongly southward to -20 nT. The density and Bz intensity remained at these levels for the remainder of the observation period. Solar wind velocity throughout the period was relatively steady at between 400 and 450 km/sec. The leading edge of this disturbance was shocked, as indicated by the sudden commencement that measured 32 nT at Boulder at 11:21 UTC. Ground-based geomagnetic field measurements from that time onward were substantially more active than prior to the shock. Data to date suggests perhaps a shock-driven coronal mass ejection (origin uncertain, possibly one of the recent disappearing filaments) was imbedded near the leading edge of the well-placed coronal hole stream. The data also fits fairly well with a scenario where a sector boundary exists near the leading edge of a coronal hole stream. A compression region may have formed between the sector boundary and the stream interface, giving the high densities and intensified north/south Bz IMF values. The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. High latitude stations observed short periods of minor storming. Activity may be the result of a favorably positioned coronal hole. The greater than 2 MeV energetic electron flux was mostly normal to moderate, but crossed the high flux threshhold for a short period at 18/1329Z. Geophysical activity forecast: the geomagnetic field is expected to be unsettled to active for the next 48 hours. Activity is expected to diminish to mostly unsettled by day 3. High latitudes should expect periods of minor to major storming for the next two days and periods of active levels on day 3. Event probabilities 19 oct-21 oct Class M 01/01/01 Class X 01/01/01 Proton 01/01/01 PCAF Green Geomagnetic activity probabilities 19 oct-21 oct A. Middle Latitudes Active 25/30/20 Minor Storm 15/20/15 Major-Severe Storm 10/10/05 B. High Latitudes Active 30/30/25 Minor Storm 20/20/20 Major-Severe Storm 10/10/05 HF propagation conditions were normal over all regions until after approximately 18:00 UTC. The arrival of a solar disturbance (origin is uncertain) at 11:21 UTC was followed several hours later by intensified levels of geomagnetic and auroral activity. By the end of the UTC day, propagation had become moderately degraded (poor to very poor) on high and polar latitude paths and slightly degraded on middle latitude paths. Propagation is expected to become frequently useless on transpolar and transauroral night-sector circuits over the next 12 to 24 hours. Middle latitude paths are expected to see periods of poor to very poor propagation. North-south circuits will be more reliable than east-west circuits, provided the circuits do not cross through the auroral zones. Expect strong fading, moderate absorption, and fairly strong multipathing to affect transauroral and transpolar circuits. Low and equatorial regions should see near-normal to slightly below-normal conditions throughout the next 24 hours. Propagation elsewhere is not expected to improve until at least 20 or 21 October. Slight improvements on higher latitude paths may be observed later on 19 and particularly on 20 October. ENERGETIC ELECTRON FLUENCE 60-DAY HISTORY AT GREATER THAN 2 MEV ------!-----+--------------------!--------+----------------- 3.75E+09|......+... ...... ... ......... .... .................|V. HIGH 2.16E+09|......+... ...... ..V ..V...... .... .................|V. HIGH 1.25E+09|......+... ...... ..V ..V...... .... ....VVV..........|V. HIGH 7.18E+08|......+... ...... ..V .HV...... .... ...HVVVVH........|High 4.14E+08|......+... ...... HHV HHV...... .... ...HVVVVH........|Moderate 2.38E+08|......+... ...... HHV HHVM..... .... ...HVVVVH..MMM...| 1.37E+08|......+... ...... HHV HHVM..MM. .... ...HVVVVHMMMMM...| 7.92E+07|......+... ...... HHV HHVMM.MM. .... ...HVVVVHMMMMMM..| 4.56E+07|......+... ...... HHV HHVMMMMM. .... ...HVVVVHMMMMMM..|Normal 2.63E+07|..N...nN.. ...... HHV HHVMMMMM. .... .NNHVVVVHMMMMMM..| 1.52E+07|NNN...nNN. ...... HHV HHVMMMMMN .... .NNHVVVVHMMMMMM..| 8.74E+06|NNN...nNN. ...... HHV HHVMMMMMN NN.. .NNHVVVVHMMMMMM..| 5.04E+06|NNN...nNNN NNN... HHV HHVMMMMMN NNN. .NNHVVVVHMMMMMMN.| 2.91E+06|NNNNNNnNNN NNN... HHV HHVMMMMMN NNNN NNNHVVVVHMMMMMMNN| 1.68E+06|NNNNNNnNNN NNNNNN HHV HHVMMMMMN NNNN NNNHVVVVHMMMMMMNN| 9.73E+05|NNNNNNnNNN NNNNNN HHV HHVMMMMMN NNNN NNNHVVVVHMMMMMMNN| ------!-----+--------------------!--------+----------------- Sep Oct NOTES: "V" = Very High Fluence, "H" = High Fluence, etc, " " = No Data, "!" = Solar rotational boundary periods from current date. Electron fluence is flux integrated over time in units of cm^-2 day^-1 sr^-1 as measured by GOES-8. Fluence values that are moderate or higher have been correlated with satellite anomalies. Sustained high to very high fluence has been correlated with serious malfunctions. COPIES OF JOINT USAF/NOAA SESC SOLAR GEOPHYSICAL REPORTS ======================================================== REGIONS WITH SUNSPOTS. LOCATIONS VALID AT 18/2400Z OCTOBER ---------------------------------------------------------- NMBR LOCATION LO AREA Z LL NN MAG TYPE 7910 S10W73 180 0100 HSX 02 001 ALPHA 7912 S10W37 144 0240 CAO 09 009 BETA 7916 S02W26 133 0010 BXO 03 003 BETA 7913 S18W50 157 PLAGE 7915 N01W56 163 PLAGE REGIONS DUE TO RETURN 19 OCTOBER TO 21 OCTOBER NMBR LAT LO NONE LISTING OF SOLAR ENERGETIC EVENTS FOR 18 OCTOBER, 1995 ------------------------------------------------------ BEGIN MAX END RGN LOC XRAY OP 245MHZ 10CM SWEEP NONE POSSIBLE CORONAL MASS EJECTION EVENTS FOR 18 OCTOBER, 1995 ---------------------------------------------------------- BEGIN MAX END LOCATION TYPE SIZE DUR II IV 18/ 1343 1411 S12W35 DSF 18/ 1500 1550 S17W47 DSF 18/A2300 19/B1355 S30E20 DSF INFERRED CORONAL HOLES. LOCATIONS VALID AT 18/2400Z --------------------------------------------------- ISOLATED HOLES AND POLAR EXTENSIONS EAST SOUTH WEST NORTH CAR TYPE POL AREA OBSN 80 N24W29 N00W34 N18W39 N25W33 145 ISO POS 004 10830A SUMMARY OF FLARE EVENTS FOR THE PREVIOUS UTC DAY ------------------------------------------------ Date Begin Max End Xray Op Region Locn 2695 MHz 8800 MHz 15.4 GHz ------ ---- ---- ---- ---- -- ------ ------ --------- --------- --------- 16 Oct: 1221 1225 1231 SF N09W54 1250 1256 1300 B1.3 SF 7912 S09W06 1335 1342 1355 B1.5 1836 1840 1842 B1.1 1916 1919 1921 B1.2 17 Oct: 0107 0110 0112 B1.0 1204 1211 1221 B2.1 1721 1725 1728 B1.1 2323 2328 2340 B1.3 REGION FLARE STATISTICS FOR THE PREVIOUS UTC DAY ------------------------------------------------ C M X S 1 2 3 4 Total (%) -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- --- ------ Region 7912: 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 001 (11.1) Uncorrellated: 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 008 (88.9) Total Events: 009 optical and x-ray. EVENTS WITH SWEEPS AND/OR OPTICAL PHENOMENA FOR THE LAST UTC DAY ---------------------------------------------------------------- Date Begin Max End Xray Op Region Locn Sweeps/Optical Observations ------ ---- ---- ---- ---- -- ------ ------ --------------------------- 16 Oct: 1836 1840 1842 B1.1 III 17 Oct: 1721 1725 1728 B1.1 III NOTES: All times are in Universal Time (UT). Characters preceding begin, max, and end times are defined as: B = Before, U = Uncertain, A = After. All times associated with x-ray flares (ex. flares which produce associated x-ray bursts) refer to the begin, max, and end times of the x-rays. Flares which are not associated with x-ray signatures use the optical observations to determine the begin, max, and end times. Acronyms used to identify sweeps and optical phenomena include: II = Type II Sweep Frequency Event III = Type III Sweep IV = Type IV Sweep V = Type V Sweep Continuum = Continuum Radio Event Loop = Loop Prominence System, Spray = Limb Spray, Surge = Bright Limb Surge, EPL = Eruptive Prominence on the Limb. ** End of Daily Report ** /\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\ DAILY SUMMARY OF SOLAR GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY 19 OCTOBER, 1995 /\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\ (Based In-Part On SESC Observational Data) SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY INDICES FOR 19 OCTOBER, 1995 ----------------------------------------------------------- !!BEGIN!! (1.0) S.T.D. Solar Geophysical Data Broadcast for DAY 292, 10/19/95 10.7 FLUX=080.5 90-AVG=074 SSN=029 BKI=5653 2023 BAI=027 BGND-XRAY=A5.7 FLU1=1.3E+06 FLU10=1.5E+04 PKI=6664 2233 PAI=036 BOU-DEV=073,122,076,039,017,004,010,036 DEV-AVG=047 NT SWF=00:000 XRAY-MAX= B3.2 @ 1031UT XRAY-MIN= A4.5 @ 0607UT XRAY-AVG= A8.2 NEUTN-MAX= +002% @ 1505UT NEUTN-MIN= -004% @ 1720UT NEUTN-AVG= -0.8% PCA-MAX= +0.1DB @ 1510UT PCA-MIN= -0.2DB @ 1430UT PCA-AVG= -0.0DB BOUTF-MAX=55234NT @ 0005UT BOUTF-MIN=55160NT @ 0430UT BOUTF-AVG=55181NT GOES7-MAX=P:+000NT@ 0000UT GOES7-MIN=N:+000NT@ 0000UT G7-AVG=+067,+000,+000 GOES6-MAX=P:+000NT@ 0000UT GOES6-MIN=N:+000NT@ 0000UT G6-AVG=+000,+000,+000 FLUXFCST=STD:080,080,080;SESC:080,080,080 BAI/PAI-FCST=020,015,010/035,025,020 KFCST=2445 5432 3334 4333 27DAY-AP=004,012 27DAY-KP=1001 2222 4202 4332 WARNINGS=*GSTRM;*AURMIDWRN ALERTS= !!END-DATA!! NOTE: The Effective Sunspot Number for 18 OCT 95 was 19.1. The Full Kp Indices for 19 OCT 95 are: 6o 6o 6- 4- 2+ 2o 3o 3o The 3-Hr Ap Indices for 19 OCT 95 are: 83 76 63 24 10 8 16 15 Greater than 2 MeV Electron Fluence for 19 OCT is: 4.1E+07 DRAO 10.7 cm Solar Radio Flux at 18Z, 20Z, 22Z: 80.2, 80.5, 81.3 sfu. SYNOPSIS OF ACTIVITY -------------------- Solar activity was very low. Region 7912 (S11W51) produced occasional activity, with a single B3/SF flare at 19/1030Z. Two spotted regions remain on the disk, 7912 and 7910 (S10W87). Solar activity forecast: solar activity is expected to be very low. STD ALERT: A class M1.5 tenflare observed at 20/06:12 UTC has succeeded in accellerating protons at greater than 10 and 100 MeV. Protons at greater than 100 MeV remain only very slightly enhanced above background levels and have held fairly constant at 0.1 pfu. Protons at greater than 10 MeV are above event levels and are presently at 27 pfu at 20/09:30 UTC. Polar Cap Absorption is increasing over polar regions and VLF anomalies are also being recorded on polar paths. This flare was an LDE (long duration event) with a slow rise and exponentially slow fall time (a typical proton-producing x-ray signature). It was associated with both Type II and IV sweeps. The flare was located within Region 7912 at S13W51. Protons are expected to stabilize and fall somewhat over the next several hours but may remain enhanced well above background levels for the next 24 to 48 hours. More details will be presented in tommorrows report. Solar WIND data for the 19th was observed between 16:00 and 20:00 UTC. Solar wind velocity remained steady at between 390 and 420 km/sec. Density increased steadily throughout the period from 13 p/cm^3 early in the period to 49 p/cm^3. The Bz IMF component began the period northward near +14 nT. It then intensified to +28 nT at 18:22, almost precisely coinciding with a weak sudden magnetic impulse observed at Boulder measuring 9 nT at 18:23 UTC. The Bz component then fell back down to +22 nT by the end of the reporting period. Active surging was reported on the southeast limb near S09E85 between 14:33 and 16:30 UTC. Recent Yohkoh x-ray imagery shows another region approaching the northeast solar limb. The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to major storm levels for the past 24 hours at middle latitudes. A single severe storm interval was observed at high latitudes. A sudden impulse with a deflection of 8 nT was observed at Boulder at 19/1823Z. The greater than 2 MeV electrons have been at high levels for the majority of the reporting period. Solar WIND data suggests the disturbance to be of the transient nature. Geophysical activity forecast: the geomagnetic field is expected to be active to minor storm for the next 24 hours due to an expected coronal hole, and unsettled to active for the following 48 hours. STD: This forecast will be revised tommorrow to possibly include effects of the M1.5 proton flare of 20 October. Event probabilities 20 oct-22 oct Class M 01/01/01 Class X 01/01/01 Proton 01/01/01 PCAF Green Geomagnetic activity probabilities 20 oct-22 oct A. Middle Latitudes Active 25/20/25 Minor Storm 15/15/15 Major-Severe Storm 15/10/10 B. High Latitudes Active 30/30/25 Minor Storm 30/30/15 Major-Severe Storm 15/15/05 HF propagation conditions were below-normal over the upper-middle to polar latitude regions. Central middle to equatorial paths were near-normal to slightly below normal. MUFs have been depressed by 15 to 35 percent on a global basis. The geomagnetic and auroral activity responsible for this degradation is expected to subside slightly over the next 24 hours. However, on 22 October, effects from the very recent M1.5 proton flare may further degrade propagation. Radio communicators using polar paths should be aware of the increased absorption which presently exists due to arriving energetic solar protons from the M1.5 proton flare. Navigators using VLF frequencies on polar paths should be aware that errors exist on navigational frequencies. The M1.5 flare appears to have been associated with a fairly strong SWF that has lasted approximately 30 minutes to one hour. ENERGETIC ELECTRON FLUENCE 60-DAY HISTORY AT GREATER THAN 2 MEV ------!----+---------------------!-------+------------------ 3.75E+09|......+.. ...... ... ......... .... ..................|V. HIGH 2.16E+09|......+.. ...... ..V ..V...... .... ..................|V. HIGH 1.25E+09|......+.. ...... ..V ..V...... .... ....VVV...........|V. HIGH 7.18E+08|......+.. ...... ..V .HV...... .... ...HVVVVH.........|High 4.14E+08|......+.. ...... HHV HHV...... .... ...HVVVVH.........|Moderate 2.38E+08|......+.. ...... HHV HHVM..... .... ...HVVVVH..MMM....| 1.37E+08|......+.. ...... HHV HHVM..MM. .... ...HVVVVHMMMMM....| 7.92E+07|......+.. ...... HHV HHVMM.MM. .... ...HVVVVHMMMMMM...| 4.56E+07|......+.. ...... HHV HHVMMMMM. .... ...HVVVVHMMMMMM...|Normal 2.63E+07|.N...Nn.. ...... HHV HHVMMMMM. .... .NNHVVVVHMMMMMM..N| 1.52E+07|NN...NnN. ...... HHV HHVMMMMMN .... .NNHVVVVHMMMMMM..N| 8.74E+06|NN...NnN. ...... HHV HHVMMMMMN NN.. .NNHVVVVHMMMMMM..N| 5.04E+06|NN...NnNN NNN... HHV HHVMMMMMN NNN. .NNHVVVVHMMMMMMN.N| 2.91E+06|NNNNNNnNN NNN... HHV HHVMMMMMN NNNN NNNHVVVVHMMMMMMNNN| 1.68E+06|NNNNNNnNN NNNNNN HHV HHVMMMMMN NNNN NNNHVVVVHMMMMMMNNN| 9.73E+05|NNNNNNnNN NNNNNN HHV HHVMMMMMN NNNN NNNHVVVVHMMMMMMNNN| ------!----+---------------------!-------+------------------ Sep Oct NOTES: "V" = Very High Fluence, "H" = High Fluence, etc, " " = No Data, "!" = Solar rotational boundary periods from current date. Electron fluence is flux integrated over time in units of cm^-2 day^-1 sr^-1 as measured by GOES-8. Fluence values that are moderate or higher have been correlated with satellite anomalies. Sustained high to very high fluence has been correlated with serious malfunctions. COPIES OF JOINT USAF/NOAA SESC SOLAR GEOPHYSICAL REPORTS ======================================================== REGIONS WITH SUNSPOTS. LOCATIONS VALID AT 19/2400Z OCTOBER ---------------------------------------------------------- NMBR LOCATION LO AREA Z LL NN MAG TYPE 7910 S10W87 181 0040 HSX 02 001 ALPHA 7912 S11W51 145 0200 CSO 08 008 BETA 7913 S18W63 157 PLAGE 7915 N01W69 163 PLAGE 7916 S02W39 133 PLAGE REGIONS DUE TO RETURN 20 OCTOBER TO 22 OCTOBER NMBR LAT LO NONE LISTING OF SOLAR ENERGETIC EVENTS FOR 19 OCTOBER, 1995 ------------------------------------------------------ BEGIN MAX END RGN LOC XRAY OP 245MHZ 10CM SWEEP 0705 0706 0707 100 1023 1030 1034 7912 S15W44 B3.2 SF 120 POSSIBLE CORONAL MASS EJECTION EVENTS FOR 19 OCTOBER, 1995 ---------------------------------------------------------- BEGIN MAX END LOCATION TYPE SIZE DUR II IV 19/A1102 B1132 S13W44 DSF INFERRED CORONAL HOLES. LOCATIONS VALID AT 19/2400Z --------------------------------------------------- ISOLATED HOLES AND POLAR EXTENSIONS EAST SOUTH WEST NORTH CAR TYPE POL AREA OBSN NO DATA SUMMARY OF FLARE EVENTS FOR THE PREVIOUS UTC DAY ------------------------------------------------ Date Begin Max End Xray Op Region Locn 2695 MHz 8800 MHz 15.4 GHz ------ ---- ---- ---- ---- -- ------ ------ --------- --------- --------- 17 Oct: 0107 0110 0112 B1.0 1204 1211 1221 B2.1 1721 1725 1728 B1.1 2323 2328 2340 B1.3 18 Oct: 0759 0802 0804 B1.0 0826 0830 0833 B1.1 1245 1259 1311 B1.0 1955 1959 2002 B1.2 SF 7912 S15W37 2004 2007 2009 B1.0 REGION FLARE STATISTICS FOR THE PREVIOUS UTC DAY ------------------------------------------------ C M X S 1 2 3 4 Total (%) -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- --- ------ Region 7912: 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 001 (11.1) Uncorrellated: 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 008 (88.9) Total Events: 009 optical and x-ray. EVENTS WITH SWEEPS AND/OR OPTICAL PHENOMENA FOR THE LAST UTC DAY ---------------------------------------------------------------- Date Begin Max End Xray Op Region Locn Sweeps/Optical Observations ------ ---- ---- ---- ---- -- ------ ------ --------------------------- 17 Oct: 1721 1725 1728 B1.1 III 18 Oct: 0759 0802 0804 B1.0 III,V 0826 0830 0833 B1.1 III,V NOTES: All times are in Universal Time (UT). Characters preceding begin, max, and end times are defined as: B = Before, U = Uncertain, A = After. All times associated with x-ray flares (ex. flares which produce associated x-ray bursts) refer to the begin, max, and end times of the x-rays. Flares which are not associated with x-ray signatures use the optical observations to determine the begin, max, and end times. Acronyms used to identify sweeps and optical phenomena include: II = Type II Sweep Frequency Event III = Type III Sweep IV = Type IV Sweep V = Type V Sweep Continuum = Continuum Radio Event Loop = Loop Prominence System, Spray = Limb Spray, Surge = Bright Limb Surge, EPL = Eruptive Prominence on the Limb. ** End of Daily Report ** /\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\ DAILY SUMMARY OF SOLAR GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY 20 OCTOBER, 1995 /\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\ (Based In-Part On SESC Observational Data) SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY INDICES FOR 20 OCTOBER, 1995 ----------------------------------------------------------- !!BEGIN!! (1.0) S.T.D. Solar Geophysical Data Broadcast for DAY 293, 10/20/95 10.7 FLUX=082.5 90-AVG=074 SSN=038 BKI=2634 3432 BAI=024 BGND-XRAY=A6.4 FLU1=*.*E+** FLU10=*.*E+** PKI=2646 4432 PAI=029 BOU-DEV=010,179,030,046,035,048,032,017 DEV-AVG=049 NT SWF=01:059 XRAY-MAX= M1.5 @ 0604UT XRAY-MIN= B1.2 @ 2359UT XRAY-AVG= C1.4 NEUTN-MAX= +002% @ 2325UT NEUTN-MIN= -003% @ 1435UT NEUTN-AVG= -0.2% PCA-MAX= +1.3DB @ 1405UT PCA-MIN= -0.1DB @ 0940UT PCA-AVG= +0.5DB BOUTF-MAX=55185NT @ 0741UT BOUTF-MIN=55159NT @ 0520UT BOUTF-AVG=55176NT GOES7-MAX=P:+000NT@ 0000UT GOES7-MIN=N:+000NT@ 0000UT G7-AVG=+012,+000,+000 GOES6-MAX=P:+000NT@ 0000UT GOES6-MIN=N:+000NT@ 0000UT G6-AVG=+000,+000,+000 FLUXFCST=STD:080,080,078;SESC:080,080,078 BAI/PAI-FCST=015,015,015/025,023,015 KFCST=3334 4333 3334 4433 27DAY-AP=012,009 27DAY-KP=4202 4332 2333 1221 WARNINGS=*GSTRM;*AURMIDWCH ALERTS=**MINFLR:M1.5/SF@0607;**SWEEP:II=3@0605;**SWEEP:IV=2@0554UTC; **PROTN10:BEGIN=0825,MAX=1210@63PFU;**PROEN100; **PCA:BEGIN=0900@1.26DB;**TENFLR:750SFU@0550UTC,DUR=7MINUTES !!END-DATA!! NOTE: The Effective Sunspot Number for 19 OCT 95 was 17.2. The Full Kp Indices for 20 OCT 95 are: 2o 6- 4- 6- 4- 4o 3o 2+ The 3-Hr Ap Indices for 20 OCT 95 are: 7 67 22 70 24 26 17 10 Greater than 2 MeV Electron Fluence for 20 OCT is: 7.5E+07 DRAO 10.7 cm Solar Radio Flux at 18Z, 20Z, 22Z: 82.3, 82.5, 84.0 sfu. SYNOPSIS OF ACTIVITY -------------------- Solar activity was moderate, as Region 7912 (S11W67) produced an M1/SF x-ray event at 0607Z. This event was accompanied by a significant amount of radio activity, including a Type II sweep at 0555Z that extended from 18-120 MHz, with a shock velocity estimated at 1250 km/s, and a Type IV sweep at 0605Z that extended from 20-90 MHz. In addition, a burst magnitude of 750 sfu at 2695 MHz was recorded at 0550Z. Activity since the M1 has primarily consisted of moderate SF and B-class events, with Region 7912 appearing stable at the end of the reporting period. Two new active Regions have rotated onto the disk, 7917 (S09E65) and 7918 (N08E75). Solar activity forecast: solar activity is expected to be very low for the next three days, with no additional events expected from Region 7912 as it continues to stabilize or decay. STD: Solar WIND data was received from 07:30 to 15:30 UTC. Solar wind velocity increased steadily from a low of approximately 440 km/sec early in the period, peaking at near 590 km/sec at 12:25 UTC and then slowly falling to a value of about 520 km/sec at 15:30 UTC. Densities began the period at near 13 p/cm^3, dropped steadily and then levelled off in the 5 to 8 p/cm^3 range for the rest of the observation period. The Bz IMF component fluctuated from a southward -6 to -8 nT range for the first half of the reporting period, then switched northward to between +4 and +7 nT for the remainder of the period. Surging was reported on the northeast limb at N04 and N09. An active prominence was observed from 18:30 to 22:10 UTC by Holloman near N02. Culgoora reported a Herring-bone structure to the strong Type II today, and although the estimated shock speed was 1250 km/sec, it is worth noting that the complexity of the structure of this event has degraded the confidence of the estimated shock speed. The Type IV reported appears to have consisted of a weak and a moderate segment. The weak segment was observed within the 240 to 650 MHz band between 05:55 and 06:05 UTC. The moderate segment was observed within the 90 to 20 MHz band between 06:05 and 06:50 UTC. This event had a fine structure, as confirmed by Culgoora. The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to major storm levels for the past 24 hours at middle latitudes, with a single severe storm interval observed at high latitudes. This activity is likely associated with a coronal hole. A proton event at greater than 10 MeV began at 0825Z, with a maximum intensity of 63 pfu at 1210Z. In addition, a PCA event began near 0900Z, with a peak absorption of 1.26 dB. These events are associated with the flare/CME activity generated within Region 7912. The greater than 2 MeV electrons were at moderate to high levels throughout the reporting period. Geophysical activity forecast: the geomagnetic field is expected to be at unsettled to active levels for the next three days, with no significant activity expected from todays flare/CME and proton events. Event probabilities 21 oct-23 oct Class M 05/05/05 Class X 01/01/01 Proton 01/01/01 PCAF Green Geomagnetic activity probabilities 21 oct-23 oct A. Middle Latitudes Active 25/20/20 Minor Storm 30/25/10 Major-Severe Storm 15/05/05 B. High Latitudes Active 30/25/25 Minor Storm 25/25/15 Major-Severe Storm 25/05/05 HF propagation conditions were near-normal over all but the high and polar latitude regions. Night-sector high and polar latitude paths experienced minor signal degradation until near 09:00 when proton-induced polar cap absorption increased substantially, effectively blacking out polar latitude paths and seriously eroding high latitude transauroral circuits. These conditions persisted over all high and polar latitude paths through the remainder of the day. PCA will begin declining after protons fall below 10 pfu. The process will be gradual however, and hence polar and high latitude circuits may see another full day of near useless or very poor propagation. All other regions should see near-normal to slightly below-normal propagation. Conditions may become degraded on 22 October should effects from todays proton flare arrive. NOTICE: The electron density plot which follows may contain errors for today. The GOES electron sensors can be contaminated by protons. Actual electron fluence was probably near-normal, although the reported value indicates a moderate fluence as a result of proton contamination. ENERGETIC ELECTRON FLUENCE 60-DAY HISTORY AT GREATER THAN 2 MEV ------!---+----------------------!------+------------------- 3.75E+09|......+. ...... ... ......... .... ...................|V. HIGH 2.16E+09|......+. ...... ..V ..V...... .... ...................|V. HIGH 1.25E+09|......+. ...... ..V ..V...... .... ....VVV............|V. HIGH 7.18E+08|......+. ...... ..V .HV...... .... ...HVVVVH..........|High 4.14E+08|......+. ...... HHV HHV...... .... ...HVVVVH..........|Moderate 2.38E+08|......+. ...... HHV HHVM..... .... ...HVVVVH..MMM.....| 1.37E+08|......+. ...... HHV HHVM..MM. .... ...HVVVVHMMMMM.....| 7.92E+07|......+. ...... HHV HHVMM.MM. .... ...HVVVVHMMMMMM....| 4.56E+07|......+. ...... HHV HHVMMMMM. .... ...HVVVVHMMMMMM...M|Normal 2.63E+07|N...NN+. ...... HHV HHVMMMMM. .... .NNHVVVVHMMMMMM..NM| 1.52E+07|N...NNn. ...... HHV HHVMMMMMN .... .NNHVVVVHMMMMMM..NM| 8.74E+06|N...NNn. ...... HHV HHVMMMMMN NN.. .NNHVVVVHMMMMMM..NM| 5.04E+06|N...NNnN NNN... HHV HHVMMMMMN NNN. .NNHVVVVHMMMMMMN.NM| 2.91E+06|NNNNNNnN NNN... HHV HHVMMMMMN NNNN NNNHVVVVHMMMMMMNNNM| 1.68E+06|NNNNNNnN NNNNNN HHV HHVMMMMMN NNNN NNNHVVVVHMMMMMMNNNM| 9.73E+05|NNNNNNnN NNNNNN HHV HHVMMMMMN NNNN NNNHVVVVHMMMMMMNNNM| ------!---+----------------------!------+------------------- Sep Oct NOTES: "V" = Very High Fluence, "H" = High Fluence, etc, " " = No Data, "!" = Solar rotational boundary periods from current date. Electron fluence is flux integrated over time in units of cm^-2 day^-1 sr^-1 as measured by GOES-8. Fluence values that are moderate or higher have been correlated with satellite anomalies. Sustained high to very high fluence has been correlated with serious malfunctions. COPIES OF JOINT USAF/NOAA SESC SOLAR GEOPHYSICAL REPORTS ======================================================== REGIONS WITH SUNSPOTS. LOCATIONS VALID AT 20/2400Z OCTOBER ---------------------------------------------------------- NMBR LOCATION LO AREA Z LL NN MAG TYPE 7912 S11W67 148 0150 CSO 06 005 BETA 7917 S09E65 016 0000 BXO 03 002 BETA 7918 N08E75 006 0110 HSX 03 001 ALPHA 7915 N01W82 163 PLAGE 7916 S02W52 133 PLAGE REGIONS DUE TO RETURN 21 OCTOBER TO 23 OCTOBER NMBR LAT LO NONE LISTING OF SOLAR ENERGETIC EVENTS FOR 20 OCTOBER, 1995 ------------------------------------------------------ BEGIN MAX END RGN LOC XRAY OP 245MHZ 10CM SWEEP 0510 0607 0645 7912 S09W55 M1.5 SF 450 750 II/IV POSSIBLE CORONAL MASS EJECTION EVENTS FOR 20 OCTOBER, 1995 ---------------------------------------------------------- UT TIME OPTICAL XRAY RADIO BEGIN MAX END LOCATION TYPE SIZE DUR II IV 20/ 0510 0607 0645 S09W55 LDE M1.5 95 3 2 INFERRED CORONAL HOLES. LOCATIONS VALID AT 20/2400Z --------------------------------------------------- ISOLATED HOLES AND POLAR EXTENSIONS EAST SOUTH WEST NORTH CAR TYPE POL AREA OBSN 80 S16W49 S16W49 N06W65 N13W63 143 ISO POS 005 10830A SUMMARY OF FLARE EVENTS FOR THE PREVIOUS UTC DAY ------------------------------------------------ Date Begin Max End Xray Op Region Locn 2695 MHz 8800 MHz 15.4 GHz ------ ---- ---- ---- ---- -- ------ ------ --------- --------- --------- 18 Oct: 0759 0802 0804 B1.0 0826 0830 0833 B1.1 1245 1259 1311 B1.0 1955 1959 2002 B1.2 SF 7912 S15W37 2004 2007 2009 B1.0 19 Oct: 0732 0737 0740 B1.1 1023 1030 1034 B3.2 SF 7912 S15W44 1656 1659 1701 B1.3 1953 1956 2001 B1.2 SF 7912 S15W51 2021 2029 2042 B2.0 2311 2315 2317 B1.5 REGION FLARE STATISTICS FOR THE PREVIOUS UTC DAY ------------------------------------------------ C M X S 1 2 3 4 Total (%) -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- --- ------ Region 7912: 0 0 0 3 0 0 0 0 003 (27.3) Uncorrellated: 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 008 (72.7) Total Events: 011 optical and x-ray. EVENTS WITH SWEEPS AND/OR OPTICAL PHENOMENA FOR THE LAST UTC DAY ---------------------------------------------------------------- Date Begin Max End Xray Op Region Locn Sweeps/Optical Observations ------ ---- ---- ---- ---- -- ------ ------ --------------------------- 18 Oct: 0759 0802 0804 B1.0 III,V 0826 0830 0833 B1.1 III,V 19 Oct: 1023 1030 1034 B3.2 SF 7912 S15W44 V 1656 1659 1701 B1.3 V 1953 1956 2001 B1.2 SF 7912 S15W51 V NOTES: All times are in Universal Time (UT). Characters preceding begin, max, and end times are defined as: B = Before, U = Uncertain, A = After. All times associated with x-ray flares (ex. flares which produce associated x-ray bursts) refer to the begin, max, and end times of the x-rays. Flares which are not associated with x-ray signatures use the optical observations to determine the begin, max, and end times. Acronyms used to identify sweeps and optical phenomena include: II = Type II Sweep Frequency Event III = Type III Sweep IV = Type IV Sweep V = Type V Sweep Continuum = Continuum Radio Event Loop = Loop Prominence System, Spray = Limb Spray, Surge = Bright Limb Surge, EPL = Eruptive Prominence on the Limb. ** End of Daily Report ** /\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\ DAILY SUMMARY OF SOLAR GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY 21 OCTOBER, 1995 /\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\ (Based In-Part On SESC Observational Data) SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY INDICES FOR 21 OCTOBER, 1995 ----------------------------------------------------------- NOTE: Although the electron fluence given below indicates a moderate level, actual fluence was probably near-normal to slightly above normal. The errors are introduced by the recent proton activity. !!BEGIN!! (1.0) S.T.D. Solar Geophysical Data Broadcast for DAY 294, 10/21/95 10.7 FLUX=081.0 90-AVG=074 SSN=040 BKI=2132 3322 BAI=009 BGND-XRAY=B1.1 FLU1=1.7E+07 FLU10=2.7E+05 PKI=2233 3322 PAI=011 BOU-DEV=017,008,038,019,024,022,017,017 DEV-AVG=020 NT SWF=00:000 XRAY-MAX= C3.0 @ 1528UT XRAY-MIN= A7.1 @ 1049UT XRAY-AVG= B1.6 NEUTN-MAX= +002% @ 2150UT NEUTN-MIN= -002% @ 1105UT NEUTN-AVG= +0.1% PCA-MAX= +0.3DB @ 1430UT PCA-MIN= -0.2DB @ 1340UT PCA-AVG= +0.1DB BOUTF-MAX=55184NT @ 2218UT BOUTF-MIN=55159NT @ 1650UT BOUTF-AVG=55175NT GOES7-MAX=P:+000NT@ 0000UT GOES7-MIN=N:+000NT@ 0000UT G7-AVG=+064,+000,+000 GOES6-MAX=P:+000NT@ 0000UT GOES6-MIN=N:+000NT@ 0000UT G6-AVG=+000,+000,+000 FLUXFCST=STD:080,080,078;SESC:080,080,078 BAI/PAI-FCST=015,015,015/030,020,015 KFCST=2333 4333 2333 4333 27DAY-AP=009,007 27DAY-KP=2333 1221 2331 2211 WARNINGS=*GSTRM;*AURMIDWCH ALERTS=**PROTNENH;**PCAENH !!END-DATA!! NOTE: The Effective Sunspot Number for 20 OCT 95 was 18.8. The Full Kp Indices for 21 OCT 95 are: 2o 2+ 3+ 3- 3+ 3- 2o 2+ The 3-Hr Ap Indices for 21 OCT 95 are: 8 9 20 14 20 12 9 9 Greater than 2 MeV Electron Fluence for 21 OCT is: 1.9E+08 DRAO 10.7 cm Solar Radio Flux at 18Z, 20Z, 22Z: 80.2, 81.0, 81.9 sfu. SYNOPSIS OF ACTIVITY -------------------- Solar activity was low. Region 7918 (N07E62) produced a C3/SF event at 1529Z. This group is composed of a mature H-type spot. Most of the small flares of the day came from Region 7917 (S10E53) which grew in white light. Region 7912 (S10W82), the site of yesterdays M1 x-ray flare, was quiet. Solar activity forecast: solar activity is expected to be very low, pending further development in Region 7917. STD: Solar WIND data was received between 07:35 and 15:19 UTC. The solar wind velocity was variable between approximately 450 and 500 km/sec. The density was steady near 4 p/cm^3 and the Bz IMF component remained fairly constant near -2 nT. Very little other activity was reported aside from a few dark surges from Regions 7917 and 7918 late in the period. X-ray activity became notably more disturbed following todays class C3.0 flare. The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled. The greater than 10 MeV proton event which began 20/0825Z, maxed at 63 pfu at 20/1210Z, ended at 20/2350Z. The polar cap absorption event also ended late on 20 October. The greater than 2 MeV electrons were at high fluxes the latter part of the period. Geophysical activity forecast: the geomagnetic field is expected to be generally unsettled at middle latitudes for the next three days. Minor storm conditions may prevail at high latitudes early, then give way to unsettled conditions by the end of the interval. Event probabilities 22 oct-24 oct Class M 05/05/05 Class X 01/01/01 Proton 01/01/01 PCAF Green Geomagnetic activity probabilities 22 oct-24 oct A. Middle Latitudes Active 25/25/25 Minor Storm 15/15/15 Major-Severe Storm 05/05/05 B. High Latitudes Active 25/25/25 Minor Storm 15/15/15 Major-Severe Storm 05/05/05 HF propagation conditions remained essentially useless on transpolar circuits due to the subsiding polar cap absorption induced by yesterdays proton flare. Auroral latitudes were also very poor to occassionally useless. Middle latitude night-sector circuits experienced periods of strong absorption, sporadic-E, multipathing and moderate to strong fading (also attributed in-part to the recent proton activity). MUFs from the middle to polar latitudes were depressed by as much as 15 to 40 percent. Propagation over the middle to polar latitudes is not expected to improve significantly until 23 and 24 October. Should a disturbance materialize from the solar flare related coronal mass ejection, propagation on the 22nd should remain poor at best for most of these regions with the heaviest degradation expected on transauroral circuits. If the disturbance fails to arrive, expect conditions to slowly improve through 24 October. The probability of Region 7912 producing another significant flare before it departs the west limb is low. NOTICE: The electron plot below may contained erroneous (too high) fluence for the last two days (20 and 21 October) as a result of sensor contamination by enhanced energetic protons. There is evidence, however, that electron fluence at greater than 2 MeV may have actually increased to (or near to) moderate levels. ENERGETIC ELECTRON FLUENCE 60-DAY HISTORY AT GREATER THAN 2 MEV ------!--+-----------------------!-----+-------------------- 3.75E+09|......+ ...... ... ......... +... ....................|V. HIGH 2.16E+09|......+ ...... ..V ..V...... +... ....................|V. HIGH 1.25E+09|......+ ...... ..V ..V...... +... ....VVV.............|V. HIGH 7.18E+08|......+ ...... ..V .HV...... +... ...HVVVVH...........|High 4.14E+08|......+ ...... HHV HHV...... +... ...HVVVVH...........|Moderate 2.38E+08|......+ ...... HHV HHVM..... +... ...HVVVVH..MMM......| 1.37E+08|......+ ...... HHV HHVM..MM. +... ...HVVVVHMMMMM.....M| 7.92E+07|......+ ...... HHV HHVMM.MM. +... ...HVVVVHMMMMMM....M| 4.56E+07|......+ ...... HHV HHVMMMMM. +... ...HVVVVHMMMMMM...MM|Normal 2.63E+07|...NN.+ ...... HHV HHVMMMMM. +... .NNHVVVVHMMMMMM..NMM| 1.52E+07|...NNN+ ...... HHV HHVMMMMMN +... .NNHVVVVHMMMMMM..NMM| 8.74E+06|...NNN+ ...... HHV HHVMMMMMN nN.. .NNHVVVVHMMMMMM..NMM| 5.04E+06|...NNNn NNN... HHV HHVMMMMMN nNN. .NNHVVVVHMMMMMMN.NMM| 2.91E+06|NNNNNNn NNN... HHV HHVMMMMMN nNNN NNNHVVVVHMMMMMMNNNMM| 1.68E+06|NNNNNNn NNNNNN HHV HHVMMMMMN nNNN NNNHVVVVHMMMMMMNNNMM| 9.73E+05|NNNNNNn NNNNNN HHV HHVMMMMMN nNNN NNNHVVVVHMMMMMMNNNMM| ------!--+-----------------------!-----+-------------------- Sep Oct NOTES: "V" = Very High Fluence, "H" = High Fluence, etc, " " = No Data, "!" = Solar rotational boundary periods from current date. Electron fluence is flux integrated over time in units of cm^-2 day^-1 sr^-1 as measured by GOES-8. Fluence values that are moderate or higher have been correlated with satellite anomalies. Sustained high to very high fluence has been correlated with serious malfunctions. COPIES OF JOINT USAF/NOAA SESC SOLAR GEOPHYSICAL REPORTS ======================================================== REGIONS WITH SUNSPOTS. LOCATIONS VALID AT 21/2400Z OCTOBER ---------------------------------------------------------- NMBR LOCATION LO AREA Z LL NN MAG TYPE 7912 S10W82 149 0150 HSX 03 001 ALPHA 7917 S10E53 014 0020 BXO 04 008 BETA 7918 N07E62 005 0130 HSX 02 001 ALPHA 7916 S02W65 132 PLAGE REGIONS DUE TO RETURN 22 OCTOBER TO 24 OCTOBER NMBR LAT LO NONE LISTING OF SOLAR ENERGETIC EVENTS FOR 21 OCTOBER, 1995 ------------------------------------------------------ BEGIN MAX END RGN LOC XRAY OP 245MHZ 10CM SWEEP NONE POSSIBLE CORONAL MASS EJECTION EVENTS FOR 21 OCTOBER, 1995 ---------------------------------------------------------- BEGIN MAX END LOCATION TYPE SIZE DUR II IV NO EVENTS OBSERVED INFERRED CORONAL HOLES. LOCATIONS VALID AT 21/2400Z --------------------------------------------------- ISOLATED HOLES AND POLAR EXTENSIONS EAST SOUTH WEST NORTH CAR TYPE POL AREA OBSN NONE VISIBLE SUMMARY OF FLARE EVENTS FOR THE PREVIOUS UTC DAY ------------------------------------------------ Date Begin Max End Xray Op Region Locn 2695 MHz 8800 MHz 15.4 GHz ------ ---- ---- ---- ---- -- ------ ------ --------- --------- --------- 19 Oct: 0732 0737 0740 B1.1 1023 1030 1034 B3.2 SF 7912 S15W44 1656 1659 1701 B1.3 1953 1956 2001 B1.2 SF 7912 S15W51 2021 2029 2042 B2.0 2311 2315 2317 B1.5 20 Oct: 0045 0050 0055 B1.3 0416 0421 0423 B1.7 0510 0607 0645 M1.5 SF 7912 S09W55 750 600 260 0754 0758 0815 SF 7912 S09W56 0817 0822 0828 SF 7912 S09W56 1303 1303 1308 SF 7917 S09E70 1721 1725 1727 B3.4 1919 1922 1925 B2.4 2232 2236 2242 B2.6 2305 2307 2320 SF 7917 S08E65 REGION FLARE STATISTICS FOR THE PREVIOUS UTC DAY ------------------------------------------------ C M X S 1 2 3 4 Total (%) -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- --- ------ Region 7912: 0 1 0 5 0 0 0 0 005 (31.2) Region 7917: 0 0 0 2 0 0 0 0 002 (12.5) Uncorrellated: 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 009 (56.2) Total Events: 016 optical and x-ray. EVENTS WITH SWEEPS AND/OR OPTICAL PHENOMENA FOR THE LAST UTC DAY ---------------------------------------------------------------- Date Begin Max End Xray Op Region Locn Sweeps/Optical Observations ------ ---- ---- ---- ---- -- ------ ------ --------------------------- 19 Oct: 1023 1030 1034 B3.2 SF 7912 S15W44 V 1656 1659 1701 B1.3 V 1953 1956 2001 B1.2 SF 7912 S15W51 V 20 Oct: 0416 0421 0423 B1.7 III 0510 0607 0645 M1.5 SF 7912 S09W55 II,III,IV NOTES: All times are in Universal Time (UT). Characters preceding begin, max, and end times are defined as: B = Before, U = Uncertain, A = After. All times associated with x-ray flares (ex. flares which produce associated x-ray bursts) refer to the begin, max, and end times of the x-rays. Flares which are not associated with x-ray signatures use the optical observations to determine the begin, max, and end times. Acronyms used to identify sweeps and optical phenomena include: II = Type II Sweep Frequency Event III = Type III Sweep IV = Type IV Sweep V = Type V Sweep Continuum = Continuum Radio Event Loop = Loop Prominence System, Spray = Limb Spray, Surge = Bright Limb Surge, EPL = Eruptive Prominence on the Limb. ** End of Daily Report ** /\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\ DAILY SUMMARY OF SOLAR GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY 22 OCTOBER, 1995 /\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\ (Based In-Part On SESC Observational Data) SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY INDICES FOR 22 OCTOBER, 1995 ----------------------------------------------------------- NOTE: The greater than 2 MeV electron fluence was high today. !!BEGIN!! (1.0) S.T.D. Solar Geophysical Data Broadcast for DAY 295, 10/22/95 10.7 FLUX=080.5 90-AVG=074 SSN=047 BKI=2332 2232 BAI=010 BGND-XRAY=B1.3 FLU1=3.7E+06 FLU10=3.7E+04 PKI=2332 2232 PAI=010 BOU-DEV=017,021,031,013,012,010,021,011 DEV-AVG=017 NT SWF=00:000 XRAY-MAX= B4.2 @ 2215UT XRAY-MIN= A5.9 @ 1331UT XRAY-AVG= B1.0 NEUTN-MAX= +002% @ 0945UT NEUTN-MIN= -003% @ 1405UT NEUTN-AVG= +0.1% PCA-MAX= +0.1DB @ 1720UT PCA-MIN= -0.2DB @ 1225UT PCA-AVG= +0.0DB BOUTF-MAX=55189NT @ 2205UT BOUTF-MIN=55165NT @ 1746UT BOUTF-AVG=55177NT GOES7-MAX=P:+000NT@ 0000UT GOES7-MIN=N:+000NT@ 0000UT G7-AVG=+066,+000,+000 GOES6-MAX=P:+000NT@ 0000UT GOES6-MIN=N:+000NT@ 0000UT G6-AVG=+000,+000,+000 FLUXFCST=STD:080,080,078;SESC:080,080,078 BAI/PAI-FCST=015,010,010/010,010,010 KFCST=2333 4333 2233 4322 27DAY-AP=007,005 27DAY-KP=2331 2211 1223 1121 WARNINGS= ALERTS=**PROTNENH !!END-DATA!! NOTE: The Effective Sunspot Number for 21 OCT 95 was 18.8. The Full Kp Indices for 22 OCT 95 are: 2- 3o 3+ 2o 2o 2- 3- 2+ The 3-Hr Ap Indices for 22 OCT 95 are: 6 15 20 8 7 6 11 10 Greater than 2 MeV Electron Fluence for 22 OCT is: 5.3E+08 DRAO 10.7 cm Solar Radio Flux at 18Z, 20Z, 22Z: 80.1, 80.5, 82.5 sfu. SYNOPSIS OF ACTIVITY -------------------- STD: Solar activity was very low. The largest flare was a class B4.2 event at 22:15 UTC. Region 7912 (S11W93) quietly departed the west limb today. Region 7917 (S10E40) has shown growth in both spot count and area coverage. Rudimentary penumbra exists around the leading spot and may also be forming around one of the trailers. Region 7918 (N08E49) also grew very slightly over the last 24 hours. Recent observations show the emergence of a third spot within the region. There were no reported solar radio bursts or sweeps. STD: Solar activity is expected to continue very low to low. There is a very slight chance departed Region 7912 may produce a C-class flare before x-ray occultation occurs. STD: Solar WIND data received between 07:35 and 15:35 UTC indicated a solar wind velocity steady near 390 km/sec. The density was also steady near 4 p/cm^3. The Bz IMF component was almost constant at a weakly southward -2 nT. STD: There was a weak sudden magnetic impulse of 7 nT at 21:55 UTC. The source may have been related to the M1.5 proton flare of 20 October. No significant geomagnetic activity followed this disturbance. Protons at greater than 10 MeV fell back to near background levels. They are only very slightly enhanced above background levels at the present time. The electron fluence at greater than 2 MeV was high today. STD: Geomagnetic activity is expected to remain unsettled to quiet over the next 24 hours, becomming quiet on 24 and 25 October. High latitudes may see one or two brief minor storm episodes over the next 24 hours. Event probabilities 23 oct-25 oct Class M 05/01/01 Class X 01/01/01 Proton 01/01/01 PCAF Green Geomagnetic activity probabilities 23 oct-25 oct A. Middle Latitudes Active 25/25/25 Minor Storm 15/10/10 Major-Severe Storm 05/05/05 B. High Latitudes Active 25/25/25 Minor Storm 15/10/10 Major-Severe Storm 05/05/05 HF propagation conditions were disturbed over the high and polar latitude regions until about 12:00 UTC. Effects of the recent PCA event continued to subside throughout the day. By the end of the UTC day, most regions had returned to near-normal with periods of below-normal propagation being occassionally reported over some transpolar paths. MUFs slowly recovered over these regions but remained about 15 to 20 percent below normal. Propagation should return to normal over the next 24 to 48 hours. ENERGETIC ELECTRON FLUENCE 60-DAY HISTORY AT GREATER THAN 2 MEV ------!-+------------------------!----+--------------------- 3.75E+09|...... ...... ... ......... .+.. .....................|V. HIGH 2.16E+09|...... ...... ..V ..V...... .+.. .....................|V. HIGH 1.25E+09|...... ...... ..V ..V...... .+.. ....VVV..............|V. HIGH 7.18E+08|...... ...... ..V .HV...... .+.. ...HVVVVH............|High 4.14E+08|...... ...... HHV HHV...... .+.. ...HVVVVH...........H|Moderate 2.38E+08|...... ...... HHV HHVM..... .+.. ...HVVVVH..MMM......H| 1.37E+08|...... ...... HHV HHVM..MM. .+.. ...HVVVVHMMMMM.....MH| 7.92E+07|...... ...... HHV HHVMM.MM. .+.. ...HVVVVHMMMMMM....MH| 4.56E+07|...... ...... HHV HHVMMMMM. .+.. ...HVVVVHMMMMMM...MMH|Normal 2.63E+07|..NN.. ...... HHV HHVMMMMM. .+.. .NNHVVVVHMMMMMM..NMMH| 1.52E+07|..NNN. ...... HHV HHVMMMMMN .+.. .NNHVVVVHMMMMMM..NMMH| 8.74E+06|..NNN. ...... HHV HHVMMMMMN Nn.. .NNHVVVVHMMMMMM..NMMH| 5.04E+06|..NNNN NNN... HHV HHVMMMMMN NnN. .NNHVVVVHMMMMMMN.NMMH| 2.91E+06|NNNNNN NNN... HHV HHVMMMMMN NnNN NNNHVVVVHMMMMMMNNNMMH| 1.68E+06|NNNNNN NNNNNN HHV HHVMMMMMN NnNN NNNHVVVVHMMMMMMNNNMMH| 9.73E+05|NNNNNN NNNNNN HHV HHVMMMMMN NnNN NNNHVVVVHMMMMMMNNNMMH| ------!-+------------------------!----+--------------------- Sep Oct NOTES: "V" = Very High Fluence, "H" = High Fluence, etc, " " = No Data, "!" = Solar rotational boundary periods from current date. Electron fluence is flux integrated over time in units of cm^-2 day^-1 sr^-1 as measured by GOES-8. Fluence values that are moderate or higher have been correlated with satellite anomalies. Sustained high to very high fluence has been correlated with serious malfunctions. COPIES OF JOINT USAF/NOAA SESC SOLAR GEOPHYSICAL REPORTS ======================================================== REGIONS WITH SUNSPOTS. LOCATIONS VALID AT 22/2400Z OCTOBER ---------------------------------------------------------- NMBR LOCATION LO AREA Z LL NN MAG TYPE 7912 S11W93 147 0120 HSX 02 001 ALPHA 7917 S10E40 014 0020 BXO 05 015 BETA 7918 N08E49 005 0180 HSX 02 001 ALPHA REGIONS DUE TO RETURN 23 OCTOBER TO 25 OCTOBER NMBR LAT LO NONE LISTING OF SOLAR ENERGETIC EVENTS FOR 22 OCTOBER, 1995 ------------------------------------------------------ BEGIN MAX END RGN LOC XRAY OP 245MHZ 10CM SWEEP NONE POSSIBLE CORONAL MASS EJECTION EVENTS FOR 22 OCTOBER, 1995 ---------------------------------------------------------- BEGIN MAX END LOCATION TYPE SIZE DUR II IV NO EVENTS OBSERVED INFERRED CORONAL HOLES. LOCATIONS VALID AT 22/2400Z --------------------------------------------------- ISOLATED HOLES AND POLAR EXTENSIONS EAST SOUTH WEST NORTH CAR TYPE POL AREA OBSN NO DATA SUMMARY OF FLARE EVENTS FOR THE PREVIOUS UTC DAY ------------------------------------------------ Date Begin Max End Xray Op Region Locn 2695 MHz 8800 MHz 15.4 GHz ------ ---- ---- ---- ---- -- ------ ------ --------- --------- --------- 20 Oct: 0045 0050 0055 B1.3 0416 0421 0423 B1.7 0510 0607 0645 M1.5 SF 7912 S09W55 750 600 260 0754 0758 0815 SF 7912 S09W56 0817 0822 0828 SF 7912 S09W56 1303 1303 1308 SF 7917 S09E70 1721 1725 1727 B3.4 1919 1922 1925 B2.4 2232 2236 2242 B2.6 2305 2307 2320 SF 7917 S08E65 21 Oct: 0245 0248 0250 B1.2 1517 1529 1537 C3.0 SF 7918 N12E71 1630 1634 1636 B2.0 1701 1703 1711 SF 7917 S05E57 1758 1801 1804 SF 7918 N07E67 1809 1814 1823 B4.6 SF 7917 S10E55 1915 1924 1955 SF 7917 S10E55 2010 2014 2018 B2.5 SF 7917 S10E54 REGION FLARE STATISTICS FOR THE PREVIOUS UTC DAY ------------------------------------------------ C M X S 1 2 3 4 Total (%) -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- --- ------ Region 7912: 0 1 0 3 0 0 0 0 003 (16.7) Region 7917: 0 0 0 6 0 0 0 0 006 (33.3) Region 7918: 1 0 0 2 0 0 0 0 002 (11.1) Uncorrellated: 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 007 (38.9) Total Events: 018 optical and x-ray. EVENTS WITH SWEEPS AND/OR OPTICAL PHENOMENA FOR THE LAST UTC DAY ---------------------------------------------------------------- Date Begin Max End Xray Op Region Locn Sweeps/Optical Observations ------ ---- ---- ---- ---- -- ------ ------ --------------------------- 20 Oct: 0416 0421 0423 B1.7 III 0510 0607 0645 M1.5 SF 7912 S09W55 II,III,IV NOTES: All times are in Universal Time (UT). Characters preceding begin, max, and end times are defined as: B = Before, U = Uncertain, A = After. All times associated with x-ray flares (ex. flares which produce associated x-ray bursts) refer to the begin, max, and end times of the x-rays. Flares which are not associated with x-ray signatures use the optical observations to determine the begin, max, and end times. Acronyms used to identify sweeps and optical phenomena include: II = Type II Sweep Frequency Event III = Type III Sweep IV = Type IV Sweep V = Type V Sweep Continuum = Continuum Radio Event Loop = Loop Prominence System, Spray = Limb Spray, Surge = Bright Limb Surge, EPL = Eruptive Prominence on the Limb. ** End of Daily Report ** /\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\ DAILY SUMMARY OF SOLAR GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY 23 OCTOBER, 1995 /\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\ (Based In-Part On SESC Observational Data) SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY INDICES FOR 23 OCTOBER, 1995 ----------------------------------------------------------- NOTE: The background x-ray flux is estimated. Energetic electron fluence at greater that 2 MeV is not yet available but is in the moderate to high range. !!BEGIN!! (1.0) S.T.D. Solar Geophysical Data Broadcast for DAY 296, 10/23/95 10.7 FLUX=076.7 90-AVG=074 SSN=035 BKI=3435 3222 BAI=017 BGND-XRAY=A5.0 FLU1=1.3E+06 FLU10=1.9E+04 PKI=3534 3333 PAI=019 BOU-DEV=025,065,039,072,021,015,015,017 DEV-AVG=033 NT SWF=00:000 XRAY-MAX= B1.4 @ 0321UT XRAY-MIN= A3.2 @ 2359UT XRAY-AVG= A5.3 NEUTN-MAX= +002% @ 2235UT NEUTN-MIN= -002% @ 2320UT NEUTN-AVG= -0.0% PCA-MAX= +0.0DB @ 2355UT PCA-MIN= -0.8DB @ 2140UT PCA-AVG= -0.1DB BOUTF-MAX=55190NT @ 0319UT BOUTF-MIN=55163NT @ 1948UT BOUTF-AVG=55178NT GOES7-MAX=P:+000NT@ 0000UT GOES7-MIN=N:+000NT@ 0000UT G7-AVG=+045,+000,+000 GOES6-MAX=P:+000NT@ 0000UT GOES6-MIN=N:+000NT@ 0000UT G6-AVG=+000,+000,+000 FLUXFCST=STD:077,077,075;SESC:077,077,075 BAI/PAI-FCST=010,010,005/012,010,010 KFCST=1113 3111 1113 3111 27DAY-AP=005,027 27DAY-KP=1223 1121 2334 4555 WARNINGS= ALERTS= !!END-DATA!! NOTE: The Effective Sunspot Number for 22 OCT 95 was 16.5. The Full Kp Indices for 23 OCT 95 are: 3+ 5- 3+ 4+ 3- 3- 3- 3- The 3-Hr Ap Indices for 23 OCT 95 are: 18 44 20 33 13 11 11 11 Greater than 2 MeV Electron Fluence value is not available. DRAO 10.7 cm Solar Radio Flux at 18Z, 20Z, 22Z: 77.9, 76.7, 78.4 sfu. SYNOPSIS OF ACTIVITY -------------------- Solar activity was very low. There are two spotted regions on the disk: 7917 (S10E26) and 7918 (N03E35). Region 7917 is a fairly small B-type group which was observed to produce one subflare: a B4/SF at 22/2214Z. Region 7918 has the larger spot area (120 millionths) but was undergoing fragmenation and slight decline compared to yesterday. Solar activity forecast: solar activity is expected to be very low to low. STD: Solar WIND data was received between 20:21 and 23:05 UTC. The measured solar wind velocity during this period ranged from 385 to 435 km/sec. Density gradually fell from 9 p/cm^3 to 1 p/cm^3. The Bz IMF component was northward from 20:21 to 21:30 UTC. It then turned southward from 21:31 to 21:42 UTC and swung northward from 21:44 to 22:33 UTC. At 22:34 UTC a sector boundary was observed together with a southward turning of the Bz field. The field then remained southward through the end of the period. No other significant activity was noted. The geomagnetic field ranged from quiet to minor storm levels with some major storm level activity at high latitudes. Unsettled to active levels prevailed through most of the day. Two periods of minor to major storm level activity occurred from 0300-0600Z and from 0900-1200Z. The greater than 2 MeV electron fluxes ranged from moderate to high levels. Geophysical activity forecast: the geomagnetic field is expected to be generally unsettled for the next two days and quiet to unsettled by the third day. Event probabilities 24 oct-26 oct Class M 01/01/01 Class X 01/01/01 Proton 01/01/01 PCAF Green Geomagnetic activity probabilities 24 oct-26 oct A. Middle Latitudes Active 15/15/10 Minor Storm 05/05/05 Major-Severe Storm 01/01/01 B. High Latitudes Active 15/15/10 Minor Storm 05/05/05 Major-Severe Storm 01/01/01 HF propagation conditions returned to near-normal levels over all regions today. High latitudes continued to see a few periods of minor signal degradation during the local night sectors, but were otherwise near-normal. Normal propagation is expected to continue through 26 October inclusive. ENERGETIC ELECTRON FLUENCE 60-DAY HISTORY AT GREATER THAN 2 MEV ------!+-------------------------!---+---------------------- 3.75E+09|..... +..... ... ......... ..+. ..................... |V. HIGH 2.16E+09|..... +..... ..V ..V...... ..+. ..................... |V. HIGH 1.25E+09|..... +..... ..V ..V...... ..+. ....VVV.............. |V. HIGH 7.18E+08|..... +..... ..V .HV...... ..+. ...HVVVVH............ |High 4.14E+08|..... +..... HHV HHV...... ..+. ...HVVVVH...........H |Moderate 2.38E+08|..... +..... HHV HHVM..... ..+. ...HVVVVH..MMM......H | 1.37E+08|..... +..... HHV HHVM..MM. ..+. ...HVVVVHMMMMM.....MH | 7.92E+07|..... +..... HHV HHVMM.MM. ..+. ...HVVVVHMMMMMM....MH | 4.56E+07|..... +..... HHV HHVMMMMM. ..+. ...HVVVVHMMMMMM...MMH |Normal 2.63E+07|.NN.. +..... HHV HHVMMMMM. ..+. .NNHVVVVHMMMMMM..NMMH | 1.52E+07|.NNN. +..... HHV HHVMMMMMN ..+. .NNHVVVVHMMMMMM..NMMH | 8.74E+06|.NNN. +..... HHV HHVMMMMMN NN+. .NNHVVVVHMMMMMM..NMMH | 5.04E+06|.NNNN nNN... HHV HHVMMMMMN NNn. .NNHVVVVHMMMMMMN.NMMH | 2.91E+06|NNNNN nNN... HHV HHVMMMMMN NNnN NNNHVVVVHMMMMMMNNNMMH | 1.68E+06|NNNNN nNNNNN HHV HHVMMMMMN NNnN NNNHVVVVHMMMMMMNNNMMH | 9.73E+05|NNNNN nNNNNN HHV HHVMMMMMN NNnN NNNHVVVVHMMMMMMNNNMMH | ------!+-------------------------!---+---------------------- Sep Oct NOTES: "V" = Very High Fluence, "H" = High Fluence, etc, " " = No Data, "!" = Solar rotational boundary periods from current date. Electron fluence is flux integrated over time in units of cm^-2 day^-1 sr^-1 as measured by GOES-8. Fluence values that are moderate or higher have been correlated with satellite anomalies. Sustained high to very high fluence has been correlated with serious malfunctions. COPIES OF JOINT USAF/NOAA SESC SOLAR GEOPHYSICAL REPORTS ======================================================== REGIONS WITH SUNSPOTS. LOCATIONS VALID AT 23/2400Z OCTOBER ---------------------------------------------------------- NMBR LOCATION LO AREA Z LL NN MAG TYPE 7917 S10E26 015 0040 BXO 06 011 BETA 7918 N08E35 006 0120 HAX 02 004 ALPHA REGIONS DUE TO RETURN 24 OCTOBER TO 26 OCTOBER NMBR LAT LO NONE LISTING OF SOLAR ENERGETIC EVENTS FOR 23 OCTOBER, 1995 ------------------------------------------------------ BEGIN MAX END RGN LOC XRAY OP 245MHZ 10CM SWEEP NONE POSSIBLE CORONAL MASS EJECTION EVENTS FOR 23 OCTOBER, 1995 ---------------------------------------------------------- BEGIN MAX END LOCATION TYPE SIZE DUR II IV NO EVENTS OBSERVED INFERRED CORONAL HOLES. LOCATIONS VALID AT 23/2400Z --------------------------------------------------- ISOLATED HOLES AND POLAR EXTENSIONS EAST SOUTH WEST NORTH CAR TYPE POL AREA OBSN NONE VISIBLE SUMMARY OF FLARE EVENTS FOR THE PREVIOUS UTC DAY ------------------------------------------------ Date Begin Max End Xray Op Region Locn 2695 MHz 8800 MHz 15.4 GHz ------ ---- ---- ---- ---- -- ------ ------ --------- --------- --------- 21 Oct: 0245 0248 0250 B1.2 1517 1529 1537 C3.0 SF 7918 N12E71 1630 1634 1636 B2.0 1701 1703 1711 SF 7917 S05E57 1758 1801 1804 SF 7918 N07E67 1809 1814 1823 B4.6 SF 7917 S10E55 1915 1924 1955 SF 7917 S10E55 2010 2014 2018 B2.5 SF 7917 S10E54 22 Oct: 0342 0346 0352 B3.4 0436 0440 0449 B1.3 0804 0807 0812 B1.1 1027 1031 1035 B1.6 1414 1417 1420 B1.0 1859 1903 1906 B1.1 2204 2214 2224 B4.2 REGION FLARE STATISTICS FOR THE PREVIOUS UTC DAY ------------------------------------------------ C M X S 1 2 3 4 Total (%) -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- --- ------ Region 7917: 0 0 0 4 0 0 0 0 004 (26.7) Region 7918: 1 0 0 2 0 0 0 0 002 (13.3) Uncorrellated: 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 009 (60.0) Total Events: 015 optical and x-ray. EVENTS WITH SWEEPS AND/OR OPTICAL PHENOMENA FOR THE LAST UTC DAY ---------------------------------------------------------------- Date Begin Max End Xray Op Region Locn Sweeps/Optical Observations ------ ---- ---- ---- ---- -- ------ ------ --------------------------- NO EVENTS OBSERVED. NOTES: All times are in Universal Time (UT). Characters preceding begin, max, and end times are defined as: B = Before, U = Uncertain, A = After. All times associated with x-ray flares (ex. flares which produce associated x-ray bursts) refer to the begin, max, and end times of the x-rays. Flares which are not associated with x-ray signatures use the optical observations to determine the begin, max, and end times. Acronyms used to identify sweeps and optical phenomena include: II = Type II Sweep Frequency Event III = Type III Sweep IV = Type IV Sweep V = Type V Sweep Continuum = Continuum Radio Event Loop = Loop Prominence System, Spray = Limb Spray, Surge = Bright Limb Surge, EPL = Eruptive Prominence on the Limb. ** End of Daily Report ** /\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\ DAILY SUMMARY OF SOLAR GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY 24 OCTOBER, 1995 /\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\ (Based In-Part On SESC Observational Data) SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY INDICES FOR 24 OCTOBER, 1995 ----------------------------------------------------------- !!BEGIN!! (1.0) S.T.D. Solar Geophysical Data Broadcast for DAY 297, 10/24/95 10.7 FLUX=074.3 90-AVG=074 SSN=035 BKI=3022 3321 BAI=008 BGND-XRAY=A3.1 FLU1=4.2E+05 FLU10=1.6E+04 PKI=3222 3321 PAI=008 BOU-DEV=021,003,014,011,024,021,010,006 DEV-AVG=013 NT SWF=00:000 XRAY-MAX= A8.2 @ 0712UT XRAY-MIN= A1.7 @ 2348UT XRAY-AVG= A2.7 NEUTN-MAX= +002% @ 2155UT NEUTN-MIN= -002% @ 2200UT NEUTN-AVG= +0.2% PCA-MAX= +0.0DB @ 2355UT PCA-MIN= -0.3DB @ 1625UT PCA-AVG= -0.0DB BOUTF-MAX=55187NT @ 1419UT BOUTF-MIN=55162NT @ 1654UT BOUTF-AVG=55179NT GOES7-MAX=P:+000NT@ 0000UT GOES7-MIN=N:+000NT@ 0000UT G7-AVG=+068,+000,+000 GOES6-MAX=P:+000NT@ 0000UT GOES6-MIN=N:+000NT@ 0000UT G6-AVG=+000,+000,+000 FLUXFCST=STD:074,074,072;SESC:074,074,072 BAI/PAI-FCST=005,005,005/010,010,008 KFCST=1004 4011 1004 4011 27DAY-AP=027,023 27DAY-KP=2334 4555 3356 3231 WARNINGS= ALERTS= !!END-DATA!! NOTE: The Effective Sunspot Number for 23 OCT 95 was 16.0. The Full Kp Indices for 24 OCT 95 are: 3- 2- 2o 2- 3- 3- 2- 1o The 3-Hr Ap Indices for 24 OCT 95 are: 14 6 8 7 11 11 6 4 Greater than 2 MeV Electron Fluence for 24 OCT is: 1.7E+07 DRAO 10.7 cm Solar Radio Flux at 18Z, 20Z, 22Z: 74.3, 74.3, 75.8 sfu. SYNOPSIS OF ACTIVITY -------------------- Solar activity was very low. Region 7918 (N08E23) continued to decay, its area is now at 90 millionths. Solar activity forecast: solar activity is expected to be very low. STD: Solar WIND data received from 20:15 to 23:15 UTC showed a steady solar wind velocity of 375 km/sec. Density fell from 12 p/cm^3 to 3 p/cm^3 during the period and the Bz IMF component ranged from a northward +4 nT to a weak southward -0.5 nT. The solar disk was fairly quiet today. The small (approx. 6 degree) filament located near N06E29 was active from about 14:20 UTC onward. The geomagnetic field ranged from quiet to unsettled levels. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at moderate levels. STD: Overall fluence at greater than 2 MeV was near-normal. Geophysical activity forecast: the geomagnetic field is expected to be mostly quiet the next three days. Event probabilities 25 oct-27 oct Class M 01/01/01 Class X 01/01/01 Proton 01/01/01 PCAF Green Geomagnetic activity probabilities 25 oct-27 oct A. Middle Latitudes Active 20/20/20 Minor Storm 10/10/10 Major-Severe Storm 05/05/05 B. High Latitudes Active 20/20/20 Minor Storm 10/10/10 Major-Severe Storm 05/05/05 HF propagation conditions were normal over all regions. No changes are forseen through 27 October inclusive. Good propagation should be observed over equatorial to middle latitude paths. High and polar latitude paths should see generally fair propagation. ENERGETIC ELECTRON FLUENCE 60-DAY HISTORY AT GREATER THAN 2 MEV ------!--------------------------!--+----------------------- 3.75E+09|.... .+.... ... ......... ...+ ..................... .|V. HIGH 2.16E+09|.... .+.... ..V ..V...... ...+ ..................... .|V. HIGH 1.25E+09|.... .+.... ..V ..V...... ...+ ....VVV.............. .|V. HIGH 7.18E+08|.... .+.... ..V .HV...... ...+ ...HVVVVH............ .|High 4.14E+08|.... .+.... HHV HHV...... ...+ ...HVVVVH...........H .|Moderate 2.38E+08|.... .+.... HHV HHVM..... ...+ ...HVVVVH..MMM......H .| 1.37E+08|.... .+.... HHV HHVM..MM. ...+ ...HVVVVHMMMMM.....MH .| 7.92E+07|.... .+.... HHV HHVMM.MM. ...+ ...HVVVVHMMMMMM....MH .| 4.56E+07|.... .+.... HHV HHVMMMMM. ...+ ...HVVVVHMMMMMM...MMH .|Normal 2.63E+07|NN.. .+.... HHV HHVMMMMM. ...+ .NNHVVVVHMMMMMM..NMMH .| 1.52E+07|NNN. .+.... HHV HHVMMMMMN ...+ .NNHVVVVHMMMMMM..NMMH N| 8.74E+06|NNN. .+.... HHV HHVMMMMMN NN.+ .NNHVVVVHMMMMMM..NMMH N| 5.04E+06|NNNN NnN... HHV HHVMMMMMN NNN+ .NNHVVVVHMMMMMMN.NMMH N| 2.91E+06|NNNN NnN... HHV HHVMMMMMN NNNn NNNHVVVVHMMMMMMNNNMMH N| 1.68E+06|NNNN NnNNNN HHV HHVMMMMMN NNNn NNNHVVVVHMMMMMMNNNMMH N| 9.73E+05|NNNN NnNNNN HHV HHVMMMMMN NNNn NNNHVVVVHMMMMMMNNNMMH N| ------!--------------------------!--+----------------------- Sep Oct NOTES: "V" = Very High Fluence, "H" = High Fluence, etc, " " = No Data, "!" = Solar rotational boundary periods from current date. Electron fluence is flux integrated over time in units of cm^-2 day^-1 sr^-1 as measured by GOES-8. Fluence values that are moderate or higher have been correlated with satellite anomalies. Sustained high to very high fluence has been correlated with serious malfunctions. COPIES OF JOINT USAF/NOAA SESC SOLAR GEOPHYSICAL REPORTS ======================================================== REGIONS WITH SUNSPOTS. LOCATIONS VALID AT 24/2400Z OCTOBER ---------------------------------------------------------- NMBR LOCATION LO AREA Z LL NN MAG TYPE 7917 S10E13 015 0020 BXO 06 007 BETA 7918 N08E23 005 0090 CAO 06 008 BETA REGIONS DUE TO RETURN 25 OCTOBER TO 27 OCTOBER NMBR LAT LO NONE LISTING OF SOLAR ENERGETIC EVENTS FOR 24 OCTOBER, 1995 ------------------------------------------------------ A. ENERGETIC EVENTS: NONE POSSIBLE CORONAL MASS EJECTION EVENTS FOR 24 OCTOBER, 1995 ---------------------------------------------------------- BEGIN MAX END LOCATION TYPE SIZE DUR II IV NO EVENTS OBSERVED INFERRED CORONAL HOLES. LOCATIONS VALID AT 24/2400Z --------------------------------------------------- ISOLATED HOLES AND POLAR EXTENSIONS EAST SOUTH WEST NORTH CAR TYPE POL AREA OBSN SOLAR WIND INFORMATION: WIND DATA RECEIVED FROM 2015-2315Z. VELOCITY REMAINED STEADY AT 375 KM/S. BZ RANGED FROM +4 TO -0.5 NT AND THE DENSITY DROPPED FROM 12 TO 3 P/CC DURING THE PERIOD. PART IV. COMMENTS NONE SUMMARY OF FLARE EVENTS FOR THE PREVIOUS UTC DAY ------------------------------------------------ Date Begin Max End Xray Op Region Locn 2695 MHz 8800 MHz 15.4 GHz ------ ---- ---- ---- ---- -- ------ ------ --------- --------- --------- 22 Oct: 0342 0346 0352 B3.4 0436 0440 0449 B1.3 0804 0807 0812 B1.1 1027 1031 1035 B1.6 1414 1417 1420 B1.0 1859 1903 1906 B1.1 2204 2214 2224 B4.2 23 Oct: 0315 0320 0326 B1.4 1713 1718 1725 B2.0 REGION FLARE STATISTICS FOR THE PREVIOUS UTC DAY ------------------------------------------------ C M X S 1 2 3 4 Total (%) -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- --- ------ Uncorrellated: 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 009 (100.0) Total Events: 009 optical and x-ray. EVENTS WITH SWEEPS AND/OR OPTICAL PHENOMENA FOR THE LAST UTC DAY ---------------------------------------------------------------- Date Begin Max End Xray Op Region Locn Sweeps/Optical Observations ------ ---- ---- ---- ---- -- ------ ------ --------------------------- NO EVENTS OBSERVED. NOTES: All times are in Universal Time (UT). Characters preceding begin, max, and end times are defined as: B = Before, U = Uncertain, A = After. All times associated with x-ray flares (ex. flares which produce associated x-ray bursts) refer to the begin, max, and end times of the x-rays. Flares which are not associated with x-ray signatures use the optical observations to determine the begin, max, and end times. Acronyms used to identify sweeps and optical phenomena include: II = Type II Sweep Frequency Event III = Type III Sweep IV = Type IV Sweep V = Type V Sweep Continuum = Continuum Radio Event Loop = Loop Prominence System, Spray = Limb Spray, Surge = Bright Limb Surge, EPL = Eruptive Prominence on the Limb. ** End of Daily Report ** /\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\ DAILY SUMMARY OF SOLAR GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY 25 OCTOBER, 1995 /\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\ (Based In-Part On SESC Observational Data) SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY INDICES FOR 25 OCTOBER, 1995 ----------------------------------------------------------- !!BEGIN!! (1.0) S.T.D. Solar Geophysical Data Broadcast for DAY 298, 10/25/95 10.7 FLUX=074.0 90-AVG=075 SSN=036 BKI=1321 1000 BAI=003 BGND-XRAY=A1.9 FLU1=8.5E+04 FLU10=1.8E+04 PKI=2321 1211 PAI=006 BOU-DEV=008,022,019,009,005,004,002,002 DEV-AVG=008 NT SWF=00:000 XRAY-MAX= B1.6 @ 1640UT XRAY-MIN= A1.6 @ 0704UT XRAY-AVG= A2.3 NEUTN-MAX= +003% @ 2335UT NEUTN-MIN= -002% @ 0025UT NEUTN-AVG= +0.3% PCA-MAX= +0.1DB @ 0800UT PCA-MIN= -0.3DB @ 1345UT PCA-AVG= -0.0DB BOUTF-MAX=55186NT @ 1412UT BOUTF-MIN=55172NT @ 1938UT BOUTF-AVG=55180NT GOES7-MAX=P:+000NT@ 0000UT GOES7-MIN=N:+000NT@ 0000UT G7-AVG=+060,+000,+000 GOES6-MAX=P:+000NT@ 0000UT GOES6-MIN=N:+000NT@ 0000UT G6-AVG=+000,+000,+000 FLUXFCST=STD:075,075,075;SESC:075,075,075 BAI/PAI-FCST=005,005,005/010,008,008 KFCST=2213 3211 2114 3211 27DAY-AP=023,005 27DAY-KP=3356 3231 1122 2110 WARNINGS= ALERTS= !!END-DATA!! NOTE: The Effective Sunspot Number for 24 OCT 95 is not available. The Full Kp Indices for 25 OCT 95 are: 2+ 3- 2o 1+ 1+ 2- 1+ 1- The 3-Hr Ap Indices for 25 OCT 95 are: 9 14 8 5 5 6 5 3 Greater than 2 MeV Electron Fluence for 25 OCT is: 1.6E+07 DRAO 10.7 cm Solar Radio Flux at 18Z, 20Z, 22Z: 74.7, 74.0, 75.1 sfu. SYNOPSIS OF ACTIVITY -------------------- Solar activity was very low. Two active regions remain on the disk, 7917 (S10W00) and 7918 (N07E09), which continues to decay and is currently at 80 millionths. A single uncorrelated B1 x-ray flare was recorded during this reporting period. Solar activity forecast: solar activity is expected to be very low. STD: Solar WIND data was not able to be included in this report. We will try to provide the data for today in tommorrows report (for 26 October). The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels at all latitudes for the past 24 hours. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux has ranged from background to moderate levels. Geophysical activity forecast: the geomagnetic field is expected to be mostly quiet for the next three days. Event probabilities 26 oct-28 oct Class M 01/01/01 Class X 01/01/01 Proton 01/01/01 PCAF Green Geomagnetic activity probabilities 26 oct-28 oct A. Middle Latitudes Active 20/20/20 Minor Storm 10/10/10 Major-Severe Storm 05/05/05 B. High Latitudes Active 25/25/25 Minor Storm 15/15/15 Major-Severe Storm 05/05/05 HF propagation conditions were normal over all regions. Normal conditions should continue through 28 October inclusive. ENERGETIC ELECTRON FLUENCE 60-DAY HISTORY AT GREATER THAN 2 MEV -----+!--------------------------!-+------------------------ 3.75E+09|... ..+... ... ......... .... ..................... ..|V. HIGH 2.16E+09|... ..+... ..V ..V...... .... ..................... ..|V. HIGH 1.25E+09|... ..+... ..V ..V...... .... ....VVV.............. ..|V. HIGH 7.18E+08|... ..+... ..V .HV...... .... ...HVVVVH............ ..|High 4.14E+08|... ..+... HHV HHV...... .... ...HVVVVH...........H ..|Moderate 2.38E+08|... ..+... HHV HHVM..... .... ...HVVVVH..MMM......H ..| 1.37E+08|... ..+... HHV HHVM..MM. .... ...HVVVVHMMMMM.....MH ..| 7.92E+07|... ..+... HHV HHVMM.MM. .... ...HVVVVHMMMMMM....MH ..| 4.56E+07|... ..+... HHV HHVMMMMM. .... ...HVVVVHMMMMMM...MMH ..|Normal 2.63E+07|N.. ..+... HHV HHVMMMMM. .... .NNHVVVVHMMMMMM..NMMH ..| 1.52E+07|NN. ..+... HHV HHVMMMMMN .... .NNHVVVVHMMMMMM..NMMH NN| 8.74E+06|NN. ..+... HHV HHVMMMMMN NN.. .NNHVVVVHMMMMMM..NMMH NN| 5.04E+06|NNN NNn... HHV HHVMMMMMN NNN. .NNHVVVVHMMMMMMN.NMMH NN| 2.91E+06|NNN NNn... HHV HHVMMMMMN NNNN NNNHVVVVHMMMMMMNNNMMH NN| 1.68E+06|NNN NNnNNN HHV HHVMMMMMN NNNN NNNHVVVVHMMMMMMNNNMMH NN| 9.73E+05|NNN NNnNNN HHV HHVMMMMMN NNNN NNNHVVVVHMMMMMMNNNMMH NN| -----+!--------------------------!-+------------------------ Sep Oct NOTES: "V" = Very High Fluence, "H" = High Fluence, etc, " " = No Data, "!" = Solar rotational boundary periods from current date. Electron fluence is flux integrated over time in units of cm^-2 day^-1 sr^-1 as measured by GOES-8. Fluence values that are moderate or higher have been correlated with satellite anomalies. Sustained high to very high fluence has been correlated with serious malfunctions. COPIES OF JOINT USAF/NOAA SESC SOLAR GEOPHYSICAL REPORTS ======================================================== REGIONS WITH SUNSPOTS. LOCATIONS VALID AT 25/2400Z OCTOBER ---------------------------------------------------------- NMBR LOCATION LO AREA Z LL NN MAG TYPE 7917 S10W00 015 0020 DRO 08 007 BETA 7918 N07E09 006 0080 CAO 03 009 BETA REGIONS DUE TO RETURN 26 OCTOBER TO 28 OCTOBER NMBR LAT LO NONE LISTING OF SOLAR ENERGETIC EVENTS FOR 25 OCTOBER, 1995 ------------------------------------------------------ BEGIN MAX END RGN LOC XRAY OP 245MHZ 10CM SWEEP NONE POSSIBLE CORONAL MASS EJECTION EVENTS FOR 25 OCTOBER, 1995 ---------------------------------------------------------- BEGIN MAX END LOCATION TYPE SIZE DUR II IV NO EVENTS OBSERVED INFERRED CORONAL HOLES. LOCATIONS VALID AT 25/2400Z --------------------------------------------------- ISOLATED HOLES AND POLAR EXTENSIONS EAST SOUTH WEST NORTH CAR TYPE POL AREA OBSN NONE VISIBLE SUMMARY OF FLARE EVENTS FOR THE PREVIOUS UTC DAY ------------------------------------------------ Date Begin Max End Xray Op Region Locn 2695 MHz 8800 MHz 15.4 GHz ------ ---- ---- ---- ---- -- ------ ------ --------- --------- --------- 23 Oct: 0315 0320 0326 B1.4 1713 1718 1725 B2.0 REGION FLARE STATISTICS FOR THE PREVIOUS UTC DAY ------------------------------------------------ C M X S 1 2 3 4 Total (%) -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- --- ------ Uncorrellated: 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 002 (100.0) Total Events: 002 optical and x-ray. EVENTS WITH SWEEPS AND/OR OPTICAL PHENOMENA FOR THE LAST UTC DAY ---------------------------------------------------------------- Date Begin Max End Xray Op Region Locn Sweeps/Optical Observations ------ ---- ---- ---- ---- -- ------ ------ --------------------------- NO EVENTS OBSERVED. NOTES: All times are in Universal Time (UT). Characters preceding begin, max, and end times are defined as: B = Before, U = Uncertain, A = After. All times associated with x-ray flares (ex. flares which produce associated x-ray bursts) refer to the begin, max, and end times of the x-rays. Flares which are not associated with x-ray signatures use the optical observations to determine the begin, max, and end times. Acronyms used to identify sweeps and optical phenomena include: II = Type II Sweep Frequency Event III = Type III Sweep IV = Type IV Sweep V = Type V Sweep Continuum = Continuum Radio Event Loop = Loop Prominence System, Spray = Limb Spray, Surge = Bright Limb Surge, EPL = Eruptive Prominence on the Limb. ** End of Daily Report ** /\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\ DAILY SUMMARY OF SOLAR GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY 26 OCTOBER, 1995 /\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\ (Based In-Part On SESC Observational Data) SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY INDICES FOR 26 OCTOBER, 1995 ----------------------------------------------------------- !!BEGIN!! (1.0) S.T.D. Solar Geophysical Data Broadcast for DAY 299, 10/26/95 10.7 FLUX=073.9 90-AVG=075 SSN=030 BKI=0112 0111 BAI=002 BGND-XRAY=A2.0 FLU1=2.8E+05 FLU10=1.8E+04 PKI=1112 2122 PAI=005 BOU-DEV=002,005,005,012,004,005,007,008 DEV-AVG=006 NT SWF=00:000 XRAY-MAX= A3.1 @ 1131UT XRAY-MIN= A1.2 @ 2355UT XRAY-AVG= A1.7 NEUTN-MAX= +003% @ 2135UT NEUTN-MIN= -001% @ 1010UT NEUTN-AVG= +0.9% PCA-MAX= +0.1DB @ 1405UT PCA-MIN= -0.3DB @ 1600UT PCA-AVG= -0.0DB BOUTF-MAX=55186NT @ 1135UT BOUTF-MIN=55165NT @ 1636UT BOUTF-AVG=55180NT GOES7-MAX=P:+000NT@ 0000UT GOES7-MIN=N:+000NT@ 0000UT G7-AVG=+083,+000,+000 GOES6-MAX=P:+000NT@ 0000UT GOES6-MIN=N:+000NT@ 0000UT G6-AVG=+000,+000,+000 FLUXFCST=STD:075,075,072;SESC:075,075,072 BAI/PAI-FCST=005,005,015/008,008,010 KFCST=2223 3222 2223 3222 27DAY-AP=005,005 27DAY-KP=1122 2110 0122 2112 WARNINGS= ALERTS= !!END-DATA!! NOTE: The Effective Sunspot Number for 25 OCT 95 was 13.9. The Full Kp Indices for 26 OCT 95 are: 1+ 1o 1- 2- 2o 1+ 2- 2o The 3-Hr Ap Indices for 26 OCT 95 are: 5 4 3 6 7 5 7 7 Greater than 2 MeV Electron Fluence for 26 OCT is: 3.0E+07 DRAO 10.7 cm Solar Radio Flux at 18Z, 20Z, 22Z: 73.6, 73.9, 75.0 sfu. SYNOPSIS OF ACTIVITY -------------------- Solar activity was very low. The two active regions remaining on the disk, 7917 (S08W18) and 7918 (N08W05), continue to decay. Solar activity forecast: solar activity is expected to be very low. STD: Solar WIND data was received from 20:14 to 22:06 UTC and indicated a stable solar wind velocity that varied from 345 to 360 km/sec. Density was steady near 12 to 15 p/cm^3 and the Bz IMF component was northward between +1 and +6 nT throughout the period. The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours at middle latitudes, with a single unsettled interval recorded at high latitudes. The greater than 2 MeV electrons were just above the high level threshold for approx. 3-4 hours toward the end of the reporting period, but have since settled back to moderate levels. Geophysical activity forecast: the geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet for the next two days, moving up to unsettled on day three. Event probabilities 27 oct-29 oct Class M 01/01/01 Class X 01/01/01 Proton 01/01/01 PCAF Green Geomagnetic activity probabilities 27 oct-29 oct A. Middle Latitudes Active 20/20/30 Minor Storm 10/10/15 Major-Severe Storm 05/05/05 B. High Latitudes Active 25/25/40 Minor Storm 15/15/15 Major-Severe Storm 05/05/10 HF propagation conditions were normal over all regions. Normal propagation should continue through 19 October inclusive. ENERGETIC ELECTRON FLUENCE 60-DAY HISTORY AT GREATER THAN 2 MEV ----+-!--------------------------!+------------------------- 3.75E+09|.. ...+.. ... ......... .... ..................... ...|V. HIGH 2.16E+09|.. ...+.. ..V ..V...... .... ..................... ...|V. HIGH 1.25E+09|.. ...+.. ..V ..V...... .... ....VVV.............. ...|V. HIGH 7.18E+08|.. ...+.. ..V .HV...... .... ...HVVVVH............ ...|High 4.14E+08|.. ...+.. HHV HHV...... .... ...HVVVVH...........H ...|Moderate 2.38E+08|.. ...+.. HHV HHVM..... .... ...HVVVVH..MMM......H ...| 1.37E+08|.. ...+.. HHV HHVM..MM. .... ...HVVVVHMMMMM.....MH ...| 7.92E+07|.. ...+.. HHV HHVMM.MM. .... ...HVVVVHMMMMMM....MH ...| 4.56E+07|.. ...+.. HHV HHVMMMMM. .... ...HVVVVHMMMMMM...MMH ...|Normal 2.63E+07|.. ...+.. HHV HHVMMMMM. .... .NNHVVVVHMMMMMM..NMMH ..N| 1.52E+07|N. ...+.. HHV HHVMMMMMN .... .NNHVVVVHMMMMMM..NMMH NNN| 8.74E+06|N. ...+.. HHV HHVMMMMMN NN.. .NNHVVVVHMMMMMM..NMMH NNN| 5.04E+06|NN NNN+.. HHV HHVMMMMMN NNN. .NNHVVVVHMMMMMMN.NMMH NNN| 2.91E+06|NN NNN+.. HHV HHVMMMMMN NNNN NNNHVVVVHMMMMMMNNNMMH NNN| 1.68E+06|NN NNNnNN HHV HHVMMMMMN NNNN NNNHVVVVHMMMMMMNNNMMH NNN| 9.73E+05|NN NNNnNN HHV HHVMMMMMN NNNN NNNHVVVVHMMMMMMNNNMMH NNN| ----+-!--------------------------!+------------------------- Sep Oct NOTES: "V" = Very High Fluence, "H" = High Fluence, etc, " " = No Data, "!" = Solar rotational boundary periods from current date. Electron fluence is flux integrated over time in units of cm^-2 day^-1 sr^-1 as measured by GOES-8. Fluence values that are moderate or higher have been correlated with satellite anomalies. Sustained high to very high fluence has been correlated with serious malfunctions. COPIES OF JOINT USAF/NOAA SESC SOLAR GEOPHYSICAL REPORTS ======================================================== REGIONS WITH SUNSPOTS. LOCATIONS VALID AT 26/2400Z OCTOBER ---------------------------------------------------------- NMBR LOCATION LO AREA Z LL NN MAG TYPE 7917 S09W18 020 0000 AXX 00 001 ALPHA 7918 N09W03 005 0050 CAO 07 009 BETA REGIONS DUE TO RETURN 27 OCTOBER TO 29 OCTOBER NMBR LAT LO 7911 N07 235 LISTING OF SOLAR ENERGETIC EVENTS FOR 26 OCTOBER, 1995 ------------------------------------------------------ BEGIN MAX END RGN LOC XRAY OP 245MHZ 10CM SWEEP 0301 0302 0302 120 0501 0501 0502 200 POSSIBLE CORONAL MASS EJECTION EVENTS FOR 26 OCTOBER, 1995 ---------------------------------------------------------- BEGIN MAX END LOCATION TYPE SIZE DUR II IV NO EVENTS OBSERVED INFERRED CORONAL HOLES. LOCATIONS VALID AT 26/2400Z --------------------------------------------------- ISOLATED HOLES AND POLAR EXTENSIONS EAST SOUTH WEST NORTH CAR TYPE POL AREA OBSN NONE VISIBLE SUMMARY OF FLARE EVENTS FOR THE PREVIOUS UTC DAY ------------------------------------------------ Date Begin Max End Xray Op Region Locn 2695 MHz 8800 MHz 15.4 GHz ------ ---- ---- ---- ---- -- ------ ------ --------- --------- --------- 25 Oct: 1632 1640 1645 B1.6 REGION FLARE STATISTICS FOR THE PREVIOUS UTC DAY ------------------------------------------------ C M X S 1 2 3 4 Total (%) -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- --- ------ Uncorrellated: 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 001 (100.0) Total Events: 001 optical and x-ray. EVENTS WITH SWEEPS AND/OR OPTICAL PHENOMENA FOR THE LAST UTC DAY ---------------------------------------------------------------- Date Begin Max End Xray Op Region Locn Sweeps/Optical Observations ------ ---- ---- ---- ---- -- ------ ------ --------------------------- NO EVENTS OBSERVED. NOTES: All times are in Universal Time (UT). Characters preceding begin, max, and end times are defined as: B = Before, U = Uncertain, A = After. All times associated with x-ray flares (ex. flares which produce associated x-ray bursts) refer to the begin, max, and end times of the x-rays. Flares which are not associated with x-ray signatures use the optical observations to determine the begin, max, and end times. Acronyms used to identify sweeps and optical phenomena include: II = Type II Sweep Frequency Event III = Type III Sweep IV = Type IV Sweep V = Type V Sweep Continuum = Continuum Radio Event Loop = Loop Prominence System, Spray = Limb Spray, Surge = Bright Limb Surge, EPL = Eruptive Prominence on the Limb. ** End of Daily Report ** /\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\ DAILY SUMMARY OF SOLAR GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY 27 OCTOBER, 1995 /\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\ (Based In-Part On SESC Observational Data) SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY INDICES FOR 27 OCTOBER, 1995 ----------------------------------------------------------- !!BEGIN!! (1.0) S.T.D. Solar Geophysical Data Broadcast for DAY 300, 10/27/95 10.7 FLUX=074.0 90-AVG=075 SSN=015 BKI=1221 1212 BAI=005 BGND-XRAY=A1.4 FLU1=2.3E+05 FLU10=1.7E+04 PKI=2111 2321 PAI=006 BOU-DEV=007,017,015,008,008,010,008,011 DEV-AVG=011 NT SWF=00:000 XRAY-MAX= A2.2 @ 1631UT XRAY-MIN= A1.1 @ 0807UT XRAY-AVG= A1.5 NEUTN-MAX= +003% @ 0145UT NEUTN-MIN= -002% @ 0750UT NEUTN-AVG= +0.3% PCA-MAX= +0.1DB @ 1100UT PCA-MIN= -0.3DB @ 1110UT PCA-AVG= -0.0DB BOUTF-MAX=55182NT @ 1338UT BOUTF-MIN=55170NT @ 1738UT BOUTF-AVG=55178NT GOES7-MAX=P:+000NT@ 0000UT GOES7-MIN=N:+000NT@ 0000UT G7-AVG=+071,+000,+000 GOES6-MAX=P:+000NT@ 0000UT GOES6-MIN=N:+000NT@ 0000UT G6-AVG=+000,+000,+000 FLUXFCST=STD:073,072,070;SESC:073,072,070 BAI/PAI-FCST=005,010,020/008,010,020 KFCST=2223 2122 2212 2134 27DAY-AP=005,004 27DAY-KP=0122 2112 1011 1112 WARNINGS= ALERTS= !!END-DATA!! NOTE: The Effective Sunspot Number for 26 OCT 95 is not available. The Full Kp Indices for 27 OCT 95 are: 2- 1o 1+ 1- 2+ 3- 2- 1+ The 3-Hr Ap Indices for 27 OCT 95 are: 6 4 5 3 9 12 6 5 Greater than 2 MeV Electron Fluence for 27 OCT is: 1.3E+07 DRAO 10.7 cm Solar Radio Flux at 18Z, 20Z, 22Z: 74.2, 74.0, 74.7 sfu. SYNOPSIS OF ACTIVITY -------------------- Solar activity remained very low. Only one small spotted region was visible. A faint filament located between S32E65-S35E81 faded during the 26/2249-2334Z interval. Solar activity forecast: solar activity should continue at a very low level for the next three days. STD: A correction to yesterdays (26 October) solar WIND report regarding the observed Bz component is necessary. The Bz component was not northward throughout the entire period, but was weakly southward (0 to -3 nT) from 20:22 to 20:48 UTC. Data for 27 October are not yet available for inclusion in this report. The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled. Isolated active conditions were observed at some high latitude sites between 27/1200-1800Z. Energetic electron fluxes were moderate. Geophysical activity forecast: the geomagnetic field should be quiet to unsettled on 28-29 Oct. A recurrent disturbance is forecast to begin late on 29 Oct and continue through 30 Oct. Unsettled to active levels are expected on 30 Oct with occasional minor storming possible at mid and high latitudes. Event probabilities 28 oct-30 oct Class M 01/01/01 Class X 01/01/01 Proton 01/01/01 PCAF Green Geomagnetic activity probabilities 28 oct-30 oct A. Middle Latitudes Active 10/30/40 Minor Storm 05/15/15 Major-Severe Storm 01/10/10 B. High Latitudes Active 10/25/45 Minor Storm 05/15/10 Major-Severe Storm 01/05/05 HF propagation conditions continued normal over all regions. No changes are expected until 30 October when upper-middle and high latitude regions are expected to experience increased signal degradation (particularly on night-sector transauroral paths). ENERGETIC ELECTRON FLUENCE 60-DAY HISTORY AT GREATER THAN 2 MEV ---+--!--------------------------!-------------------------- 3.75E+09|. ....+. ... ......... .... ..................... ....|V. HIGH 2.16E+09|. ....+. ..V ..V...... .... ..................... ....|V. HIGH 1.25E+09|. ....+. ..V ..V...... .... ....VVV.............. ....|V. HIGH 7.18E+08|. ....+. ..V .HV...... .... ...HVVVVH............ ....|High 4.14E+08|. ....+. HHV HHV...... .... ...HVVVVH...........H ....|Moderate 2.38E+08|. ....+. HHV HHVM..... .... ...HVVVVH..MMM......H ....| 1.37E+08|. ....+. HHV HHVM..MM. .... ...HVVVVHMMMMM.....MH ....| 7.92E+07|. ....+. HHV HHVMM.MM. .... ...HVVVVHMMMMMM....MH ....| 4.56E+07|. ....+. HHV HHVMMMMM. .... ...HVVVVHMMMMMM...MMH ....|Normal 2.63E+07|. ....+. HHV HHVMMMMM. .... .NNHVVVVHMMMMMM..NMMH ..N.| 1.52E+07|. ....+. HHV HHVMMMMMN .... .NNHVVVVHMMMMMM..NMMH NNN.| 8.74E+06|. ....+. HHV HHVMMMMMN NN.. .NNHVVVVHMMMMMM..NMMH NNNN| 5.04E+06|N NNN.+. HHV HHVMMMMMN NNN. .NNHVVVVHMMMMMMN.NMMH NNNN| 2.91E+06|N NNN.+. HHV HHVMMMMMN NNNN NNNHVVVVHMMMMMMNNNMMH NNNN| 1.68E+06|N NNNNnN HHV HHVMMMMMN NNNN NNNHVVVVHMMMMMMNNNMMH NNNN| 9.73E+05|N NNNNnN HHV HHVMMMMMN NNNN NNNHVVVVHMMMMMMNNNMMH NNNN| ---+--!--------------------------!-------------------------- Sep Oct NOTES: "V" = Very High Fluence, "H" = High Fluence, etc, " " = No Data, "!" = Solar rotational boundary periods from current date. Electron fluence is flux integrated over time in units of cm^-2 day^-1 sr^-1 as measured by GOES-8. Fluence values that are moderate or higher have been correlated with satellite anomalies. Sustained high to very high fluence has been correlated with serious malfunctions. COPIES OF JOINT USAF/NOAA SESC SOLAR GEOPHYSICAL REPORTS ======================================================== REGIONS WITH SUNSPOTS. LOCATIONS VALID AT 27/2400Z OCTOBER ---------------------------------------------------------- NMBR LOCATION LO AREA Z LL NN MAG TYPE 7918 N08W18 006 0030 CRO 08 005 BETA 7917 S09W31 019 PLAGE REGIONS DUE TO RETURN 28 OCTOBER TO 30 OCTOBER NMBR LAT LO 7911 N07 235 LISTING OF SOLAR ENERGETIC EVENTS FOR 27 OCTOBER, 1995 ------------------------------------------------------ BEGIN MAX END RGN LOC XRAY OP 245MHZ 10CM SWEEP SWF NO EVENTS OBSERVED POSSIBLE CORONAL MASS EJECTION EVENTS FOR 27 OCTOBER, 1995 ---------------------------------------------------------- BEGIN MAX END LOCATION TYPE SIZE DUR II IV NO EVENTS OBSERVED INFERRED CORONAL HOLES. LOCATIONS VALID AT 27/2400Z --------------------------------------------------- ISOLATED HOLES AND POLAR EXTENSIONS EAST SOUTH WEST NORTH CAR TYPE POL AREA OBSN NONE VISIBLE SUMMARY OF FLARE EVENTS FOR THE PREVIOUS UTC DAY ------------------------------------------------ Date Begin Max End Xray Op Region Locn 2695 MHz 8800 MHz 15.4 GHz ------ ---- ---- ---- ---- -- ------ ------ --------- --------- --------- 25 Oct: 1632 1640 1645 B1.6 REGION FLARE STATISTICS FOR THE PREVIOUS UTC DAY ------------------------------------------------ C M X S 1 2 3 4 Total (%) -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- --- ------ Uncorrellated: 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 001 (100.0) Total Events: 001 optical and x-ray. EVENTS WITH SWEEPS AND/OR OPTICAL PHENOMENA FOR THE LAST UTC DAY ---------------------------------------------------------------- Date Begin Max End Xray Op Region Locn Sweeps/Optical Observations ------ ---- ---- ---- ---- -- ------ ------ --------------------------- NO EVENTS OBSERVED. NOTES: All times are in Universal Time (UT). Characters preceding begin, max, and end times are defined as: B = Before, U = Uncertain, A = After. All times associated with x-ray flares (ex. flares which produce associated x-ray bursts) refer to the begin, max, and end times of the x-rays. Flares which are not associated with x-ray signatures use the optical observations to determine the begin, max, and end times. Acronyms used to identify sweeps and optical phenomena include: II = Type II Sweep Frequency Event III = Type III Sweep IV = Type IV Sweep V = Type V Sweep Continuum = Continuum Radio Event Loop = Loop Prominence System, Spray = Limb Spray, Surge = Bright Limb Surge, EPL = Eruptive Prominence on the Limb. ** End of Daily Report ** /\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\ DAILY SUMMARY OF SOLAR GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY 28 OCTOBER, 1995 /\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\ (Based In-Part On SESC Observational Data) SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY INDICES FOR 28 OCTOBER, 1995 ----------------------------------------------------------- !!BEGIN!! (1.0) S.T.D. Solar Geophysical Data Broadcast for DAY 301, 10/28/95 10.7 FLUX=073.8 90-AVG=075 SSN=015 BKI=1211 1001 BAI=002 BGND-XRAY=A1.7 FLU1=2.0E+05 FLU10=1.8E+04 PKI=1111 1111 PAI=003 BOU-DEV=009,013,005,006,006,004,004,008 DEV-AVG=006 NT SWF=00:000 XRAY-MAX= A3.0 @ 1510UT XRAY-MIN= A1.1 @ 2344UT XRAY-AVG= A1.6 NEUTN-MAX= +003% @ 0210UT NEUTN-MIN= -001% @ 2305UT NEUTN-AVG= +0.1% PCA-MAX= +0.1DB @ 1115UT PCA-MIN= -0.6DB @ 1325UT PCA-AVG= -0.0DB BOUTF-MAX=55182NT @ 1400UT BOUTF-MIN=55164NT @ 1957UT BOUTF-AVG=55176NT GOES7-MAX=P:+000NT@ 0000UT GOES7-MIN=N:+000NT@ 0000UT G7-AVG=+076,+000,+000 GOES6-MAX=P:+000NT@ 0000UT GOES6-MIN=N:+000NT@ 0000UT G6-AVG=+000,+000,+000 FLUXFCST=STD:073,073,072;SESC:073,073,072 BAI/PAI-FCST=010,020,025/010,020,045 KFCST=2212 2134 3433 4334 27DAY-AP=004,012 27DAY-KP=1011 1112 3033 4223 WARNINGS=*GSTRM;*AURMIDWRN ALERTS= !!END-DATA!! NOTE: The Effective Sunspot Number for 27 OCT 95 was 14.0. The Full Kp Indices for 28 OCT 95 are: 1+ 1- 1- 1- 1- 1+ 1+ 1o The 3-Hr Ap Indices for 28 OCT 95 are: 5 3 3 3 3 5 5 4 Greater than 2 MeV Electron Fluence for 28 OCT is: 6.8E+06 DRAO 10.7 cm Solar Radio Flux at 18Z, 20Z, 22Z: 73.7, 73.8, 74.1 sfu. SYNOPSIS OF ACTIVITY -------------------- Solar activity remained very low. Region 7918 (N09W31) continued to decay and is now a small B-class group. Solar activity forecast: solar activity should remain very low for the next three days. The geomagnetic field was quiet. Geophysical activity forecast: the geomagnetic field should continue quiet until late on 29 Oct when a recurrent disturbance is forecast to begin. In general, unsettled to minor storm conditions are forecast for 30-31 Oct. Isolated major storming is possible during that interval. Some high latitude sites may experience severe storming. Event probabilities 29 oct-31 oct Class M 01/01/01 Class X 01/01/01 Proton 01/01/01 PCAF Green Geomagnetic activity probabilities 29 oct-31 oct A. Middle Latitudes Active 30/35/30 Minor Storm 20/25/30 Major-Severe Storm 15/15/15 B. High Latitudes Active 25/30/30 Minor Storm 15/25/20 Major-Severe Storm 05/15/25 HF propagation conditions were normal over all regions. Normal conditions are forecast to continue for 29 October. Beginning on 30 October, propagation is expected to deteriorate substantially on polar, high, and middle latitude circuits. High and polar latitude paths may see periods of useless propagation (particularly on 31 October and 01 November). Middle latitude circuits are expected to see periods of poor to very poor propagation (again, particularly on night-sector paths of 31 October and 01 November). Low latitude circuits should see slightly below-normal propagation with increased fading particularly on night-crossing circuits. No noticeable improvements are expected until at least 02 November. Full recovery is not expected to BEGIN until about 06 November. ENERGETIC ELECTRON FLUENCE 60-DAY HISTORY AT GREATER THAN 2 MEV --+---!-------------------------+!-------------------------- 3.75E+09| .....+ ... ......... .... +.................... .....|V. HIGH 2.16E+09| .....+ ..V ..V...... .... +.................... .....|V. HIGH 1.25E+09| .....+ ..V ..V...... .... +...VVV.............. .....|V. HIGH 7.18E+08| .....+ ..V .HV...... .... +..HVVVVH............ .....|High 4.14E+08| .....+ HHV HHV...... .... +..HVVVVH...........H .....|Moderate 2.38E+08| .....+ HHV HHVM..... .... +..HVVVVH..MMM......H .....| 1.37E+08| .....+ HHV HHVM..MM. .... +..HVVVVHMMMMM.....MH .....| 7.92E+07| .....+ HHV HHVMM.MM. .... +..HVVVVHMMMMMM....MH .....| 4.56E+07| .....+ HHV HHVMMMMM. .... +..HVVVVHMMMMMM...MMH .....|Normal 2.63E+07| .....+ HHV HHVMMMMM. .... +NNHVVVVHMMMMMM..NMMH ..N..| 1.52E+07| .....+ HHV HHVMMMMMN .... +NNHVVVVHMMMMMM..NMMH NNN..| 8.74E+06| .....+ HHV HHVMMMMMN NN.. +NNHVVVVHMMMMMM..NMMH NNNN.| 5.04E+06| NNN..+ HHV HHVMMMMMN NNN. +NNHVVVVHMMMMMMN.NMMH NNNNN| 2.91E+06| NNN..+ HHV HHVMMMMMN NNNN nNNHVVVVHMMMMMMNNNMMH NNNNN| 1.68E+06| NNNNNn HHV HHVMMMMMN NNNN nNNHVVVVHMMMMMMNNNMMH NNNNN| 9.73E+05| NNNNNn HHV HHVMMMMMN NNNN nNNHVVVVHMMMMMMNNNMMH NNNNN| --+---!-------------------------+!-------------------------- Sep Oct NOTES: "V" = Very High Fluence, "H" = High Fluence, etc, " " = No Data, "!" = Solar rotational boundary periods from current date. Electron fluence is flux integrated over time in units of cm^-2 day^-1 sr^-1 as measured by GOES-8. Fluence values that are moderate or higher have been correlated with satellite anomalies. Sustained high to very high fluence has been correlated with serious malfunctions. COPIES OF JOINT USAF/NOAA SESC SOLAR GEOPHYSICAL REPORTS ======================================================== REGIONS WITH SUNSPOTS. LOCATIONS VALID AT 28/2400Z OCTOBER ---------------------------------------------------------- NMBR LOCATION LO AREA Z LL NN MAG TYPE 7918 N09W32 007 0020 BXO 06 005 BETA 7917 S09W44 019 PLAGE REGIONS DUE TO RETURN 29 OCTOBER TO 31 OCTOBER NMBR LAT LO 7911 N07 235 LISTING OF SOLAR ENERGETIC EVENTS FOR 28 OCTOBER, 1995 ------------------------------------------------------ BEGIN MAX END RGN LOC XRAY OP 245MHZ 10CM SWEEP SWF NO EVENTS OBSERVED POSSIBLE CORONAL MASS EJECTION EVENTS FOR 28 OCTOBER, 1995 ---------------------------------------------------------- BEGIN MAX END LOCATION TYPE SIZE DUR II IV NO EVENTS OBSERVED INFERRED CORONAL HOLES. LOCATIONS VALID AT 28/2400Z --------------------------------------------------- ISOLATED HOLES AND POLAR EXTENSIONS EAST SOUTH WEST NORTH CAR TYPE POL AREA OBSN NONE VISIBLE SUMMARY OF FLARE EVENTS FOR THE PREVIOUS UTC DAY ------------------------------------------------ Date Begin Max End Xray Op Region Locn 2695 MHz 8800 MHz 15.4 GHz ------ ---- ---- ---- ---- -- ------ ------ --------- --------- --------- NO EVENTS OBSERVED. REGION FLARE STATISTICS FOR THE PREVIOUS UTC DAY ------------------------------------------------ C M X S 1 2 3 4 Total (%) -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- --- ------ Uncorrellated: 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 000 ( 0.0) Total Events: 000 optical and x-ray. EVENTS WITH SWEEPS AND/OR OPTICAL PHENOMENA FOR THE LAST UTC DAY ---------------------------------------------------------------- Date Begin Max End Xray Op Region Locn Sweeps/Optical Observations ------ ---- ---- ---- ---- -- ------ ------ --------------------------- NO EVENTS OBSERVED. NOTES: All times are in Universal Time (UT). Characters preceding begin, max, and end times are defined as: B = Before, U = Uncertain, A = After. All times associated with x-ray flares (ex. flares which produce associated x-ray bursts) refer to the begin, max, and end times of the x-rays. Flares which are not associated with x-ray signatures use the optical observations to determine the begin, max, and end times. Acronyms used to identify sweeps and optical phenomena include: II = Type II Sweep Frequency Event III = Type III Sweep IV = Type IV Sweep V = Type V Sweep Continuum = Continuum Radio Event Loop = Loop Prominence System, Spray = Limb Spray, Surge = Bright Limb Surge, EPL = Eruptive Prominence on the Limb. ** End of Daily Report ** /\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\ DAILY SUMMARY OF SOLAR GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY 29 OCTOBER, 1995 /\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\ (Based In-Part On SESC Observational Data) SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY INDICES FOR 29 OCTOBER, 1995 ----------------------------------------------------------- !!BEGIN!! (1.0) S.T.D. Solar Geophysical Data Broadcast for DAY 302, 10/29/95 10.7 FLUX=073.8 90-AVG=075 SSN=012 BKI=0132 2101 BAI=004 BGND-XRAY=A1.3 FLU1=1.8E+05 FLU10=1.8E+04 PKI=1231 2011 PAI=005 BOU-DEV=004,006,022,010,010,008,002,005 DEV-AVG=008 NT SWF=00:000 XRAY-MAX= A3.4 @ 2135UT XRAY-MIN= A1.1 @ 2305UT XRAY-AVG= A1.4 NEUTN-MAX= +003% @ 0140UT NEUTN-MIN= -002% @ 2225UT NEUTN-AVG= +0.1% PCA-MAX= +0.1DB @ 1140UT PCA-MIN= -0.6DB @ 1355UT PCA-AVG= -0.0DB BOUTF-MAX=55182NT @ 2353UT BOUTF-MIN=55162NT @ 1742UT BOUTF-AVG=55176NT GOES7-MAX=P:+000NT@ 0000UT GOES7-MIN=N:+000NT@ 0000UT G7-AVG=+070,+000,+000 GOES6-MAX=P:+000NT@ 0000UT GOES6-MIN=N:+000NT@ 0000UT G6-AVG=+000,+000,+000 FLUXFCST=STD:073,073,074;SESC:073,073,074 BAI/PAI-FCST=020,025,020/020,045,030 KFCST=3433 4334 5536 5554 27DAY-AP=012,019 27DAY-KP=3033 4223 4334 4433 WARNINGS=*GSTRM;*AURMIDWRN ALERTS= !!END-DATA!! NOTE: The Effective Sunspot Number for 28 OCT 95 was 17.0. The Full Kp Indices for 29 OCT 95 are: 1- 2- 3- 1+ 2- 0+ 1o 1o The 3-Hr Ap Indices for 29 OCT 95 are: 3 6 11 5 6 2 4 4 Greater than 2 MeV Electron Fluence for 29 OCT is: 5.5E+06 DRAO 10.7 cm Solar Radio Flux at 18Z, 20Z, 22Z: 73.8, 73.8, 72.7 sfu. SYNOPSIS OF ACTIVITY -------------------- Solar activity continued at a very low level. Region 7918 (N10W45) is the only spotted Region visible and continued decay will make this region spotless tomorrow. Solar activity forecast: solar activity should remain very low for the next three days. The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled. Solar WIND data available at the end of the period did not indicate the arrival of a high speed/low density recurrent stream. Geophysical activity forecast: the geomagnetic field should become disturbed for the forecast period. Unsettled to active conditions are expected with periods of minor-major storming possible. Some high latitude sites may experience brief periods of severe storming. Event probabilities 30 oct-01 nov Class M 01/01/01 Class X 01/01/01 Proton 01/01/01 PCAF Green Geomagnetic activity probabilities 30 oct-01 nov A. Middle Latitudes Active 35/30/40 Minor Storm 20/30/20 Major-Severe Storm 10/10/05 B. High Latitudes Active 35/35/30 Minor Storm 20/20/30 Major-Severe Storm 10/15/05 HF propagation conditions were normal over all regions. Normal conditions should continue through most of 30 October. By the end of the UTC day of 30 October, minor signal degradation should begin affecting high latitude paths. On 31 October, more serious degradation is expected from the middle to polar latitude paths. During 31 October and 01 November, high and upper-middle latitude paths may see periods of useless propagation. ENERGETIC ELECTRON FLUENCE 60-DAY HISTORY AT GREATER THAN 2 MEV -+----!------------------------+-!-------------------------- 3.75E+09|...... ... ......... .... .+................... ......|V. HIGH 2.16E+09|...... ..V ..V...... .... .+................... ......|V. HIGH 1.25E+09|...... ..V ..V...... .... .+..VVV.............. ......|V. HIGH 7.18E+08|...... ..V .HV...... .... .+.HVVVVH............ ......|High 4.14E+08|...... HHV HHV...... .... .+.HVVVVH...........H ......|Moderate 2.38E+08|...... HHV HHVM..... .... .+.HVVVVH..MMM......H ......| 1.37E+08|...... HHV HHVM..MM. .... .+.HVVVVHMMMMM.....MH ......| 7.92E+07|...... HHV HHVMM.MM. .... .+.HVVVVHMMMMMM....MH ......| 4.56E+07|...... HHV HHVMMMMM. .... .+.HVVVVHMMMMMM...MMH ......|Normal 2.63E+07|...... HHV HHVMMMMM. .... .nNHVVVVHMMMMMM..NMMH ..N...| 1.52E+07|...... HHV HHVMMMMMN .... .nNHVVVVHMMMMMM..NMMH NNN...| 8.74E+06|...... HHV HHVMMMMMN NN.. .nNHVVVVHMMMMMM..NMMH NNNN..| 5.04E+06|NNN... HHV HHVMMMMMN NNN. .nNHVVVVHMMMMMMN.NMMH NNNNNN| 2.91E+06|NNN... HHV HHVMMMMMN NNNN NnNHVVVVHMMMMMMNNNMMH NNNNNN| 1.68E+06|NNNNNN HHV HHVMMMMMN NNNN NnNHVVVVHMMMMMMNNNMMH NNNNNN| 9.73E+05|NNNNNN HHV HHVMMMMMN NNNN NnNHVVVVHMMMMMMNNNMMH NNNNNN| -+----!------------------------+-!-------------------------- Sep Oct NOTES: "V" = Very High Fluence, "H" = High Fluence, etc, " " = No Data, "!" = Solar rotational boundary periods from current date. Electron fluence is flux integrated over time in units of cm^-2 day^-1 sr^-1 as measured by GOES-8. Fluence values that are moderate or higher have been correlated with satellite anomalies. Sustained high to very high fluence has been correlated with serious malfunctions. COPIES OF JOINT USAF/NOAA SESC SOLAR GEOPHYSICAL REPORTS ======================================================== REGIONS WITH SUNSPOTS. LOCATIONS VALID AT 29/2400Z OCTOBER ---------------------------------------------------------- NMBR LOCATION LO AREA Z LL NN MAG TYPE 7918 N10W46 008 0010 AXX 02 002 ALPHA 7917 S09W57 019 PLAGE REGIONS DUE TO RETURN 30 OCTOBER TO 01 NOVEMBER NMBR LAT LO 7914 N08 199 LISTING OF SOLAR ENERGETIC EVENTS FOR 29 OCTOBER, 1995 ------------------------------------------------------ BEGIN MAX END RGN LOC XRAY OP 245MHZ 10CM SWEEP SWF NO EVENTS OBSERVED POSSIBLE CORONAL MASS EJECTION EVENTS FOR 29 OCTOBER, 1995 ---------------------------------------------------------- BEGIN MAX END LOCATION TYPE SIZE DUR II IV NO EVENTS OBSERVED INFERRED CORONAL HOLES. LOCATIONS VALID AT 29/2400Z --------------------------------------------------- ISOLATED HOLES AND POLAR EXTENSIONS EAST SOUTH WEST NORTH CAR TYPE POL AREA OBSN NO DATA SUMMARY OF FLARE EVENTS FOR THE PREVIOUS UTC DAY ------------------------------------------------ Date Begin Max End Xray Op Region Locn 2695 MHz 8800 MHz 15.4 GHz ------ ---- ---- ---- ---- -- ------ ------ --------- --------- --------- NO EVENTS OBSERVED. REGION FLARE STATISTICS FOR THE PREVIOUS UTC DAY ------------------------------------------------ C M X S 1 2 3 4 Total (%) -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- --- ------ Uncorrellated: 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 000 ( 0.0) Total Events: 000 optical and x-ray. EVENTS WITH SWEEPS AND/OR OPTICAL PHENOMENA FOR THE LAST UTC DAY ---------------------------------------------------------------- Date Begin Max End Xray Op Region Locn Sweeps/Optical Observations ------ ---- ---- ---- ---- -- ------ ------ --------------------------- NO EVENTS OBSERVED. NOTES: All times are in Universal Time (UT). Characters preceding begin, max, and end times are defined as: B = Before, U = Uncertain, A = After. All times associated with x-ray flares (ex. flares which produce associated x-ray bursts) refer to the begin, max, and end times of the x-rays. Flares which are not associated with x-ray signatures use the optical observations to determine the begin, max, and end times. Acronyms used to identify sweeps and optical phenomena include: II = Type II Sweep Frequency Event III = Type III Sweep IV = Type IV Sweep V = Type V Sweep Continuum = Continuum Radio Event Loop = Loop Prominence System, Spray = Limb Spray, Surge = Bright Limb Surge, EPL = Eruptive Prominence on the Limb. ** End of Daily Report ** /\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\ DAILY SUMMARY OF SOLAR GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY 30 OCTOBER, 1995 /\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\ (Based In-Part On SESC Observational Data) SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY INDICES FOR 30 OCTOBER, 1995 ----------------------------------------------------------- !!BEGIN!! (1.0) S.T.D. Solar Geophysical Data Broadcast for DAY 303, 10/30/95 10.7 FLUX=073.3 90-AVG=075 SSN=024 BKI=1012 3433 BAI=010 BGND-XRAY=A1.2 FLU1=2.7E+05 FLU10=1.8E+04 PKI=1012 4423 PAI=010 BOU-DEV=005,004,005,016,034,055,036,024 DEV-AVG=022 NT SWF=00:000 XRAY-MAX= A1.5 @ 0005UT XRAY-MIN= A1.0 @ 1416UT XRAY-AVG= A1.2 NEUTN-MAX= +002% @ 1650UT NEUTN-MIN= -002% @ 1550UT NEUTN-AVG= -0.1% PCA-MAX= +0.1DB @ 1415UT PCA-MIN= -0.2DB @ 1050UT PCA-AVG= -0.0DB BOUTF-MAX=55186NT @ 1127UT BOUTF-MIN=55153NT @ 1635UT BOUTF-AVG=55177NT GOES7-MAX=P:+000NT@ 0000UT GOES7-MIN=N:+000NT@ 0000UT G7-AVG=+057,+000,+000 GOES6-MAX=P:+000NT@ 0000UT GOES6-MIN=N:+000NT@ 0000UT G6-AVG=+000,+000,+000 FLUXFCST=STD:072,072,070;SESC:072,072,070 BAI/PAI-FCST=025,020,020/038,025,020 KFCST=2536 5454 4245 4244 27DAY-AP=019,050 27DAY-KP=4334 4433 3447 6534 WARNINGS=*GSTRM;*AURMIDWRN ALERTS= !!END-DATA!! NOTE: The Effective Sunspot Number for 29 OCT 95 was 19.0. The Full Kp Indices for 30 OCT 95 are: 1o 0+ 1- 2- 4o 4- 2+ 3- The 3-Hr Ap Indices for 30 OCT 95 are: 4 2 3 6 29 24 9 12 Greater than 2 MeV Electron Fluence for 30 OCT is: 2.8E+06 DRAO 10.7 cm Solar Radio Flux at 18Z, 20Z, 22Z: 73.2, 73.3, 71.7 sfu. SYNOPSIS OF ACTIVITY -------------------- Solar activity continued at a very low level. A small region emerged near S11E09, numbered as Region 7919. A moderate size filament near N04W38 disappeared between 29/1330-30/0641Z. The filament is reforming. Solar activity forecast: solar activity should continue at a very low level for the next three days. STD: Solar WIND data was received today between 16:48 and 19:20 UTC. Solar wind velocities were between 381 and 416 km/sec. Densities ranged from 5 to 8 p/cm^3 and the Bz IMF component was mostly southward with weak excursions. Data for 29 October was received between 20:12 and 22:38 UTC and indicated a solar wind velocity of between 330 and 345 km/sec. Densities ranged from 8 to 14 p/cm^3 and the Bz IMF component was northward for the entire period. On 28 October, the WIND spacecraft reported observations between 20:18 and 23:10 UTC. During that period, the solar wind velocity ranged from 314 to 349 km/sec. Density was steady between 6 and 8 p/cm^3 and the Bz IMF component was also generally northward. The limbs today (30 October) remain quiet in x-rays. The geomagnetic field was quiet until near 30/1030Z when the field became unstable. Unsettled to active conditions followed with minor to major storming observed at high latitudes between 30/1330-1800Z. Energetic electron fluxes were low to moderate. Geophysical activity forecast: the geomagnetic field should remain disturbed for the next three days. Generally active to minor storm conditions are forecast. Periods of major storming are expected for high latitudes. Energetic electron fluxes at geosynchronous orbit should increase to high levels late on 31 Oct. Event probabilities 31 oct-02 nov Class M 01/01/01 Class X 01/01/01 Proton 01/01/01 PCAF Green Geomagnetic activity probabilities 31 oct-02 nov A. Middle Latitudes Active 35/35/30 Minor Storm 20/20/30 Major-Severe Storm 10/10/05 B. High Latitudes Active 35/35/30 Minor Storm 20/25/30 Major-Severe Storm 10/10/05 HF propagation conditions were normal over all regions. The anticipated distubance appears to have arrived about half-way through the UTC day, but has not become as vigorous as expected (yet). Peak activity could occur anytime over the next 24 to 48 hours (through 01 November), but likely will not be as strong as anticipated. Propagation will therefore probably remain good to fair for the middle latitudes, and fair to poor for the high and polar latitudes. ENERGETIC ELECTRON FLUENCE 60-DAY HISTORY AT GREATER THAN 2 MEV +-----!-----------------------+--!-------------------------- 3.75E+09|..... +.. ......... .... ..+.................. .......|V. HIGH 2.16E+09|..... +.V ..V...... .... ..+.................. .......|V. HIGH 1.25E+09|..... +.V ..V...... .... ..+.VVV.............. .......|V. HIGH 7.18E+08|..... +.V .HV...... .... ..+HVVVVH............ .......|High 4.14E+08|..... hHV HHV...... .... ..+HVVVVH...........H .......|Moderate 2.38E+08|..... hHV HHVM..... .... ..+HVVVVH..MMM......H .......| 1.37E+08|..... hHV HHVM..MM. .... ..+HVVVVHMMMMM.....MH .......| 7.92E+07|..... hHV HHVMM.MM. .... ..+HVVVVHMMMMMM....MH .......| 4.56E+07|..... hHV HHVMMMMM. .... ..+HVVVVHMMMMMM...MMH .......|Normal 2.63E+07|..... hHV HHVMMMMM. .... .NnHVVVVHMMMMMM..NMMH ..N....| 1.52E+07|..... hHV HHVMMMMMN .... .NnHVVVVHMMMMMM..NMMH NNN....| 8.74E+06|..... hHV HHVMMMMMN NN.. .NnHVVVVHMMMMMM..NMMH NNNN...| 5.04E+06|NN... hHV HHVMMMMMN NNN. .NnHVVVVHMMMMMMN.NMMH NNNNNN.| 2.91E+06|NN... hHV HHVMMMMMN NNNN NNnHVVVVHMMMMMMNNNMMH NNNNNN.| 1.68E+06|NNNNN hHV HHVMMMMMN NNNN NNnHVVVVHMMMMMMNNNMMH NNNNNNN| 9.73E+05|NNNNN hHV HHVMMMMMN NNNN NNnHVVVVHMMMMMMNNNMMH NNNNNNN| +-----!-----------------------+--!-------------------------- Sep Oct NOTES: "V" = Very High Fluence, "H" = High Fluence, etc, " " = No Data, "!" = Solar rotational boundary periods from current date. Electron fluence is flux integrated over time in units of cm^-2 day^-1 sr^-1 as measured by GOES-8. Fluence values that are moderate or higher have been correlated with satellite anomalies. Sustained high to very high fluence has been correlated with serious malfunctions. COPIES OF JOINT USAF/NOAA SESC SOLAR GEOPHYSICAL REPORTS ======================================================== REGIONS WITH SUNSPOTS. LOCATIONS VALID AT 30/2400Z OCTOBER ---------------------------------------------------------- NMBR LOCATION LO AREA Z LL NN MAG TYPE 7918 N15W58 007 0000 AXX 00 001 ALPHA 7919 S11E07 302 0000 BXO 02 003 BETA 7917 S09W70 019 PLAGE REGIONS DUE TO RETURN 31 OCTOBER TO 02 NOVEMBER NMBR LAT LO 7914 N08 199 7910 S09 180 LISTING OF SOLAR ENERGETIC EVENTS FOR 30 OCTOBER, 1995 ------------------------------------------------------ BEGIN MAX END RGN LOC XRAY OP 245MHZ 10CM SWEEP NONE POSSIBLE CORONAL MASS EJECTION EVENTS FOR 30 OCTOBER, 1995 ---------------------------------------------------------- BEGIN MAX END LOCATION TYPE SIZE DUR II IV NO EVENTS OBSERVED INFERRED CORONAL HOLES. LOCATIONS VALID AT 30/2400Z --------------------------------------------------- ISOLATED HOLES AND POLAR EXTENSIONS EAST SOUTH WEST NORTH CAR TYPE POL AREA OBSN NONE VISIBLE SUMMARY OF FLARE EVENTS FOR THE PREVIOUS UTC DAY ------------------------------------------------ Date Begin Max End Xray Op Region Locn 2695 MHz 8800 MHz 15.4 GHz ------ ---- ---- ---- ---- -- ------ ------ --------- --------- --------- NO EVENTS OBSERVED. REGION FLARE STATISTICS FOR THE PREVIOUS UTC DAY ------------------------------------------------ C M X S 1 2 3 4 Total (%) -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- --- ------ Uncorrellated: 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 000 ( 0.0) Total Events: 000 optical and x-ray. EVENTS WITH SWEEPS AND/OR OPTICAL PHENOMENA FOR THE LAST UTC DAY ---------------------------------------------------------------- Date Begin Max End Xray Op Region Locn Sweeps/Optical Observations ------ ---- ---- ---- ---- -- ------ ------ --------------------------- NO EVENTS OBSERVED. NOTES: All times are in Universal Time (UT). Characters preceding begin, max, and end times are defined as: B = Before, U = Uncertain, A = After. All times associated with x-ray flares (ex. flares which produce associated x-ray bursts) refer to the begin, max, and end times of the x-rays. Flares which are not associated with x-ray signatures use the optical observations to determine the begin, max, and end times. Acronyms used to identify sweeps and optical phenomena include: II = Type II Sweep Frequency Event III = Type III Sweep IV = Type IV Sweep V = Type V Sweep Continuum = Continuum Radio Event Loop = Loop Prominence System, Spray = Limb Spray, Surge = Bright Limb Surge, EPL = Eruptive Prominence on the Limb. ** End of Daily Report ** /\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\ DAILY SUMMARY OF SOLAR GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY 31 OCTOBER, 1995 /\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\ (Based In-Part On SESC Observational Data) SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY INDICES FOR 31 OCTOBER, 1995 ----------------------------------------------------------- !!BEGIN!! (1.0) S.T.D. Solar Geophysical Data Broadcast for DAY 304, 10/31/95 10.7 FLUX=073.3 90-AVG=075 SSN=000 BKI=4333 2323 BAI=014 BGND-XRAY=A1.1 FLU1=1.5E+05 FLU10=1.6E+04 PKI=4332 2323 PAI=013 BOU-DEV=043,038,092,026,019,035,019,034 DEV-AVG=038 NT SWF=00:000 XRAY-MAX= A2.2 @ 0256UT XRAY-MIN= A1.0 @ 2234UT XRAY-AVG= A1.2 NEUTN-MAX= +001% @ 1925UT NEUTN-MIN= -003% @ 1200UT NEUTN-AVG= -0.3% PCA-MAX= +0.1DB @ 1140UT PCA-MIN= -0.2DB @ 1755UT PCA-AVG= -0.0DB BOUTF-MAX=55185NT @ 1434UT BOUTF-MIN=55164NT @ 1830UT BOUTF-AVG=55176NT GOES7-MAX=P:+000NT@ 0000UT GOES7-MIN=N:+000NT@ 0000UT G7-AVG=+060,+000,+000 GOES6-MAX=P:+000NT@ 0000UT GOES6-MIN=N:+000NT@ 0000UT G6-AVG=+000,+000,+000 FLUXFCST=STD:070,070,072;SESC:070,070,072 BAI/PAI-FCST=025,020,020/020,020,020 KFCST=3345 4322 3345 4322 27DAY-AP=050,026 27DAY-KP=3447 6534 4445 5224 WARNINGS=*GSTRM;*AURMIDWRN ALERTS= !!END-DATA!! NOTE: The Effective Sunspot Number for 30 OCT 95 was 20.0. The Full Kp Indices for 31 OCT 95 are: 4o 3+ 3o 2o 2+ 3o 2- 3- The 3-Hr Ap Indices for 31 OCT 95 are: 26 19 16 9 9 14 7 12 Greater than 2 MeV Electron Fluence for 31 OCT is: 4.0E+06 DRAO 10.7 cm Solar Radio Flux at 18Z, 20Z, 22Z: 72.6, 73.3, 71.0 sfu. SYNOPSIS OF ACTIVITY -------------------- Solar activity was very low. No significant activity was observed over the past 24 hours. Solar activity forecast: solar activity is expected to be very low for the next three days. STD: Solar WIND data was received between 20:55 and 23:23 UTC. Solar wind velocities ranged from 350 to 450 km/sec. Density fluctuated around the 11 p/cm^3 mark and the Bz IMF component fluctuated between weak northern and weak southern orientations. The solar disk and limbs were generally quiet both optically and in x-rays. The geomagnetic field has been at mostly unsettled to active levels for the past 24 hours. Isolated periods of minor to major storm conditions were observed at middle and high latitudes. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at mostly normal levels. Geophysical activity forecast: the geomagnetic field is expected to be disturbed for the next three days. Generally active to minor storm conditions are forecast with some periods of high latitude major storming. Energetic electron fluxes should increase to high levels by 01 Nov. Event probabilities 01 nov-03 nov Class M 01/01/01 Class X 01/01/01 Proton 01/01/01 PCAF Green Geomagnetic activity probabilities 01 nov-03 nov A. Middle Latitudes Active 35/25/25 Minor Storm 15/15/15 Major-Severe Storm 05/05/05 B. High Latitudes Active 35/25/25 Minor Storm 10/15/15 Major-Severe Storm 05/05/05 HF propagation conditions were near-normal on low latitude paths to slightly below-normal on middle latitude paths. High and polar latitude paths experienced gradually deteriorating conditions with increasingly frequent poor periods of propagation and MUF depressions of between 20 and 40 percent below normal. Similar conditions are expected through the next 24 to 48 hours with below-normal propagation expected probably through 05 November for the high and polar latitudes and the middle-latitude night-sectors. ENERGETIC ELECTRON FLUENCE 60-DAY HISTORY AT GREATER THAN 2 MEV ------!----------------------+---!-------------------------- 3.75E+09|.... .+. ......... .... ...+................. ........|V. HIGH 2.16E+09|.... .+V ..V...... .... ...+................. ........|V. HIGH 1.25E+09|.... .+V ..V...... .... ...+VVV.............. ........|V. HIGH 7.18E+08|.... .+V .HV...... .... ...hVVVVH............ ........|High 4.14E+08|.... HhV HHV...... .... ...hVVVVH...........H ........|Moderate 2.38E+08|.... HhV HHVM..... .... ...hVVVVH..MMM......H ........| 1.37E+08|.... HhV HHVM..MM. .... ...hVVVVHMMMMM.....MH ........| 7.92E+07|.... HhV HHVMM.MM. .... ...hVVVVHMMMMMM....MH ........| 4.56E+07|.... HhV HHVMMMMM. .... ...hVVVVHMMMMMM...MMH ........|Normal 2.63E+07|.... HhV HHVMMMMM. .... .NNhVVVVHMMMMMM..NMMH ..N.....| 1.52E+07|.... HhV HHVMMMMMN .... .NNhVVVVHMMMMMM..NMMH NNN.....| 8.74E+06|.... HhV HHVMMMMMN NN.. .NNhVVVVHMMMMMM..NMMH NNNN....| 5.04E+06|N... HhV HHVMMMMMN NNN. .NNhVVVVHMMMMMMN.NMMH NNNNNN..| 2.91E+06|N... HhV HHVMMMMMN NNNN NNNhVVVVHMMMMMMNNNMMH NNNNNN.N| 1.68E+06|NNNN HhV HHVMMMMMN NNNN NNNhVVVVHMMMMMMNNNMMH NNNNNNNN| 9.73E+05|NNNN HhV HHVMMMMMN NNNN NNNhVVVVHMMMMMMNNNMMH NNNNNNNN| ------!----------------------+---!-------------------------- Oct NOTES: "V" = Very High Fluence, "H" = High Fluence, etc, " " = No Data, "!" = Solar rotational boundary periods from current date. Electron fluence is flux integrated over time in units of cm^-2 day^-1 sr^-1 as measured by GOES-8. Fluence values that are moderate or higher have been correlated with satellite anomalies. Sustained high to very high fluence has been correlated with serious malfunctions. COPIES OF JOINT USAF/NOAA SESC SOLAR GEOPHYSICAL REPORTS ======================================================== REGIONS WITH SUNSPOTS. LOCATIONS VALID AT 31/2400Z OCTOBER ---------------------------------------------------------- NMBR LOCATION LO AREA Z LL NN MAG TYPE 7917 S09W83 019 PLAGE 7918 N15W71 007 PLAGE 7919 S11W06 302 PLAGE REGIONS DUE TO RETURN 01 NOVEMBER TO 03 NOVEMBER NMBR LAT LO 7914 N08 199 7910 S10 180 LISTING OF SOLAR ENERGETIC EVENTS FOR 31 OCTOBER, 1995 ------------------------------------------------------ BEGIN MAX END RGN LOC XRAY OP 245MHZ 10CM SWEEP NONE POSSIBLE CORONAL MASS EJECTION EVENTS FOR 31 OCTOBER, 1995 ---------------------------------------------------------- BEGIN MAX END LOCATION TYPE SIZE DUR II IV NO EVENTS OBSERVED INFERRED CORONAL HOLES. LOCATIONS VALID AT 31/2400Z --------------------------------------------------- ISOLATED HOLES AND POLAR EXTENSIONS EAST SOUTH WEST NORTH CAR TYPE POL AREA OBSN NONE VISIBLE SUMMARY OF FLARE EVENTS FOR THE PREVIOUS UTC DAY ------------------------------------------------ Date Begin Max End Xray Op Region Locn 2695 MHz 8800 MHz 15.4 GHz ------ ---- ---- ---- ---- -- ------ ------ --------- --------- --------- NO EVENTS OBSERVED. REGION FLARE STATISTICS FOR THE PREVIOUS UTC DAY ------------------------------------------------ C M X S 1 2 3 4 Total (%) -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- --- ------ Uncorrellated: 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 000 ( 0.0) Total Events: 000 optical and x-ray. EVENTS WITH SWEEPS AND/OR OPTICAL PHENOMENA FOR THE LAST UTC DAY ---------------------------------------------------------------- Date Begin Max End Xray Op Region Locn Sweeps/Optical Observations ------ ---- ---- ---- ---- -- ------ ------ --------------------------- NO EVENTS OBSERVED. NOTES: All times are in Universal Time (UT). Characters preceding begin, max, and end times are defined as: B = Before, U = Uncertain, A = After. All times associated with x-ray flares (ex. flares which produce associated x-ray bursts) refer to the begin, max, and end times of the x-rays. Flares which are not associated with x-ray signatures use the optical observations to determine the begin, max, and end times. Acronyms used to identify sweeps and optical phenomena include: II = Type II Sweep Frequency Event III = Type III Sweep IV = Type IV Sweep V = Type V Sweep Continuum = Continuum Radio Event Loop = Loop Prominence System, Spray = Limb Spray, Surge = Bright Limb Surge, EPL = Eruptive Prominence on the Limb. ** End of Daily Report ** /\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\ DAILY SUMMARY OF SOLAR GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY 01 NOVEMBER, 1995 /\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\ (Based In-Part On SESC Observational Data) SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY INDICES FOR 01 NOVEMBER, 1995 ------------------------------------------------------------ NOTE: The background x-ray flux is estimated. Fluence values are not available due to a computer problem. !!BEGIN!! (1.0) S.T.D. Solar Geophysical Data Broadcast for DAY 305, 11/01/95 10.7 FLUX=074.5 90-AVG=075 SSN=000 BKI=4353 4232 BAI=020 BGND-XRAY=A1.2 FLU1=*.*E+** FLU10=*.*E+** PKI=4453 4233 PAI=023 BOU-DEV=043,038,092,034,060,019,035,019 DEV-AVG=042 NT SWF=00:000 XRAY-MAX= A2.7 @ 0831UT XRAY-MIN= A1.0 @ 2359UT XRAY-AVG= A1.3 NEUTN-MAX= +001% @ 1655UT NEUTN-MIN= -003% @ 1210UT NEUTN-AVG= -0.4% PCA-MAX= +0.1DB @ 1235UT PCA-MIN= -0.2DB @ 1150UT PCA-AVG= +0.0DB BOUTF-MAX=55183NT @ 2314UT BOUTF-MIN=55159NT @ 0623UT BOUTF-AVG=55173NT GOES7-MAX=P:+000NT@ 0000UT GOES7-MIN=N:+000NT@ 0000UT G7-AVG=+051,+000,+000 GOES6-MAX=P:+000NT@ 0000UT GOES6-MIN=N:+000NT@ 0000UT G6-AVG=+000,+000,+000 FLUXFCST=STD:072,071,073;SESC:072,071,073 BAI/PAI-FCST=020,020,025/015,020,045 KFCST=3345 4322 2334 3332 27DAY-AP=026,022 27DAY-KP=4445 5224 2445 3324 WARNINGS=*GSTRM;*AURMIDWRN ALERTS= !!END-DATA!! NOTE: The Effective Sunspot Number for 31 OCT 95 is not available. The Full Kp Indices for 01 OCT 95 are: 4- 4o 5- 3+ 4+ 2o 3+ 3o The 3-Hr Ap Indices for 01 OCT 95 are: 23 26 40 18 33 8 19 15 Greater than 2 MeV Electron Fluence value is not available. DRAO 10.7 cm Solar Radio Flux at 18Z, 20Z, 22Z: 74.2, 74.5, 75.3 sfu. SYNOPSIS OF ACTIVITY -------------------- Solar activity was very low as the disk remains spotless. Solar activity forecast: solar activity is expected to be very low for the next three days. STD: No solar WIND data is yet available for inclusion in this report due to computer problems. We will try to provide the data in the report for tommorrow. Weak surging was observed on the northwest limb near N16 between 14:10 and 16:00 UTC. Some weak activity was also observed in Region 7919. There is some indications that a region may be approaching the east limb. Some coronal loops have become visible over the last 24 hours. The suspected region (possibly old Region 7910) is probably two or three days away from coming into view. The geomagnetic field, at middle latitudes, was at mostly quiet to active levels with a brief period of minor storm conditions observed between 01/06-09UT. At high latitudes, the field was mostly unsettled to severe storm. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at normal to moderate levels. Geophysical activity forecast: the geomagnetic field is expected to remain disturbed for the next three days. Generally active to minor storm conditions are expected with some periods of high latitude major to severe storming. Energetic electron fluxes should increase to high levels by 2 Nov. Event probabilities 02 nov-04 nov Class M 01/01/01 Class X 01/01/01 Proton 01/01/01 PCAF Green Geomagnetic activity probabilities 02 nov-04 nov A. Middle Latitudes Active 35/25/25 Minor Storm 15/15/15 Major-Severe Storm 05/05/05 B. High Latitudes Active 35/25/25 Minor Storm 10/15/15 Major-Severe Storm 05/05/05 HF propagation conditions were near-normal over all but the upper-middle to polar latitude paths. Conditions over these regions were slightly below-normal with increased fading, multipathing and absorption. MUF depressions were also reported between 20 and 40 percent below normal. Similar conditions are expected through 04 November inclusive. ENERGETIC ELECTRON FLUENCE 60-DAY HISTORY AT GREATER THAN 2 MEV ------!---------------------+----!-------------------------+ 3.75E+09|... ..+ ......... .... ....+................ ........ |V. HIGH 2.16E+09|... ..v ..V...... .... ....+................ ........ |V. HIGH 1.25E+09|... ..v ..V...... .... ....vVV.............. ........ |V. HIGH 7.18E+08|... ..v .HV...... .... ...HvVVVH............ ........ |High 4.14E+08|... HHv HHV...... .... ...HvVVVH...........H ........ |Moderate 2.38E+08|... HHv HHVM..... .... ...HvVVVH..MMM......H ........ | 1.37E+08|... HHv HHVM..MM. .... ...HvVVVHMMMMM.....MH ........ | 7.92E+07|... HHv HHVMM.MM. .... ...HvVVVHMMMMMM....MH ........ | 4.56E+07|... HHv HHVMMMMM. .... ...HvVVVHMMMMMM...MMH ........ |Normal 2.63E+07|... HHv HHVMMMMM. .... .NNHvVVVHMMMMMM..NMMH ..N..... | 1.52E+07|... HHv HHVMMMMMN .... .NNHvVVVHMMMMMM..NMMH NNN..... | 8.74E+06|... HHv HHVMMMMMN NN.. .NNHvVVVHMMMMMM..NMMH NNNN.... | 5.04E+06|... HHv HHVMMMMMN NNN. .NNHvVVVHMMMMMMN.NMMH NNNNNN.. | 2.91E+06|... HHv HHVMMMMMN NNNN NNNHvVVVHMMMMMMNNNMMH NNNNNN.N | 1.68E+06|NNN HHv HHVMMMMMN NNNN NNNHvVVVHMMMMMMNNNMMH NNNNNNNN | 9.73E+05|NNN HHv HHVMMMMMN NNNN NNNHvVVVHMMMMMMNNNMMH NNNNNNNN | ------!---------------------+----!-------------------------+ Oct Nov NOTES: "V" = Very High Fluence, "H" = High Fluence, etc, " " = No Data, "!" = Solar rotational boundary periods from current date. Electron fluence is flux integrated over time in units of cm^-2 day^-1 sr^-1 as measured by GOES-8. Fluence values that are moderate or higher have been correlated with satellite anomalies. Sustained high to very high fluence has been correlated with serious malfunctions. COPIES OF JOINT USAF/NOAA SESC SOLAR GEOPHYSICAL REPORTS ======================================================== REGIONS WITH SUNSPOTS. LOCATIONS VALID AT 01/2400Z NOVEMBER ------------------------------------------------------------ NMBR LOCATION LO AREA Z LL NM MAG TYPE 7918 N15W84 007 PLAGE 7919 S11W19 302 PLAGE REGIONS DUE TO RETURN 02 NOVEMBER TO 04 NOVEMBER NMBR LAT LO 7910 S09 180 LISTING OF SOLAR ENERGETIC EVENTS FOR 01 NOVEMBER, 1995 ------------------------------------------------------- BEGIN MAX END RGN LOC XRAY OP 245MHZ 10CM SWEEP NONE POSSIBLE CORONAL MASS EJECTION EVENTS FOR 01 NOVEMBER, 1995 ----------------------------------------------------------- BEGIN MAX END LOCATION TYPE SIZE DUR II IV NO EVENTS OBSERVED INFERRED CORONAL HOLES. LOCATIONS VALID AT 01/2400Z --------------------------------------------------- ISOLATED HOLES AND POLAR EXTENSIONS EAST SOUTH WEST NORTH CAR TYPE POL AREA OBSN NONE VISIBLE SUMMARY OF FLARE EVENTS FOR THE PREVIOUS UTC DAY ------------------------------------------------ Date Begin Max End Xray Op Region Locn 2695 MHz 8800 MHz 15.4 GHz ------ ---- ---- ---- ---- -- ------ ------ --------- --------- --------- NO EVENTS OBSERVED. REGION FLARE STATISTICS FOR THE PREVIOUS UTC DAY ------------------------------------------------ C M X S 1 2 3 4 Total (%) -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- --- ------ Uncorrellated: 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 000 ( 0.0) Total Events: 000 optical and x-ray. EVENTS WITH SWEEPS AND/OR OPTICAL PHENOMENA FOR THE LAST UTC DAY ---------------------------------------------------------------- Date Begin Max End Xray Op Region Locn Sweeps/Optical Observations ------ ---- ---- ---- ---- -- ------ ------ --------------------------- NO EVENTS OBSERVED. NOTES: All times are in Universal Time (UT). Characters preceding begin, max, and end times are defined as: B = Before, U = Uncertain, A = After. All times associated with x-ray flares (ex. flares which produce associated x-ray bursts) refer to the begin, max, and end times of the x-rays. Flares which are not associated with x-ray signatures use the optical observations to determine the begin, max, and end times. Acronyms used to identify sweeps and optical phenomena include: II = Type II Sweep Frequency Event III = Type III Sweep IV = Type IV Sweep V = Type V Sweep Continuum = Continuum Radio Event Loop = Loop Prominence System, Spray = Limb Spray, Surge = Bright Limb Surge, EPL = Eruptive Prominence on the Limb. ** End of Daily Report ** /\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\ DAILY SUMMARY OF SOLAR GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY 02 NOVEMBER, 1995 /\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\ (Based In-Part On SESC Observational Data) SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY INDICES FOR 02 NOVEMBER, 1995 ------------------------------------------------------------ NOTE: The background x-ray flux was below class A1.0 levels today. Fluence data is not available due to a computer problem. !!BEGIN!! (1.0) S.T.D. Solar Geophysical Data Broadcast for DAY 306, 11/02/95 10.7 FLUX=073.0 90-AVG=075 SSN=000 BKI=1425 3321 BAI=015 BGND-XRAY=A1.0 FLU1=*.*E+** FLU10=*.*E+** PKI=2434 3321 PAI=015 BOU-DEV=060,030,018,079,021,014,010,005 DEV-AVG=029 NT SWF=00:000 XRAY-MAX= A1.9 @ 0539UT XRAY-MIN= A1.0 @ 2331UT XRAY-AVG= A1.2 NEUTN-MAX= +000% @ 0000UT NEUTN-MIN= +000% @ 0000UT NEUTN-AVG= +0.0% PCA-MAX= +0.0DB @ 0000UT PCA-MIN= +0.0DB @ 0000UT PCA-AVG= +0.0DB BOUTF-MAX=55190NT @ 0403UT BOUTF-MIN=55157NT @ 1108UT BOUTF-AVG=55174NT GOES7-MAX=P:+000NT@ 0000UT GOES7-MIN=N:+000NT@ 0000UT G7-AVG=+060,+000,+000 GOES6-MAX=P:+000NT@ 0000UT GOES6-MIN=N:+000NT@ 0000UT G6-AVG=+000,+000,+000 FLUXFCST=STD:072,074,076;SESC:072,074,076 BAI/PAI-FCST=020,025,020/020,045,025 KFCST=3345 4433 3445 5443 27DAY-AP=022,028 27DAY-KP=2445 3324 4565 4222 WARNINGS=*GSTRM;*AURMIDWRN ALERTS= !!END-DATA!! NOTE: The Effective Sunspot Number for 01 NOV 95 is not available. The Full Kp Indices for 02 NOV 95 are: 2+ 4+ 2o 4+ 3- 3- 2- 0+ The 3-Hr Ap Indices for 02 NOV 95 are: 11 37 7 38 12 13 6 2 Greater than 2 MeV Electron Fluence value is not available. DRAO 10.7 cm Solar Radio Flux at 18Z, 20Z, 22Z: 72.9, N/A, 73.8 sfu. SYNOPSIS OF ACTIVITY -------------------- Solar activity was very low. One new active region appeared on the disk during this reporting period at position S13E08, but has yet to be officially numbered due to computer problems. The region will be designated 7920 in the near future. Solar activity is expected to be very low for the next three days. STD: Solar WIND data between 20:25 and 22:55 UTC indicated steady solar wind velocities in the range of 490 to 510 km/sec. Densities were stable between 4 and 5 p/cm^3 and the Bz IMF component was mostly weakly northward in the +1 to +3 nT range. The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to minor storm levels at all latitudes for the past 24 hours. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at moderate to high levels. The geomagnetic field is expected to remain disturbed for the next three days, with generally active to minor storm levels prevailing at the middle latitudes, and some periods of high latitude major to severe storming. Energetic electron fluxes are expected to remain at moderate to high levels. Event probabilities 03 nov-05 nov Class M 01/01/01 Class X 01/01/01 Proton 01/01/01 PCAF Green Geomagnetic activity probabilities 03 nov-05 nov A. Middle Latitudes Active 20/15/15 Minor Storm 25/35/30 Major-Severe Storm 05/05/05 B. High Latitudes Active 35/20/30 Minor Storm 10/20/10 Major-Severe Storm 05/05/05 HF propagation conditions were near-normal over all but the high and polar latitude paths where frequent night-sector minor signal degradation was reported in the form of fading, multipathing and absorption due to increased geomagnetic and auroral activity. Similar conditions are expected to persist through 05 November inclusive. ENERGETIC ELECTRON FLUENCE 60-DAY HISTORY AT GREATER THAN 2 MEV ------!--------------------+-----!------------------------+- 3.75E+09|.. ... ......... .... .....+............... ........ |V. HIGH 2.16E+09|.. ..V ..V...... .... .....+............... ........ |V. HIGH 1.25E+09|.. ..V ..V...... .... ....VvV.............. ........ |V. HIGH 7.18E+08|.. ..V .HV...... .... ...HVvVVH............ ........ |High 4.14E+08|.. HHV HHV...... .... ...HVvVVH...........H ........ |Moderate 2.38E+08|.. HHV HHVM..... .... ...HVvVVH..MMM......H ........ | 1.37E+08|.. HHV HHVM..MM. .... ...HVvVVHMMMMM.....MH ........ | 7.92E+07|.. HHV HHVMM.MM. .... ...HVvVVHMMMMMM....MH ........ | 4.56E+07|.. HHV HHVMMMMM. .... ...HVvVVHMMMMMM...MMH ........ |Normal 2.63E+07|.. HHV HHVMMMMM. .... .NNHVvVVHMMMMMM..NMMH ..N..... | 1.52E+07|.. HHV HHVMMMMMN .... .NNHVvVVHMMMMMM..NMMH NNN..... | 8.74E+06|.. HHV HHVMMMMMN NN.. .NNHVvVVHMMMMMM..NMMH NNNN.... | 5.04E+06|.. HHV HHVMMMMMN NNN. .NNHVvVVHMMMMMMN.NMMH NNNNNN.. | 2.91E+06|.. HHV HHVMMMMMN NNNN NNNHVvVVHMMMMMMNNNMMH NNNNNN.N | 1.68E+06|NN HHV HHVMMMMMN NNNN NNNHVvVVHMMMMMMNNNMMH NNNNNNNN | 9.73E+05|NN HHV HHVMMMMMN NNNN NNNHVvVVHMMMMMMNNNMMH NNNNNNNN | ------!--------------------+-----!------------------------+- Oct Nov NOTES: "V" = Very High Fluence, "H" = High Fluence, etc, " " = No Data, "!" = Solar rotational boundary periods from current date. Electron fluence is flux integrated over time in units of cm^-2 day^-1 sr^-1 as measured by GOES-8. Fluence values that are moderate or higher have been correlated with satellite anomalies. Sustained high to very high fluence has been correlated with serious malfunctions. COPIES OF JOINT USAF/NOAA SESC SOLAR GEOPHYSICAL REPORTS ======================================================== REGIONS WITH SUNSPOTS. LOCATIONS VALID AT 02/2400Z NOVEMBER ----------------------------------------------------------- NMBR LOCATION LO AREA Z LL NN MAG TYPE 7920 S13E08 262 0000 BXO 03 002 BETA 7918 N15W97 006 PLAGE 7919 S11W32 301 PLAGE REGIONS DUE TO RETURN 03 NOVEMBER TO 05 NOVEMBER NMBR LAT LO 7910 S09 178 LISTING OF SOLAR ENERGETIC EVENTS FOR 02 NOVEMBER, 1995 ------------------------------------------------------- BEGIN MAX END RGN LOC XRAY OP 245MHZ 10CM SWEEP NONE POSSIBLE CORONAL MASS EJECTION EVENTS FOR 02 NOVEMBER, 1995 ----------------------------------------------------------- UT TIME OPTICAL XRAY RADIO BEGIN MAX END LOCATION TYPE SIZE DUR II IV NO EVENTS OBSERVED INFERRED CORONAL HOLES. LOCATIONS VALID AT 02/2400Z --------------------------------------------------- ISOLATED HOLES AND POLAR EXTENSIONS EAST SOUTH WEST NORTH CAR TYPE POL AREA OBSN NONE VISIBLE SUMMARY OF FLARE EVENTS FOR THE PREVIOUS UTC DAY ------------------------------------------------ Date Begin Max End Xray Op Region Locn 2695 MHz 8800 MHz 15.4 GHz ------ ---- ---- ---- ---- -- ------ ------ --------- --------- --------- NO EVENTS OBSERVED. REGION FLARE STATISTICS FOR THE PREVIOUS UTC DAY ------------------------------------------------ C M X S 1 2 3 4 Total (%) -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- --- ------ Uncorrellated: 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 000 ( 0.0) Total Events: 000 optical and x-ray. EVENTS WITH SWEEPS AND/OR OPTICAL PHENOMENA FOR THE LAST UTC DAY ---------------------------------------------------------------- Date Begin Max End Xray Op Region Locn Sweeps/Optical Observations ------ ---- ---- ---- ---- -- ------ ------ --------------------------- NO EVENTS OBSERVED. NOTES: All times are in Universal Time (UT). Characters preceding begin, max, and end times are defined as: B = Before, U = Uncertain, A = After. All times associated with x-ray flares (ex. flares which produce associated x-ray bursts) refer to the begin, max, and end times of the x-rays. Flares which are not associated with x-ray signatures use the optical observations to determine the begin, max, and end times. Acronyms used to identify sweeps and optical phenomena include: II = Type II Sweep Frequency Event III = Type III Sweep IV = Type IV Sweep V = Type V Sweep Continuum = Continuum Radio Event Loop = Loop Prominence System, Spray = Limb Spray, Surge = Bright Limb Surge, EPL = Eruptive Prominence on the Limb. ** End of Daily Report ** /\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\ DAILY SUMMARY OF SOLAR GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY 03 NOVEMBER, 1995 /\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\ (Based In-Part On SESC Observational Data) SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY INDICES FOR 03 NOVEMBER, 1995 ------------------------------------------------------------ NOTE: The estimated background x-ray flux was below class A1.0 levels. Computer problems continue to hamper data-collection efforts. !!BEGIN!! (1.0) S.T.D. Solar Geophysical Data Broadcast for DAY 307, 11/03/95 10.7 FLUX=072.6 90-AVG=075 SSN=000 BKI=1133 2210 BAI=006 BGND-XRAY=A1.0 FLU1=*.*E+** FLU10=*.*E+** PKI=0133 0110 PAI=005 BOU-DEV=005,006,038,025,015,012,006,002 DEV-AVG=013 NT SWF=00:000 XRAY-MAX= A4.6 @ 1237UT XRAY-MIN= A1.0 @ 1731UT XRAY-AVG= A1.2 NEUTN-MAX= +001% @ 1700UT NEUTN-MIN= -003% @ 1730UT NEUTN-AVG= -0.4% PCA-MAX= +0.1DB @ 1720UT PCA-MIN= +0.0DB @ 1730UT PCA-AVG= +0.0DB BOUTF-MAX=55185NT @ 1447UT BOUTF-MIN=55171NT @ 0753UT BOUTF-AVG=55180NT GOES7-MAX=P:+000NT@ 0000UT GOES7-MIN=N:+000NT@ 0000UT G7-AVG=+062,+000,+000 GOES6-MAX=P:+000NT@ 0000UT GOES6-MIN=N:+000NT@ 0000UT G6-AVG=+000,+000,+000 FLUXFCST=STD:074,077,080;SESC:074,077,080 BAI/PAI-FCST=020,015,012/033,020,015 KFCST=1115 5110 0115 5100 27DAY-AP=028,021 27DAY-KP=4565 4222 3335 5342 WARNINGS=*GSTRM;*AURMIDWRN ALERTS= !!END-DATA!! NOTE: The Effective Sunspot Number for 02 NOV 95 is not available. The Full Kp Indices for 02 NOV 95 are: 2+ 4+ 2o 4+ 3- 3- 2- 0+ The 3-Hr Ap Indices for 02 NOV 95 are: 11 37 7 38 12 13 6 2 Greater than 2 MeV Electron Fluence for 03 NOV is not available. DRAO 10.7 cm Solar Radio Flux at 18Z, 20Z, 22Z: 72.1, 72.6, 73.8 sfu. SYNOPSIS OF ACTIVITY -------------------- Solar activity was very low as the disk is spotless again. Solar activity forecast: solar activity is expected to be very low for the next three days. Old Region 7912 (lO148) is due to return within the next few days. On its last rotation, it produced 11 C-class and 3 M-class flares, including one proton event. STD: Solar WIND data is not available at the present time due to computer problems. We will try to provide the data for today in tommorrows report. Yohkoh x-ray imagery clearly show the approach of old Region 7912 near S11. Coronal loops were more prevalent in todays imagery. The rest of the disk was quiet except for a 6-degree filament that disappeared sometime prior to 15:06 UTC at S34W26. The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at moderate to high levels. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux has been at high levels since 02/0530UT. Geophysical activity forecast: the geomagnetic field is expected to be mostly unsettled to active for the next three days in response to a weak, favorably positioned, recurrent coronal hole feature. Event probabilities 04 nov-06 nov Class M 01/01/01 Class X 01/01/01 Proton 01/01/01 PCAF Green Geomagnetic activity probabilities 04 nov-06 nov A. Middle Latitudes Active 30/25/20 Minor Storm 20/15/10 Major-Severe Storm 05/05/05 B. High Latitudes Active 30/25/20 Minor Storm 20/10/10 Major-Severe Storm 05/15/05 HF propagation conditions improved over the last 24 hours to near-normal over all regions except some night-sector high latitude paths (primarily transauroral circuits). Conditions are expected to remain sporadically degraded on high and polar latitude circuits until about 06 November. Thereafter, generally normal conditions should be observed over all regions. ENERGETIC ELECTRON FLUENCE 60-DAY HISTORY AT GREATER THAN 2 MEV ------!-------------------+------!-----------------------+-- 3.75E+09|. ... ......... .... ......+.............. ........ .|V. HIGH 2.16E+09|. ..V ..V...... .... ......+.............. ........ .|V. HIGH 1.25E+09|. ..V ..V...... .... ....VVv.............. ........ .|V. HIGH 7.18E+08|. ..V .HV...... .... ...HVVvVH............ ........ .|High 4.14E+08|. HHV HHV...... .... ...HVVvVH...........H ........ .|Moderate 2.38E+08|. HHV HHVM..... .... ...HVVvVH..MMM......H ........ .| 1.37E+08|. HHV HHVM..MM. .... ...HVVvVHMMMMM.....MH ........ .| 7.92E+07|. HHV HHVMM.MM. .... ...HVVvVHMMMMMM....MH ........ .| 4.56E+07|. HHV HHVMMMMM. .... ...HVVvVHMMMMMM...MMH ........ .|Normal 2.63E+07|. HHV HHVMMMMM. .... .NNHVVvVHMMMMMM..NMMH ..N..... .| 1.52E+07|. HHV HHVMMMMMN .... .NNHVVvVHMMMMMM..NMMH NNN..... .| 8.73E+06|. HHV HHVMMMMMN NN.. .NNHVVvVHMMMMMM..NMMH NNNN.... .| 5.03E+06|. HHV HHVMMMMMN NNN. .NNHVVvVHMMMMMMN.NMMH NNNNNN.. .| 2.90E+06|. HHV HHVMMMMMN NNNN NNNHVVvVHMMMMMMNNNMMH NNNNNN.N .| 1.67E+06|N HHV HHVMMMMMN NNNN NNNHVVvVHMMMMMMNNNMMH NNNNNNNN .| 9.63E+05|N HHV HHVMMMMMN NNNN NNNHVVvVHMMMMMMNNNMMH NNNNNNNN .| ------!-------------------+------!-----------------------+-- Oct Nov NOTES: "V" = Very High Fluence, "H" = High Fluence, etc, " " = No Data, "!" = Solar rotational boundary periods from current date. Electron fluence is flux integrated over time in units of cm^-2 day^-1 sr^-1 as measured by GOES-8. Fluence values that are moderate or higher have been correlated with satellite anomalies. Sustained high to very high fluence has been correlated with serious malfunctions. COPIES OF JOINT USAF/NOAA SESC SOLAR GEOPHYSICAL REPORTS ======================================================== REGIONS WITH SUNSPOTS. LOCATIONS VALID AT 03/2400Z NOVEMBER ----------------------------------------------------------- NMBR LOCATION LO AREA Z LL NN MAG TYPE 7919 S11W45 301 PLAGE 7920 S13W06 262 PLAGE REGIONS DUE TO RETURN 04 NOVEMBER TO 06 NOVEMBER NMBR LAT LO 7912 S11 148 LISTING OF SOLAR ENERGETIC EVENTS FOR 03 NOVEMBER, 1995 ------------------------------------------------------- NO DATA DUE TO COMPUTER PROBLEM POSSIBLE CORONAL MASS EJECTION EVENTS FOR 03 NOVEMBER, 1995 ----------------------------------------------------------- (SEE FILAMENT DISAPPEARANCE NOTE IN SYNOPSIS) SUMMARY OF FLARE EVENTS FOR THE PREVIOUS UTC DAY ------------------------------------------------ Date Begin Max End Xray Op Region Locn 2695 MHz 8800 MHz 15.4 GHz ------ ---- ---- ---- ---- -- ------ ------ --------- --------- --------- NO EVENTS OBSERVED. REGION FLARE STATISTICS FOR THE PREVIOUS UTC DAY ------------------------------------------------ C M X S 1 2 3 4 Total (%) -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- --- ------ Uncorrellated: 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 000 ( 0.0) Total Events: 000 optical and x-ray. EVENTS WITH SWEEPS AND/OR OPTICAL PHENOMENA FOR THE LAST UTC DAY ---------------------------------------------------------------- Date Begin Max End Xray Op Region Locn Sweeps/Optical Observations ------ ---- ---- ---- ---- -- ------ ------ --------------------------- NO EVENTS OBSERVED. NOTES: All times are in Universal Time (UT). Characters preceding begin, max, and end times are defined as: B = Before, U = Uncertain, A = After. All times associated with x-ray flares (ex. flares which produce associated x-ray bursts) refer to the begin, max, and end times of the x-rays. Flares which are not associated with x-ray signatures use the optical observations to determine the begin, max, and end times. Acronyms used to identify sweeps and optical phenomena include: II = Type II Sweep Frequency Event III = Type III Sweep IV = Type IV Sweep V = Type V Sweep Continuum = Continuum Radio Event Loop = Loop Prominence System, Spray = Limb Spray, Surge = Bright Limb Surge, EPL = Eruptive Prominence on the Limb. ** End of Daily Report **